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Will Rising Costs Hit Molina's Q4 Earnings? Key Insights Here
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Key Takeaways
Molina Healthcare will report Q4 2025 results on Feb. 5, with EPS seen at 43 cents on $10.8B in revenues.
MOH expects Medicare membership gains, while Medicaid membership is projected to fall 6.4% year over year.
MOH faces higher MCRs, rising costs and lower investment income, making earnings beat uncertain.
A Healthcare plan provider, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) , is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at 43 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $10.8 billion.
The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 91.5%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 2.9%.
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For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.89 billion, implying a rise of 10.4% year over year. However, the consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $13.99, indicating a decline of 38.23% on a year-over-year basis.
Molina Healthcare beat the consensus estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, delivering an average negative surprise of 15.8%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
MOH has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates growth of 2.4% year over year in the fourth quarter, while our model estimate suggests a 2.1% increase. The consensus estimate for the medicare premiums is pinned at $1.4 billion, up 4.9% year over year.
While our model indicates a 6.4% year-over-year decrease in medicaid membership. MOH’s medicare membership is projected to witness 3.3% growth. Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the marketplace membership suggests a 64.7% increase from the year-ago period’s level.
However, the consensus mark for the medical care ratio (MCR) in marketplace is pegged at 94.8% in the to-be-reported quarter, up from 83.3% a year ago. The consensus mark for total MCR is pegged at almost 93%, up from 90.2% a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Medicaid MCR is pegged at 92.47%, up from 90.2% a year ago.
Along with this, rising costs and lower investment income make earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income indicates a 9.8% decline year over year. Our model estimate for fourth-quarter total operating expenses suggests a 6.1% increase from the year-ago period, due to higher medical care costs and G&A expenses.
How Are Other HMOs Placed This Quarter?
Major peers UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) have already reported fourth-quarter results and The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) is scheduled to report this week.
UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 on higher commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, the bottom line declined 69% year over year due to elevated medical costs. UnitedHealth’s revenues rose 12% year over year to $113.2 billion.
Elevance Health reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3% on the back of strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance Health’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects an 18.5% year-over-year increase in Cigna Group’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for revenues implies 6.5% growth from the prior-year period’s level. The bottom-line estimate has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. CI beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once.
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Will Rising Costs Hit Molina's Q4 Earnings? Key Insights Here
Key Takeaways
A Healthcare plan provider, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) , is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at 43 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $10.8 billion.
The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 91.5%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 2.9%.
For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.89 billion, implying a rise of 10.4% year over year. However, the consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $13.99, indicating a decline of 38.23% on a year-over-year basis.
Molina Healthcare beat the consensus estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, delivering an average negative surprise of 15.8%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and Consensus
Molina Healthcare, Inc price-consensus-chart | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote
Q4 Earnings Whispers for MOH
Our proven model does not conclusively predict earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
MOH has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
What’s Shaping MOH’s Q4 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates growth of 2.4% year over year in the fourth quarter, while our model estimate suggests a 2.1% increase. The consensus estimate for the medicare premiums is pinned at $1.4 billion, up 4.9% year over year.
While our model indicates a 6.4% year-over-year decrease in medicaid membership. MOH’s medicare membership is projected to witness 3.3% growth. Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the marketplace membership suggests a 64.7% increase from the year-ago period’s level.
However, the consensus mark for the medical care ratio (MCR) in marketplace is pegged at 94.8% in the to-be-reported quarter, up from 83.3% a year ago. The consensus mark for total MCR is pegged at almost 93%, up from 90.2% a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for Medicaid MCR is pegged at 92.47%, up from 90.2% a year ago.
Along with this, rising costs and lower investment income make earnings beat uncertain. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income indicates a 9.8% decline year over year. Our model estimate for fourth-quarter total operating expenses suggests a 6.1% increase from the year-ago period, due to higher medical care costs and G&A expenses.
How Are Other HMOs Placed This Quarter?
Major peers UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) have already reported fourth-quarter results and The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) is scheduled to report this week.
UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 on higher commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, the bottom line declined 69% year over year due to elevated medical costs. UnitedHealth’s revenues rose 12% year over year to $113.2 billion.
Elevance Health reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3% on the back of strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance Health’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects an 18.5% year-over-year increase in Cigna Group’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for revenues implies 6.5% growth from the prior-year period’s level. The bottom-line estimate has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. CI beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once.