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Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BMY Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
BMY is set to report Q4 2025 results on Feb. 5, with consensus calling for $12.25B in sales and $1.15 EPS.
BMY's growth portfolio, led by Opdivo, Reblozyl and Breyanzi, likely supported quarterly revenue momentum.
BMY continues to face pressure from declining legacy drugs due to generic competition.
Biotech giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $12.25 billion and $1.15 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased to $6.09 from $6.52 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2026 has increased to $6.08 from $6.01.
BMY's Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BMY’s Earnings Surprise History
BMY has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 20.05%. In the previously reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 10.14%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for BMY
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for BMY is 0.0%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing BMY’s Q4 Results
BMY’s top line has likely gained from an increase in growth portfolio sales. The growth portfolio primarily comprises sales from drugs like Opdivo, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Abecma, Zeposia, Breyanzi, Camzyos, Sotyku, Krazati and others.
Consistent label expansions in newer metastatic and adjuvant indications (MSI-high colorectal cancer and first-line non-small cell lung cancer) have likely maintained momentum for immuno-oncology drug Opdivo in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdivo sales are pegged at $2.6 billion and $2.48 billion, respectively.
The approval of Opdivo Qvantig (nivolumab and hyaluronidase-nvhy) injection for subcutaneous use has boosted BMY’s immuno-oncology portfolio. Growth is being fueled by continued use across all indicated tumor types as well as the permanent J-Code received earlier in 2025.
Bristol Myers now expects global Opdivo sales, together with Qvantig, to increase in the high single-digit to low double-digit range in 2025 (previous guidance: mid to high single-digit range in 2025), driven by strong performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Orencia sales are pegged at $989 million and $1 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $727 million and $692 million, respectively.
Reblozyl posted solid growth in both the U.S. and international markets in the last reported quarter. Sales in the United States are being driven by strong demand in first-line ring sideroblasts (RS) positive and RS-negative myelodysplastic syndromes-associated anemia. International sales growth, driven by strong launches in new markets, has also likely boosted sales of this drug in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Reblozyl sales are pegged at $636 million and $641 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdualag sales are pegged at $315 million and $314.3 million, respectively.
Breyanzi sales have likely benefited from strong demand growth across all its approved indications. Domestic sales reflect growth in large B-cell lymphoma and label expansion in new indications. International sales are being driven by continued strong demand across existing markets along with incremental demand from newly launched markets.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Breyanzi sales are pegged at $380 million and $376 million, respectively.
Camzyos sales too have likely seen strong growth, driven by increased demand in the United States on the back of new patient starts and higher demand in newly launched markets outside the country.
The newly launched schizophrenia drug Cobenfy, too, is off to a solid start, and sales have likely grown sequentially in the fourth quarter.
Increase in demand for psoriasis drug Sotyktu has likely been partially offset by higher rebates.
However, as in the previous quarters, total quarterly revenues in the fourth quarter have likely been adversely impacted by a decline in sales from the legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, among others.
Generic competition for Sprycel, Revlimid, Abraxane and Pomalyst has likely pulled down revenues from this portfolio.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pomalyst’s fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $627 million and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $596.3 million.
Nonetheless, Eliquis sales are being driven by continued strong demand and the trend has likely prevailed in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Eliquis’ fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $3.7 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.
Bristol-Myers collaborated with Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) for Eliquis in 2007. Profits and losses are shared equally worldwide, except in certain countries where Pfizer commercializes Eliquis and pays BMY a sales-based fee.
Operating expenses have likely declined in the fourth quarter primarily due to the company’s ongoing strategic productivity initiative.
BMY’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of BMY have lost 8.1% in the past year against the industry’s growth of 15.7%. The stock has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this timeframe.
BMY Underperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500 Index
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, BMY’s shares currently trade at 9.09x forward earnings, lower than its mean of 8.41x and 18.42x for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for BMY
Legacy products accounted for 47% of total sales in the first nine months of 2025, and the continued erosion of these revenues has weighed on overall top-line growth.
