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In the third quarter, PGY delivered a robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 36% year over year to a record $350.2 million. This was driven by a rise in revenues from fees and interest income. We believe the company to have recorded a similar performance this time around.
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the fourth quarter as well. Management expects fourth-quarter 2025 total revenues and other income between $333 million and $358 million. For the full year, the metric is expected between $1.3 billion and $1.325 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $348.4 million, which implies a 24.7% year-over-year improvement. The consensus estimate for full-year revenues of $1.32 billion implies year-over-year growth of 28.4%.
In the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 75 cents. The estimate indicates significant growth from the prior-year quarter. For 2025, the consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.10, which indicates significant growth from the previous year.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pagaya does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 20.7%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Key Q4 Estimates for Pagaya
Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenues from fees are expected to have improved in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $341 million, indicating a 23.6% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.86 billion implies growth of 9.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects fourth-quarter 2025 network volume between $2.65 billion and $2.90 billion.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA between $99 million and $109 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $25 million and $35 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
Per our proven model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Pagaya will be able to beat earnings estimates this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Pagaya shares lost 30.1% in the fourth quarter compared with the industry’s decline of 13.6%. The stock underperformed its peers, LendingClub (LC - Free Report) and LendingTree (TREE - Free Report) .
4Q25 PGY Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LendingClub’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were aided by an increase in net interest income and non-interest income. However, higher expenses were the undermining factor.
LendingTree will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Mar. 2, after market close.
In terms of valuation, PGY shares are trading at a slight discount relative to the industry. The stock is, at present, trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 2.96X. This is marginally below the industry’s 3.00X.
Price-to-Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the PGY stock is trading at a premium compared with LendingClub, it is trading at a discount compared with LendingTree. At present, LendingTree has a P/B of 5.55X, while LendingClub’s P/B is 1.33X.
How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q4 Earnings?
Given Pagaya’s resilient business model and capital-efficient funding strategy, it stands out in the fintech space. Its AI-driven platform, diversified revenue streams and reliance on forward flow agreements shield it from market volatility and credit risks.
With accelerating earnings estimates, PGY is well-positioned for continued growth. Moreover, the stock trades at a discount relative to the industry at large, making its valuation attractive.
However, the company has been witnessing a persistent increase in expenses over the past few years. Over the last three years (2021-2024), total costs and operating expenses saw a compound annual growth rate of 26.2%. The uptrend continued in the first nine months of 2025, mainly because of elevated production costs.
Thus, investors should not rush to buy the stock now. They should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and policy matters that are likely to influence the company’s future performance.
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Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Pagaya Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter and 2025 earnings on Feb. 9, before market open.
In the third quarter, PGY delivered a robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 36% year over year to a record $350.2 million. This was driven by a rise in revenues from fees and interest income. We believe the company to have recorded a similar performance this time around.
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the fourth quarter as well. Management expects fourth-quarter 2025 total revenues and other income between $333 million and $358 million. For the full year, the metric is expected between $1.3 billion and $1.325 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $348.4 million, which implies a 24.7% year-over-year improvement. The consensus estimate for full-year revenues of $1.32 billion implies year-over-year growth of 28.4%.
In the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 75 cents. The estimate indicates significant growth from the prior-year quarter. For 2025, the consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.10, which indicates significant growth from the previous year.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Pagaya does not have an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 20.7%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Key Q4 Estimates for Pagaya
Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenues from fees are expected to have improved in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $341 million, indicating a 23.6% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.86 billion implies growth of 9.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects fourth-quarter 2025 network volume between $2.65 billion and $2.90 billion.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA between $99 million and $109 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $25 million and $35 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
Per our proven model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Pagaya will be able to beat earnings estimates this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PGY carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
PGY’s Price Performance & Valuation
Pagaya shares lost 30.1% in the fourth quarter compared with the industry’s decline of 13.6%. The stock underperformed its peers, LendingClub (LC - Free Report) and LendingTree (TREE - Free Report) .
4Q25 PGY Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LendingClub’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were aided by an increase in net interest income and non-interest income. However, higher expenses were the undermining factor.
LendingTree will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Mar. 2, after market close.
In terms of valuation, PGY shares are trading at a slight discount relative to the industry. The stock is, at present, trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 2.96X. This is marginally below the industry’s 3.00X.
Price-to-Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While the PGY stock is trading at a premium compared with LendingClub, it is trading at a discount compared with LendingTree. At present, LendingTree has a P/B of 5.55X, while LendingClub’s P/B is 1.33X.
How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q4 Earnings?
Given Pagaya’s resilient business model and capital-efficient funding strategy, it stands out in the fintech space. Its AI-driven platform, diversified revenue streams and reliance on forward flow agreements shield it from market volatility and credit risks.
With accelerating earnings estimates, PGY is well-positioned for continued growth. Moreover, the stock trades at a discount relative to the industry at large, making its valuation attractive.
However, the company has been witnessing a persistent increase in expenses over the past few years. Over the last three years (2021-2024), total costs and operating expenses saw a compound annual growth rate of 26.2%. The uptrend continued in the first nine months of 2025, mainly because of elevated production costs.
Thus, investors should not rush to buy the stock now. They should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and policy matters that are likely to influence the company’s future performance.