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YUM’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 2.4%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of YUM
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.78, indicating a rise of 10.6% from $1.61 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $2.47 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 4.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape YUM’s Quarterly Results
Yum! Brands’ fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued global unit expansion, resilient demand across its core brands and sustained momentum in digital sales. Ongoing development activity, particularly across KFC’s international markets, alongside Taco Bell’s value-led menu architecture and strong digital engagement, is likely to have supported system sales growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The company’s emphasis on technology-enabled operations and data-driven marketing is expected to have aided overall performance during the fourth quarter.
Increased focus on menu innovation, limited-time offerings and value platforms is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Digital ordering, loyalty engagement and late-night positioning are expected to have supported traffic trends, while steady pricing execution may have aided average check growth. Strong performance of KFC’s international business, supported by brand relevance, local menu adaptations and continued penetration in emerging markets, is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Our model predicts fourth-quarter KFC revenues to rise 7.7% year over year to $1.04 billion.
Growth in franchise-driven revenues and contributions from the company’s asset-light model are likely to have aided YUM’s top line and margin profile in the fourth quarter. Investments in proprietary digital platforms, including AI-enabled operational and productivity tools across labor, inventory and restaurant execution, are expected to have supported franchise-level efficiency and operating leverage.
However, elevated costs and continued challenges at Pizza Hut are likely to have weighed on consolidated results. Management has highlighted uneven performance across the Pizza Hut system, including elevated unit closures in certain international markets and franchisee-specific disruptions. These factors, along with ongoing investments in marketing, technology and development, are expected to have limited margin expansion in the quarter. Our model predicts fourth-quarter company restaurant expenses to rise 1.1% year over year to $735 million.
What Our Model Says About YUM Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Yum! Brands this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for YUM: Yum! Brands currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are a few other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to register an 7.9% year-over-year surge. Brinker's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 8.2%.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Darden’s earnings are expected to register a 5.4% year-over-year increase. Darden’s earnings beat estimates in one out of the trailing four quarters, and missed thrice, with an average miss of 0.4%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to decline 5.8% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.7%.
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YUM to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, 2026.
YUM’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 2.4%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of YUM
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.78, indicating a rise of 10.6% from $1.61 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $2.47 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 4.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Yum! Brands, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Yum! Brands, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Yum! Brands, Inc. Quote
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape YUM’s Quarterly Results
Yum! Brands’ fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued global unit expansion, resilient demand across its core brands and sustained momentum in digital sales. Ongoing development activity, particularly across KFC’s international markets, alongside Taco Bell’s value-led menu architecture and strong digital engagement, is likely to have supported system sales growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The company’s emphasis on technology-enabled operations and data-driven marketing is expected to have aided overall performance during the fourth quarter.
Increased focus on menu innovation, limited-time offerings and value platforms is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Digital ordering, loyalty engagement and late-night positioning are expected to have supported traffic trends, while steady pricing execution may have aided average check growth. Strong performance of KFC’s international business, supported by brand relevance, local menu adaptations and continued penetration in emerging markets, is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Our model predicts fourth-quarter KFC revenues to rise 7.7% year over year to $1.04 billion.
Growth in franchise-driven revenues and contributions from the company’s asset-light model are likely to have aided YUM’s top line and margin profile in the fourth quarter. Investments in proprietary digital platforms, including AI-enabled operational and productivity tools across labor, inventory and restaurant execution, are expected to have supported franchise-level efficiency and operating leverage.
However, elevated costs and continued challenges at Pizza Hut are likely to have weighed on consolidated results. Management has highlighted uneven performance across the Pizza Hut system, including elevated unit closures in certain international markets and franchisee-specific disruptions. These factors, along with ongoing investments in marketing, technology and development, are expected to have limited margin expansion in the quarter. Our model predicts fourth-quarter company restaurant expenses to rise 1.1% year over year to $735 million.
What Our Model Says About YUM Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Yum! Brands this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for YUM: Yum! Brands currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.67%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Yum! Brands’ Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to register an 7.9% year-over-year surge. Brinker's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 8.2%.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Darden’s earnings are expected to register a 5.4% year-over-year increase. Darden’s earnings beat estimates in one out of the trailing four quarters, and missed thrice, with an average miss of 0.4%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to decline 5.8% year over year. CAKE’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 12.7%.