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USA Rare Earth Q4 Earnings on the Deck: How to Approach the Stock Now?
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Key Takeaways
USAR is likely to report Q4 results on Feb. 5, with consensus now calling for a 12-cent per-share loss.
USAR advanced its Stillwater facility, preparing Line 1a for early 2026 commissioning.
USAR boosted cash via PIPE financing and acquired Less Common Metals.
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) is expected to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 12 cents per share. The estimate has moved down from a loss of seven cents to the current loss of 12 cents over the past 60 days. USA Rare Earth reported a loss of 25 cents per share in the previous quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
USAR’s Earnings Surprise History
USAR’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing two quarters and surpassed the same in the other quarter. The company has a trailing two-quarter negative earnings surprise of 139.1%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for USAR
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for USAR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: USAR has an Earnings ESP of -100.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 24 cents per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 12 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: USAR presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped USAR’s Q4 Performance
USA Rare Earth is working to move its Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma closer to commercial production. The plant is designed to produce Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets, which are essential for defense, aviation, automotive and other high-growth applications. The Stillwater facility is expected to become one of the first large-scale magnet plants in the United States, supporting the country’s efforts to build a domestic rare earth supply chain.
USA Rare Earth is installing key equipment, assembling Line 1a and completing final preparations at the Stillwater facility for commissioning in early 2026. It is worth noting that the company began hiring and training engineers and technicians to operate the facility. These efforts are likely to improve USAR’s ability to reach commercial-scale production and help it secure long-term customer contracts.
USA Rare Earth also bolstered its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, bringing its total cash position to more than $400 million as of November 2025. It is worth noting that the company completed the $1.5 billion PIPE financing in January 2026. This funding is being used to make upgrades at the Stillwater plant, expand magnet finishing capabilities and complete Line 1b to increase total NdFeB magnet-producing capacity to roughly 1,200 metric tons.
USAR completed the acquisition of Less Common Metals in November 2025, which will supply critical metal and alloy feedstock for the Stillwater plant. In December 2025, LCM partnered with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies Corp. (Arnold) to provide a stable and premium-quality source of rare-earth materials. This addition and continued progress across its development initiatives are expected to have been a tailwind to its performance during the fourth quarter.
However, since its inception, USA Rare Earth has remained in the exploration and research stages, incurring losses while yet to generate any revenues. Amid its project development phase, the company has been grappling with rising operational expenses, adversely impacting its margins and profitability. USAR’s selling, general and administrative expenses increased over the past few quarters due to a rise in legal & consulting costs, higher headcount & recruiting fees and other costs. All these factors are anticipated to have led to a loss in the fourth quarter.
USAR’s Price Performance
Shares of the company have jumped 58.1% in the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 composite and Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry’s growth of 12.5% and 30.1%, respectively. However, USAR has lagged other key industry players like NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) and Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO - Free Report) , which have surged 85.6% and 146.8%, respectively, over the said time frame.
Six-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation
From a valuation standpoint, USA Rare Earth is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of a negative 69.54X against the industry average of 15.64X. In comparison, NioCorp Developments and Aura Minerals are trading at a negative 12.45X and 6.42X, respectively.
Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
USA Rare Earth is progressing toward commercial production at its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet facility, with key equipment being installed, Line 1a assembled and commissioning targeted for early 2026. The company significantly strengthened its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, lifting cash above $400 million by November 2025 and completing a $1.5 billion PIPE in January 2026 to upgrade the plant and expand NdFeB magnet capacity to about 1,200 metric tons. Also, the acquisition of Less Common Metals and its partnership with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies secure critical feedstock supply, supporting U.S. domestic rare-earth production and providing a tailwind to fourth-quarter performance.
Should You Buy USAR Now?
The company is making significant investments to boost its production capacity. Investors holding USAR shares should continue to do so to benefit from the solid long-term fundamentals. However, given its high operating costs and the expected loss in the quarter, prospective investors can wait for a better entry point.
