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In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) and total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.5% and 2.3%, respectively. On the contrary, both metrics declined year over year by 11.6% and 1.6%, respectively.
PulteGroup’s earnings have topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.8%.
Trend in PHM Stock’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PHM’s fourth-quarter EPS has declined to $2.78 from $2.79 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 20.6% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $3.50.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $4.31 billion, implying a 12.4% year-over-year decline.
PulteGroup's fourth-quarter top line is likely to have decreased year over year, primarily due to the ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market. The company is likely to have faced pressure from still-high mortgage rates, which continue to impact homebuyers’ intention to own a new house. Although the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, per Freddie Mac, showed a very modest declining trend between Oct. 2 and Dec. 31, the rate still stayed above 6%.
Although its balanced operating model, mortgage rate buydown program and favorable home pricing are likely to have supported its underlying prospects, the current uncertainties surrounding the housing market are expected to have overshadowed the top-line performance.
PHM expects home closings to be approximately 7,200-7,600 units, down from 8,103 units a year ago. Our model predicts home closings to decline 8.3% year over year to 7,429 units.
Segment-wise, for the fourth quarter, our model predicts overall Homebuilding revenues (which contributed 97.7% to total revenues in the third quarter of 2025) to decrease 12.2% year over year to $4.22 billion, due to lower home closings. Our model expects Financial Services revenues (which contributed 2.3% to total revenues in the third quarter) to tumble 4.4% year over year to $110 million.
However, PulteGroup’s emphasis on entry-level homes, disciplined land investments and a portfolio of affordable offerings likely provided some support to its revenue performance. The company’s pricing approach remains centered on maintaining affordability for homebuyers while adapting to evolving market conditions. It expects the average selling price (ASP) for the quarter to be between $560,000 and $570,000 compared with the year-ago level of $581,000. Our model predicts the ASP of homes closed to decrease 3.3% year over year to $561,700.
Margins
PulteGroup is likely to have faced significant margin pressure in the fourth quarter, due to the need for incentives to manage affordability concerns while maintaining profitability. The company's bottom line is expected to have decreased year over year in the fourth quarter, due to higher incentive costs stemming from competitive market dynamics. Moreover, elevated direct costs related to land sales also pressured the bottom line, alongside a decline in revenues.
The company expects home sales gross margin to be between 25.5% and 26% for the quarter, down from 27.5% reported in the year-ago period. PHM expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be between 9.5% and 9.7%, up from 4.2% a year ago. Our model predicts homebuilding gross margin to be 25.6% for the quarter, down 190 basis points (bps) from the year-ago period. We also predict SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be 9.6%, up 540 bps year over year.
Orders & Backlogs
Our model expects PulteGroup’s net new orders to inch down 0.9% year over year to 6,114 units in the fourth quarter. We expect the total backlog to decline 15.6% to 8,572 units, with the total backlog value declining 15.5% year over year to $5.49 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for PHM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
PHM’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.10%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of PHM: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Construction sector, which per our model, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.
Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Construction Partners’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 92%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 20% year over year.
Owens Corning (OC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Owens Corning’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 7.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 58.7% year over year.
AAON, Inc. (AAON - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
AAON’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 3.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 50% year over year.
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PulteGroup Gears to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
Key Takeaways
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM - Free Report) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) and total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.5% and 2.3%, respectively. On the contrary, both metrics declined year over year by 11.6% and 1.6%, respectively.
PulteGroup’s earnings have topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.8%.
Trend in PHM Stock’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PHM’s fourth-quarter EPS has declined to $2.78 from $2.79 over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 20.6% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $3.50.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $4.31 billion, implying a 12.4% year-over-year decline.
PulteGroup, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
PulteGroup, Inc. price-eps-surprise | PulteGroup, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Shape PulteGroup’s Q4 Earnings
Revenues
PulteGroup's fourth-quarter top line is likely to have decreased year over year, primarily due to the ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market. The company is likely to have faced pressure from still-high mortgage rates, which continue to impact homebuyers’ intention to own a new house. Although the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, per Freddie Mac, showed a very modest declining trend between Oct. 2 and Dec. 31, the rate still stayed above 6%.
Although its balanced operating model, mortgage rate buydown program and favorable home pricing are likely to have supported its underlying prospects, the current uncertainties surrounding the housing market are expected to have overshadowed the top-line performance.
PHM expects home closings to be approximately 7,200-7,600 units, down from 8,103 units a year ago. Our model predicts home closings to decline 8.3% year over year to 7,429 units.
Segment-wise, for the fourth quarter, our model predicts overall Homebuilding revenues (which contributed 97.7% to total revenues in the third quarter of 2025) to decrease 12.2% year over year to $4.22 billion, due to lower home closings. Our model expects Financial Services revenues (which contributed 2.3% to total revenues in the third quarter) to tumble 4.4% year over year to $110 million.
However, PulteGroup’s emphasis on entry-level homes, disciplined land investments and a portfolio of affordable offerings likely provided some support to its revenue performance. The company’s pricing approach remains centered on maintaining affordability for homebuyers while adapting to evolving market conditions. It expects the average selling price (ASP) for the quarter to be between $560,000 and $570,000 compared with the year-ago level of $581,000. Our model predicts the ASP of homes closed to decrease 3.3% year over year to $561,700.
Margins
PulteGroup is likely to have faced significant margin pressure in the fourth quarter, due to the need for incentives to manage affordability concerns while maintaining profitability. The company's bottom line is expected to have decreased year over year in the fourth quarter, due to higher incentive costs stemming from competitive market dynamics. Moreover, elevated direct costs related to land sales also pressured the bottom line, alongside a decline in revenues.
The company expects home sales gross margin to be between 25.5% and 26% for the quarter, down from 27.5% reported in the year-ago period. PHM expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be between 9.5% and 9.7%, up from 4.2% a year ago. Our model predicts homebuilding gross margin to be 25.6% for the quarter, down 190 basis points (bps) from the year-ago period. We also predict SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be 9.6%, up 540 bps year over year.
Orders & Backlogs
Our model expects PulteGroup’s net new orders to inch down 0.9% year over year to 6,114 units in the fourth quarter. We expect the total backlog to decline 15.6% to 8,572 units, with the total backlog value declining 15.5% year over year to $5.49 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for PHM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
PHM’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.10%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of PHM: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Construction sector, which per our model, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.
Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Construction Partners’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 92%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 20% year over year.
Owens Corning (OC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Owens Corning’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 7.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 58.7% year over year.
AAON, Inc. (AAON - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
AAON’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 3.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 50% year over year.