While drugs like Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos and Opdualag have enabled BMY to stabilize its revenue base, these drugs will take some time to fully offset the significant decline in legacy drug sales.
Nonetheless, approvals of additional new drugs and label expansions of key drugs should help BMY’s cause.
Meanwhile, BMY’s strategic collaborations and acquisitions aimed at bolstering its pipeline are noteworthy, though they have been funded by a significant increase in debt, which remains a concern.
The recent acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics added OTX-201, Orbital’s lead preclinical RNA immunotherapy candidate currently in IND-enabling studies, to BMY’s pipeline. OTX-201 is a next-generation CAR T-cell therapy designed to reprogram cells in vivo, with the potential for a best-in-class profile in autoimmune diseases. The deal also adds Orbital’s proprietary RNA platform to BMY’s broader pipeline.
In 2025, BMY collaborated with BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) for the global co-development and co-commercialization of BioNTech’s investigational bispecific antibody pumitamig (BNT327) across numerous solid tumor types.
BMY and BioNTech announced positive first interim results from a global randomized phase II study evaluating pumitamig in combination with chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, regardless of PD-L1 expression.
The interim analysis demonstrated encouraging antitumor activity and a manageable safety profile for pumitamig plus chemotherapy in both first- and second-line treatment settings.
Bispecific antibodies that simultaneously target PD-1/PD-L1 and VEGF have emerged as a particularly attractive area in oncology. Pumitamig, a next-generation bispecific antibody candidate, is designed to target PD-L1 and VEGF-A, positioning it as a potentially differentiated therapy in cancer treatment.
Stay Invested in BMY Stock
BMY is one of the largest biotechs and such large biotech companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector.
The recent rally has helped the stock reclaim lost ground, restoring some confidence among cautious investors.
Regardless of how the fourth-quarter results turn out, we recommend prospective investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach before turning constructive on the stock. For existing shareholders, however, remaining invested appears prudent, supported by the company’s attractive dividend yield of 4.58%, which provides a compelling incentive to hold the shares.
Image: Shutterstock
Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell BMY Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Biotech giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $12.25 billion and $1.15 per share, respectively.
Earnings estimate for 2025 has decreased to $6.09 from $6.52 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2026 has increased to $6.08 from $6.01.
BMY's Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BMY’s Earnings Surprise History
BMY has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 20.05%. In the previously reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 10.14%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts for BMY
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for BMY is 0.0%. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Influencing BMY’s Q4 Results
BMY’s top line has likely gained from an increase in growth portfolio sales. The growth portfolio primarily comprises sales from drugs like Opdivo, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Abecma, Zeposia, Breyanzi, Camzyos, Sotyku, Krazati and others.
Consistent label expansions in newer metastatic and adjuvant indications (MSI-high colorectal cancer and first-line non-small cell lung cancer) have likely maintained momentum for immuno-oncology drug Opdivo in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdivo sales are pegged at $2.6 billion and $2.48 billion, respectively.
The approval of Opdivo Qvantig (nivolumab and hyaluronidase-nvhy) injection for subcutaneous use has boosted BMY’s immuno-oncology portfolio. Growth is being fueled by continued use across all indicated tumor types as well as the permanent J-Code received earlier in 2025.
Bristol Myers now expects global Opdivo sales, together with Qvantig, to increase in the high single-digit to low double-digit range in 2025 (previous guidance: mid to high single-digit range in 2025), driven by strong performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Orencia sales are pegged at $989 million and $1 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $727 million and $692 million, respectively.
Reblozyl posted solid growth in both the U.S. and international markets in the last reported quarter. Sales in the United States are being driven by strong demand in first-line ring sideroblasts (RS) positive and RS-negative myelodysplastic syndromes-associated anemia. International sales growth, driven by strong launches in new markets, has also likely boosted sales of this drug in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Reblozyl sales are pegged at $636 million and $641 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Opdualag sales are pegged at $315 million and $314.3 million, respectively.