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USA Rare Earth Q4 Earnings on the Deck: How to Approach the Stock Now?
Key Takeaways
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) is expected to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of 12 cents per share. The estimate has moved down from a loss of seven cents to the current loss of 12 cents over the past 60 days. USA Rare Earth reported a loss of 25 cents per share in the previous quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
USAR’s Earnings Surprise History
USAR’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing two quarters and surpassed the same in the other quarter. The company has a trailing two-quarter negative earnings surprise of 139.1%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers for USAR
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for USAR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: USAR has an Earnings ESP of -100.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of 24 cents per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 12 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: USAR presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
USA Rare Earth Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
USA Rare Earth Inc. price-eps-surprise | USA Rare Earth Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Have Shaped USAR’s Q4 Performance
USA Rare Earth is working to move its Stillwater magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma closer to commercial production. The plant is designed to produce Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets, which are essential for defense, aviation, automotive and other high-growth applications. The Stillwater facility is expected to become one of the first large-scale magnet plants in the United States, supporting the country’s efforts to build a domestic rare earth supply chain.
USA Rare Earth is installing key equipment, assembling Line 1a and completing final preparations at the Stillwater facility for commissioning in early 2026. It is worth noting that the company began hiring and training engineers and technicians to operate the facility. These efforts are likely to improve USAR’s ability to reach commercial-scale production and help it secure long-term customer contracts.
USA Rare Earth also bolstered its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, bringing its total cash position to more than $400 million as of November 2025. It is worth noting that the company completed the $1.5 billion PIPE financing in January 2026. This funding is being used to make upgrades at the Stillwater plant, expand magnet finishing capabilities and complete Line 1b to increase total NdFeB magnet-producing capacity to roughly 1,200 metric tons.
USAR completed the acquisition of Less Common Metals in November 2025, which will supply critical metal and alloy feedstock for the Stillwater plant. In December 2025, LCM partnered with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies Corp. (Arnold) to provide a stable and premium-quality source of rare-earth materials. This addition and continued progress across its development initiatives are expected to have been a tailwind to its performance during the fourth quarter.
However, since its inception, USA Rare Earth has remained in the exploration and research stages, incurring losses while yet to generate any revenues. Amid its project development phase, the company has been grappling with rising operational expenses, adversely impacting its margins and profitability. USAR’s selling, general and administrative expenses increased over the past few quarters due to a rise in legal & consulting costs, higher headcount & recruiting fees and other costs. All these factors are anticipated to have led to a loss in the fourth quarter.
USAR’s Price Performance
Shares of the company have jumped 58.1% in the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 composite and Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry’s growth of 12.5% and 30.1%, respectively. However, USAR has lagged other key industry players like NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) and Aura Minerals Inc. (AUGO - Free Report) , which have surged 85.6% and 146.8%, respectively, over the said time frame.
Six-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation
From a valuation standpoint, USA Rare Earth is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of a negative 69.54X against the industry average of 15.64X. In comparison, NioCorp Developments and Aura Minerals are trading at a negative 12.45X and 6.42X, respectively.
Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis
USA Rare Earth is progressing toward commercial production at its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet facility, with key equipment being installed, Line 1a assembled and commissioning targeted for early 2026. The company significantly strengthened its balance sheet through PIPE financing and warrant exercises, lifting cash above $400 million by November 2025 and completing a $1.5 billion PIPE in January 2026 to upgrade the plant and expand NdFeB magnet capacity to about 1,200 metric tons. Also, the acquisition of Less Common Metals and its partnership with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies secure critical feedstock supply, supporting U.S. domestic rare-earth production and providing a tailwind to fourth-quarter performance.
Should You Buy USAR Now?
The company is making significant investments to boost its production capacity. Investors holding USAR shares should continue to do so to benefit from the solid long-term fundamentals. However, given its high operating costs and the expected loss in the quarter, prospective investors can wait for a better entry point.