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Lumen to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What Investors Should Know
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Key Takeaways
LUMN reports Q4 results Feb. 3, with estimates calling for $3.08B revenues, down 7.4% year over year.
Lumen is witnessing AI-driven PCF demand and traction in NaaS solutions.
LUMN targets $350M cost benefits and expects 2025 EBITDA near the high end.
Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN - Free Report) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 21 cents in contrast to earnings of 9 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. The estimate has been unchanged in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for total revenues is pinned at $3.08 billion, implying a 7.4% year-over-year decline.
Lumen’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 97.7%.
Lumen has been gaining from opportunities arising from the proliferation of AI, which has been fueling demand for its Private Connectivity Fabric (“PCF”) solutions. At the end of the third quarter, LUMN had $10 billion in PCF deals. On the last earnings call, LUMN noted that it completed more than 3,200 miles of overpulls on 27 routes, which was nearly 130% of the 2025 target with one quarter still left.
Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) adoption has also been scaling, which bodes well for LUMN. Management highlighted that it has surpassed 1,500 customers for the NaaS platform, while active customers were up 32% sequentially. Fabric ports deployed were up 30% and the number of services sold surged 36% sequentially. LUMN expects its Internet on Demand Offnet solution to boost market reach by 100x.
Lumen has been building a connected ecosystem that helps buyers purchase, provision and manage their network services, while also offering cloud solutions in digital marketplaces. The connected ecosystem is likely to have aided in scaling solutions to new clients faster. Collaborations with Palantir, Commvault and QTS for the ecosystem bode well.
Performance within Mass Markets remains secondary given the pending divestiture. The company remains highly optimistic regarding the sale of Mass Markets' fiber-to-the-home business, including Quantum Fiber, across 11 states to AT&T for $5.75 billion in cash. The transaction is expected to close in early 2026, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. It will use the proceeds to pay down debt.
Cost-cutting efforts are expected to have cushioned margin performance in the to-be-reported quarter. For 2025, Lumen now expects $350 million of run-rate cost benefit compared with $250 million targeted earlier.
However, as Lumen shifts toward newer growth products like fiber and cloud-based offerings, the secular headwinds in the legacy business will continue to prove a strain on the top-line expansion, at least in the near term.
LUMN expects normalization of public sector “Harvest” revenues, which negatively impacted the third quarter, to have affected fourth quarter performance as well. Ongoing declines in legacy wholesale, voice and managed services revenues, as well as a year-over-year headwind from a one-time benefit in the fourth quarter of 2024, will make comparisons tougher for “Grow” segment revenues.
Higher costs associated with PCF deals, macro volatility and stiff competition in the AI space remain additional concerns.
2025 Outlook
For 2025, adjusted EBITDA is predicted to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, with Lumen expecting to report numbers near the high end of the range. Adjusted EBITDA includes the impact from public sector harvest normalization, higher costs for PCF sales and legacy revenue declines. Lumen expects EBITDA to rebound in 2026.
Capital expenditures are estimated to be between $4.1 billion and $4.3 billion, with Lumen expecting to report the numbers near the low end of the range. This is mainly due to project timings.
Free cash flow is now anticipated to be between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion. The guidance lift primarily stems from a $400 million tax refund, lower capex, improved adjusted EBITDA performance and reduced interest expense.
Recent Key Developments
On Dec. 1, 2025, Lumen launched Lumen Defender Managed Rules for AWS Network Firewall in the AWS Marketplace, giving customers direct access to the same Black Lotus Labs threat intelligence it uses internally. This lets enterprises detect and block threats earlier, without adding extra tools or complexity.
On Nov. 19, 2025, Lumen introduced Lumen Defender Advanced Managed Detection and Response integrated with Microsoft Sentinel, to strengthen enterprise cybersecurity as AI and cloud adoption accelerate. The fully managed, cloud-native solution combines Microsoft’s security platform with Lumen’s global network intelligence, including insights from Black Lotus Labs, to help organizations respond more effectively to increasingly fast and sophisticated cyber threats.
What Our Model Predicts for LUMN’s Q4
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lumen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
LUMN has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are three stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right elements to post an earnings beat in this reporting cycle.
CRUS is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Feb. 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRUS’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.42 per share and $536.3 million, respectively. Shares of CRUS have gained 29.6% in the past year.
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. NXPI is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NXPI’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.30 per share and $3.3 billion, respectively. Shares of NXPI have risen 11.9% in the past year.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. AMD is scheduled to report quarterly figures on Feb. 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMD’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.33 per share and $9.67 billion, respectively. Shares of AMD have skyrocketed 116.7% in the past year.
