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The quarter is expected to reflect a continuation of the challenging housing and wood products environment seen through the back half of 2025.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 185.7%, and net sales topped the same by 4.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the top and bottom lines decreased 2.1% and 20%, respectively.
Weyerhaeuser’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and met on one occasion, with the average surprise being 65.7%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share has widened to 13 cents from 12 cents over the past 30 days. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported an earnings per share (EPS) of 11 cents.
The consensus mark for net sales is pegged at $1.58 billion, indicating a 7.2% year-over-year decline.
Factors Influencing WY’s Q4 Results
Weyerhaeuser’s fourth-quarter revenues are likely to have been pressured by seasonally softer housing and repair-and-remodel activity, which might have weighed on demand across its Wood Products segment (which accounted for approximately 71.5% of third-quarter 2025 net sales). Management indicated during the third quarter of 2025 earnings call that lumber and oriented strand board, or OSB, pricing remained near historically low levels on an inflation-adjusted basis during the quarter, while demand typically moderates further in the winter months. Reduced production levels, including a roughly 10% sequential decline in lumber output tied to weaker market conditions and the Princeton mill sale, are also expected to have constrained shipment volumes.
Our model predicts the Wood Products segment’s net sales to decline 9.7% year over year to $1.14 billion in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 96.2% from a year ago to $6.1 million.
Timberlands revenue (which accounted for approximately 31.2% of third-quarter 2025 net sales) trends were likely mixed. In the Western region, domestic log demand remained soft early in the fourth quarter as mills worked through elevated inventories, leading to moderately lower sales realizations and reduced harvest volumes. Export log volumes to Japan were also expected to decline sequentially in the fourth quarter amid inventory overhangs and housing-related headwinds in that market. These pressures were partially offset by stable log demand in the U.S. South, where delivered log programs helped maintain steady takeaway despite muted sawlog markets.
We expect the Timberlands segment’s net sales to grow 2.9% to $511.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 6.2% from a year ago to $118.2 million.
In the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (6% of third-quarter sales) segment, while earnings are expected to have declined modestly quarter over quarter due to the timing and mix of sales, underlying demand for higher-and-better-use properties remained healthy, with strong pricing premiums to timber value continuing into year-end. Growth in forest carbon and natural climate solutions is also likely to remain a constructive contributor.
Our model predicts the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment’s net sales to be $81.8 million, down 4.9% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be up 1.7% from a year ago to $77.3 million.
Overall, margin performance in the fourth quarter is expected to remain under pressure, particularly within Wood Products. Persistently weak lumber and OSB pricing, combined with lower operating rates, likely limited margin recovery despite Weyerhaeuser’s best-in-class cost position. Planned annual maintenance outages at OSB mills and lower volumes across engineered wood products likely added to fixed-cost absorption challenges.
That said, several cost offsets were expected to support the bottom line. Log and fiber costs were projected to decline modestly, particularly in lumber, while per-unit log and haul costs and forestry expenses were expected to fall seasonally in Timberlands. The company’s disciplined operating posture, OpEx culture and integrated portfolio were also expected to help cushion earnings volatility in a trough pricing environment.
What Our Model Unveils for WY
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Weyerhaeuser this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: WY has an Earnings ESP of -27.28%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Construction sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.
Construction Partners’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 92%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 20% year over year.
Owens Corning (OC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Owens Corning’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 7.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 58.7% year over year.
AAON, Inc. (AAON - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
AAON’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 3.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 50% year over year.
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Here's What Investors Must Know Ahead of Weyerhaeuser's Q4 Earnings
Key Takeaways
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, after the closing bell.
The quarter is expected to reflect a continuation of the challenging housing and wood products environment seen through the back half of 2025.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 185.7%, and net sales topped the same by 4.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the top and bottom lines decreased 2.1% and 20%, respectively.
Weyerhaeuser’s earnings beat the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and met on one occasion, with the average surprise being 65.7%.
Weyerhaeuser Company Price and EPS Surprise
Weyerhaeuser Company price-eps-surprise | Weyerhaeuser Company Quote
How Are Estimates Placed for Weyerhaeuser?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share has widened to 13 cents from 12 cents over the past 30 days. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported an earnings per share (EPS) of 11 cents.
The consensus mark for net sales is pegged at $1.58 billion, indicating a 7.2% year-over-year decline.
Factors Influencing WY’s Q4 Results
Weyerhaeuser’s fourth-quarter revenues are likely to have been pressured by seasonally softer housing and repair-and-remodel activity, which might have weighed on demand across its Wood Products segment (which accounted for approximately 71.5% of third-quarter 2025 net sales). Management indicated during the third quarter of 2025 earnings call that lumber and oriented strand board, or OSB, pricing remained near historically low levels on an inflation-adjusted basis during the quarter, while demand typically moderates further in the winter months. Reduced production levels, including a roughly 10% sequential decline in lumber output tied to weaker market conditions and the Princeton mill sale, are also expected to have constrained shipment volumes.
Our model predicts the Wood Products segment’s net sales to decline 9.7% year over year to $1.14 billion in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 96.2% from a year ago to $6.1 million.
Timberlands revenue (which accounted for approximately 31.2% of third-quarter 2025 net sales) trends were likely mixed. In the Western region, domestic log demand remained soft early in the fourth quarter as mills worked through elevated inventories, leading to moderately lower sales realizations and reduced harvest volumes. Export log volumes to Japan were also expected to decline sequentially in the fourth quarter amid inventory overhangs and housing-related headwinds in that market. These pressures were partially offset by stable log demand in the U.S. South, where delivered log programs helped maintain steady takeaway despite muted sawlog markets.
We expect the Timberlands segment’s net sales to grow 2.9% to $511.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline 6.2% from a year ago to $118.2 million.
In the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (6% of third-quarter sales) segment, while earnings are expected to have declined modestly quarter over quarter due to the timing and mix of sales, underlying demand for higher-and-better-use properties remained healthy, with strong pricing premiums to timber value continuing into year-end. Growth in forest carbon and natural climate solutions is also likely to remain a constructive contributor.
Our model predicts the Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources segment’s net sales to be $81.8 million, down 4.9% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be up 1.7% from a year ago to $77.3 million.
Overall, margin performance in the fourth quarter is expected to remain under pressure, particularly within Wood Products. Persistently weak lumber and OSB pricing, combined with lower operating rates, likely limited margin recovery despite Weyerhaeuser’s best-in-class cost position. Planned annual maintenance outages at OSB mills and lower volumes across engineered wood products likely added to fixed-cost absorption challenges.
That said, several cost offsets were expected to support the bottom line. Log and fiber costs were projected to decline modestly, particularly in lumber, while per-unit log and haul costs and forestry expenses were expected to fall seasonally in Timberlands. The company’s disciplined operating posture, OpEx culture and integrated portfolio were also expected to help cushion earnings volatility in a trough pricing environment.
What Our Model Unveils for WY
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Weyerhaeuser this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: WY has an Earnings ESP of -27.28%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Construction sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around.
Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Construction Partners’ earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 92%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 20% year over year.
Owens Corning (OC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Owens Corning’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 7.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 58.7% year over year.
AAON, Inc. (AAON - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
AAON’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 3.3%. The company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 50% year over year.