Breyanzi sales have likely benefited from strong demand growth across all its approved indications. Domestic sales reflect growth in large B-cell lymphoma and label expansion in new indications. International sales are being driven by continued strong demand across existing markets along with incremental demand from newly launched markets.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Breyanzi sales are pegged at $380 million and $376 million, respectively.
Camzyos sales too have likely seen strong growth, driven by increased demand in the United States on the back of new patient starts and higher demand in newly launched markets outside the country.
The newly launched schizophrenia drug Cobenfy, too, is off to a solid start, and sales have likely grown sequentially in the fourth quarter.
Increase in demand for psoriasis drug Sotyktu has likely been partially offset by higher rebates.
However, as in the previous quarters, total quarterly revenues in the fourth quarter have likely been adversely impacted by a decline in sales from the legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, among others.
Generic competition for Sprycel, Revlimid, Abraxane and Pomalyst has likely pulled down revenues from this portfolio.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pomalyst’s fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $627 million and our model estimate for the same is pinned at $596.3 million.
Nonetheless, Eliquis sales are being driven by continued strong demand and the trend has likely prevailed in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Eliquis’ fourth-quarter sales are pegged at $3.7 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.
Bristol-Myers collaborated with Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) for Eliquis in 2007. Profits and losses are shared equally worldwide, except in certain countries where Pfizer commercializes Eliquis and pays BMY a sales-based fee.
Operating expenses have likely declined in the fourth quarter primarily due to the company’s ongoing strategic productivity initiative.
BMY’s Price Performance and Valuation
Shares of BMY have lost 8.1% in the past year against the industry’s growth of 15.7%. The stock has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in this timeframe.
BMY Underperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500 Index
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Going by the price/earnings ratio, BMY’s shares currently trade at 9.09x forward earnings, lower than its mean of 8.41x and 18.42x for the large-cap pharma industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for BMY
Legacy products accounted for 47% of total sales in the first nine months of 2025, and the continued erosion of these revenues has weighed on overall top-line growth.
While drugs like Reblozyl, Breyanzi, Camzyos and Opdualag have enabled BMY to stabilize its revenue base, these drugs will take some time to fully offset the significant decline in legacy drug sales.
Nonetheless, approvals of additional new drugs and label expansions of key drugs should help BMY’s cause.
Meanwhile, BMY’s strategic collaborations and acquisitions aimed at bolstering its pipeline are noteworthy, though they have been funded by a significant increase in debt, which remains a concern.
The recent acquisition of Orbital Therapeutics added OTX-201, Orbital’s lead preclinical RNA immunotherapy candidate currently in IND-enabling studies, to BMY’s pipeline. OTX-201 is a next-generation CAR T-cell therapy designed to reprogram cells in vivo, with the potential for a best-in-class profile in autoimmune diseases. The deal also adds Orbital’s proprietary RNA platform to BMY’s broader pipeline.
In 2025, BMY collaborated with BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) for the global co-development and co-commercialization of BioNTech’s investigational bispecific antibody pumitamig (BNT327) across numerous solid tumor types.
BMY and BioNTech announced positive first interim results from a global randomized phase II study evaluating pumitamig in combination with chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, regardless of PD-L1 expression.
The interim analysis demonstrated encouraging antitumor activity and a manageable safety profile for pumitamig plus chemotherapy in both first- and second-line treatment settings.
Bispecific antibodies that simultaneously target PD-1/PD-L1 and VEGF have emerged as a particularly attractive area in oncology. Pumitamig, a next-generation bispecific antibody candidate, is designed to target PD-L1 and VEGF-A, positioning it as a potentially differentiated therapy in cancer treatment.
Stay Invested in BMY Stock
BMY is one of the largest biotechs and such large biotech companies are generally considered safe havens for investors interested in this sector.
The recent rally has helped the stock reclaim lost ground, restoring some confidence among cautious investors.
Regardless of how the fourth-quarter results turn out, we recommend prospective investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach before turning constructive on the stock. For existing shareholders, however, remaining invested appears prudent, supported by the company’s attractive dividend yield of 4.58%, which provides a compelling incentive to hold the shares.
BMY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.