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Lumen to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What Investors Should Know
Key Takeaways
Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN - Free Report) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 21 cents in contrast to earnings of 9 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. The estimate has been unchanged in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for total revenues is pinned at $3.08 billion, implying a 7.4% year-over-year decline.
Lumen’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 97.7%.
Its shares have gained 80.7% in the past year compared with a 19.5% rise for the Diversified Communication Services industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors at Play Ahead of LUMN’s Q4 Results
Lumen has been gaining from opportunities arising from the proliferation of AI, which has been fueling demand for its Private Connectivity Fabric (“PCF”) solutions. At the end of the third quarter, LUMN had $10 billion in PCF deals. On the last earnings call, LUMN noted that it completed more than 3,200 miles of overpulls on 27 routes, which was nearly 130% of the 2025 target with one quarter still left.
Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) adoption has also been scaling, which bodes well for LUMN. Management highlighted that it has surpassed 1,500 customers for the NaaS platform, while active customers were up 32% sequentially. Fabric ports deployed were up 30% and the number of services sold surged 36% sequentially. LUMN expects its Internet on Demand Offnet solution to boost market reach by 100x.
Lumen has been building a connected ecosystem that helps buyers purchase, provision and manage their network services, while also offering cloud solutions in digital marketplaces. The connected ecosystem is likely to have aided in scaling solutions to new clients faster. Collaborations with Palantir, Commvault and QTS for the ecosystem bode well.
Performance within Mass Markets remains secondary given the pending divestiture. The company remains highly optimistic regarding the sale of Mass Markets' fiber-to-the-home business, including Quantum Fiber, across 11 states to AT&T for $5.75 billion in cash. The transaction is expected to close in early 2026, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. It will use the proceeds to pay down debt.
Lumen Technologies, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Lumen Technologies, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Lumen Technologies, Inc. Quote
Cost-cutting efforts are expected to have cushioned margin performance in the to-be-reported quarter. For 2025, Lumen now expects $350 million of run-rate cost benefit compared with $250 million targeted earlier.
However, as Lumen shifts toward newer growth products like fiber and cloud-based offerings, the secular headwinds in the legacy business will continue to prove a strain on the top-line expansion, at least in the near term.
LUMN expects normalization of public sector “Harvest” revenues, which negatively impacted the third quarter, to have affected fourth quarter performance as well. Ongoing declines in legacy wholesale, voice and managed services revenues, as well as a year-over-year headwind from a one-time benefit in the fourth quarter of 2024, will make comparisons tougher for “Grow” segment revenues.
Higher costs associated with PCF deals, macro volatility and stiff competition in the AI space remain additional concerns.
2025 Outlook
For 2025, adjusted EBITDA is predicted to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, with Lumen expecting to report numbers near the high end of the range. Adjusted EBITDA includes the impact from public sector harvest normalization, higher costs for PCF sales and legacy revenue declines. Lumen expects EBITDA to rebound in 2026.
Capital expenditures are estimated to be between $4.1 billion and $4.3 billion, with Lumen expecting to report the numbers near the low end of the range. This is mainly due to project timings.
Free cash flow is now anticipated to be between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion. The guidance lift primarily stems from a $400 million tax refund, lower capex, improved adjusted EBITDA performance and reduced interest expense.
Recent Key Developments
On Dec. 1, 2025, Lumen launched Lumen Defender Managed Rules for AWS Network Firewall in the AWS Marketplace, giving customers direct access to the same Black Lotus Labs threat intelligence it uses internally. This lets enterprises detect and block threats earlier, without adding extra tools or complexity.
On Nov. 19, 2025, Lumen introduced Lumen Defender Advanced Managed Detection and Response integrated with Microsoft Sentinel, to strengthen enterprise cybersecurity as AI and cloud adoption accelerate. The fully managed, cloud-native solution combines Microsoft’s security platform with Lumen’s global network intelligence, including insights from Black Lotus Labs, to help organizations respond more effectively to increasingly fast and sophisticated cyber threats.
What Our Model Predicts for LUMN’s Q4
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lumen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
LUMN has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are three stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right elements to post an earnings beat in this reporting cycle.
Cirrus Logic, Inc (CRUS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.90% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CRUS is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Feb. 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRUS’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.42 per share and $536.3 million, respectively. Shares of CRUS have gained 29.6% in the past year.
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. NXPI is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NXPI’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.30 per share and $3.3 billion, respectively. Shares of NXPI have risen 11.9% in the past year.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. AMD is scheduled to report quarterly figures on Feb. 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMD’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.33 per share and $9.67 billion, respectively. Shares of AMD have skyrocketed 116.7% in the past year.