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How Are Residential REITs Positioned Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
AVB is expected to report moderated Q4 results after cutting 2025 revenue, NOI and core FFO guidance.
ESS is likely to post modest revenue growth, with West Coast demand offset by pockets of supply pressure.
MAA is expected to see rent pressure from elevated Sun Belt supply and higher concessions.
We are in the middle of the current reporting cycle, and the real estate investment trust (REIT) space is buzzing with activity, with several earnings releases lined up for this week.
Among the residential REITs, Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS - Free Report) , Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA - Free Report) and AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB - Free Report) are slated to release their quarterly numbers on Feb. 4, while Equity Residential (EQR - Free Report) and Camden Property Trust (CPT - Free Report) will come up with their earnings announcement on Feb. 5.
Prior to analyzing how these residential REITs are placed ahead of their earnings release, it is important to examine how the overall apartment market has behaved in the fourth quarter.
US Apartment Market in Q4
The U.S. apartment sector showed a marked transition in the fourth quarter of 2025 as market fundamentals retreated from the historic highs of recent years toward more normalized patterns. According to RealPage’s fourth-quarter 2025 report, seasonal net move-outs returned for the first time in three years, with roughly 40,400 net units lost in the fourth quarter, signaling a shift from pandemic-era demand surges to typical seasonal dynamics. Annual absorption ended at just more than 365,900 units, the lowest annual tally since mid-2024 and closer to long-term averages than recent peaks.
On the supply side, deliveries continued to ease but remained elevated by historical standards. Approximately 409,500 units were completed in 2025, with nearly 89,400 in the fourth quarter alone, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly decline in completions. While slowing, delivery volumes still outpaced traditional decade norms, keeping pressure on occupancy and rents.
Occupancy dipped to 94.8% at year-end, and effective asking rents fell 1.7% in the fourth quarter, with annual rents down 0.6%, the deepest annual decline since early 2021. The use of concessions surged, with more than 23% of units offering concessions averaging 7%, underscoring landlords’ growing focus on occupancy over rent growth. For apartment REITs, this environment is likely to translate into muted same-store NOI growth and continued pressure on revenue metrics in early 2026.
Market segmentation was pronounced, with supply-heavy Sun Belt metros such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver and San Antonio seeing the steepest rent declines, creating challenges for REITs with outsized exposure to these regions. In contrast, coastal and tech-oriented markets, including New York, San Francisco and San Jose, continued to post modest rent gains, benefiting REITs with more supply-constrained portfolios.
Let’s see what’s in the offing for the abovementioned residential REITs.
What's in Store for These 5 Residential REITs in Q4 Earnings?
AvalonBay Communities is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results tomorrow, after market close. AvalonBay has not been spared from the current market backdrop, as its near-term outlook has moderated amid decelerating rent growth, rising expenses and softer demand, prompting reductions to its 2025 revenue, net operating income (NOI) and core FFO forecasts. A solid balance sheet, limited upcoming supply in core markets and a meaningful development pipeline position the company for longer-term stability as operating conditions normalize.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $768.33 million for fourth-quarter revenues indicates a 3.75% year-over-year increase. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has been revised 2 cents south to $2.84 over the past month. However, it implies year-over-year growth of 1.43%. (Read more: What to Expect From AvalonBay Communities Stock in Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for AvalonBay this season. AvalonBay currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of -0.35%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the trailing four quarters.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Essex Property Trust is scheduled to report tomorrow, after market close. ESS is likely to benefit from its heavy West Coast exposure, where tech-led employers drive job growth and income gains. Higher household incomes, a renter pool and demographics support demand, while elevated home prices extend renter stays. Pockets of new supply are likely to have pressured fourth-quarter leasing, tempering rent growth and occupancy.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $476.57 million for fourth-quarter revenues calls for a 4.86% increase year over year. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Essex Property projected core FFO per share in the range of $3.93-$4.03. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, Essex Property’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has remained unrevised in the past month at $4.00. However, it indicates a year-over-year jump of 2.04%.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of core FFO per share for Essex Property this season, as it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.81%.
Mid-America Apartment Communities is slated to announce results tomorrow, after market close. This Sunbelt-focused residential REIT benefits from a pro-business climate, favorable taxes and population inflows that support leasing demand. Still, the elevated new supply is likely to have challenged MAA in the fourth quarter. Despite early recovery signs in renewal rates, renter acquisition pressures probably persisted, weighing on rent growth, new lease pricing and keeping concessions high.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $557.79 million. This suggests a 1.45% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. MAA projected fourth-quarter 2025 core FFO per share in the band of $2.17-$2.29, with $2.23 at the midpoint. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has been revised a cent south to $2.22 in the past month. This also suggests a year-over-year decline of 0.45%. (Read more: What's in Store for Mid-America Apartment Stock in Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for MAA this season, as it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.33%. The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the last four quarters.
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Equity Residential is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Thursday, after market close. Despite typical seasonal pricing softness in the fourth quarter, Equity Residential is likely to have seen easing supply in several markets. Portfolio diversification across urban and suburban assets should support results. Exposure to higher-income renters, combined with a strong balance sheet, technology use and operating scale, is likely to have bolstered performance and supported ongoing development initiatives.
Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s quarterly revenues stands at $789.34 million, which indicates a 2.94% increase year over year. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company projected normalized FFO per share in the band of $1.02-$1.06. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly normalized FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past month at $1.04. However, it suggests 4% year-over-year growth. (Read more: What’s in Store for Equity Residential Stock in Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Equity Residential this season, as Equity Residential currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and has an Earnings ESP of +0.66%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the trailing four quarters.
Camden Property Trust is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Thursday, after market close. Amid industry headwinds, Camden is likely to have benefited in the fourth quarter from exposure to high-growth markets and a solid resident base, supporting rental revenues. Favorable renter demographics and a balanced urban-suburban mix added stability. Elevated supply in select markets probably intensified competition, slowing rent growth and pressuring bottom-line results.
For the fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPT’s revenues currently stands at $394.65 million, implying growth of 2.15% from the year-ago reported number. For the fourth quarter, Camden expected core FFO per share in the range of $1.71-$1.75. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past three months at $1.73, which lies within the guided range and shows no change year over year. (Read more: Should CPT Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Camden this season, as it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.97%. The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the last four quarters.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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How Are Residential REITs Positioned Ahead of Q4 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
We are in the middle of the current reporting cycle, and the real estate investment trust (REIT) space is buzzing with activity, with several earnings releases lined up for this week.
Among the residential REITs, Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS - Free Report) , Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA - Free Report) and AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB - Free Report) are slated to release their quarterly numbers on Feb. 4, while Equity Residential (EQR - Free Report) and Camden Property Trust (CPT - Free Report) will come up with their earnings announcement on Feb. 5.
Prior to analyzing how these residential REITs are placed ahead of their earnings release, it is important to examine how the overall apartment market has behaved in the fourth quarter.
US Apartment Market in Q4
The U.S. apartment sector showed a marked transition in the fourth quarter of 2025 as market fundamentals retreated from the historic highs of recent years toward more normalized patterns. According to RealPage’s fourth-quarter 2025 report, seasonal net move-outs returned for the first time in three years, with roughly 40,400 net units lost in the fourth quarter, signaling a shift from pandemic-era demand surges to typical seasonal dynamics. Annual absorption ended at just more than 365,900 units, the lowest annual tally since mid-2024 and closer to long-term averages than recent peaks.
On the supply side, deliveries continued to ease but remained elevated by historical standards. Approximately 409,500 units were completed in 2025, with nearly 89,400 in the fourth quarter alone, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly decline in completions. While slowing, delivery volumes still outpaced traditional decade norms, keeping pressure on occupancy and rents.
Occupancy dipped to 94.8% at year-end, and effective asking rents fell 1.7% in the fourth quarter, with annual rents down 0.6%, the deepest annual decline since early 2021. The use of concessions surged, with more than 23% of units offering concessions averaging 7%, underscoring landlords’ growing focus on occupancy over rent growth. For apartment REITs, this environment is likely to translate into muted same-store NOI growth and continued pressure on revenue metrics in early 2026.
Market segmentation was pronounced, with supply-heavy Sun Belt metros such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver and San Antonio seeing the steepest rent declines, creating challenges for REITs with outsized exposure to these regions. In contrast, coastal and tech-oriented markets, including New York, San Francisco and San Jose, continued to post modest rent gains, benefiting REITs with more supply-constrained portfolios.
Let’s see what’s in the offing for the abovementioned residential REITs.
What's in Store for These 5 Residential REITs in Q4 Earnings?
AvalonBay Communities is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results tomorrow, after market close. AvalonBay has not been spared from the current market backdrop, as its near-term outlook has moderated amid decelerating rent growth, rising expenses and softer demand, prompting reductions to its 2025 revenue, net operating income (NOI) and core FFO forecasts. A solid balance sheet, limited upcoming supply in core markets and a meaningful development pipeline position the company for longer-term stability as operating conditions normalize.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $768.33 million for fourth-quarter revenues indicates a 3.75% year-over-year increase. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has been revised 2 cents south to $2.84 over the past month. However, it implies year-over-year growth of 1.43%. (Read more: What to Expect From AvalonBay Communities Stock in Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for AvalonBay this season. AvalonBay currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of -0.35%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the trailing four quarters.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. price-eps-surprise | AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Quote
Essex Property Trust is scheduled to report tomorrow, after market close. ESS is likely to benefit from its heavy West Coast exposure, where tech-led employers drive job growth and income gains. Higher household incomes, a renter pool and demographics support demand, while elevated home prices extend renter stays. Pockets of new supply are likely to have pressured fourth-quarter leasing, tempering rent growth and occupancy.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $476.57 million for fourth-quarter revenues calls for a 4.86% increase year over year. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Essex Property projected core FFO per share in the range of $3.93-$4.03. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, Essex Property’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has remained unrevised in the past month at $4.00. However, it indicates a year-over-year jump of 2.04%.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of core FFO per share for Essex Property this season, as it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.81%.
(Read more: Essex Property to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect)
The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the trailing four quarters.
Essex Property Trust, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Essex Property Trust, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Essex Property Trust, Inc. Quote
Mid-America Apartment Communities is slated to announce results tomorrow, after market close. This Sunbelt-focused residential REIT benefits from a pro-business climate, favorable taxes and population inflows that support leasing demand. Still, the elevated new supply is likely to have challenged MAA in the fourth quarter. Despite early recovery signs in renewal rates, renter acquisition pressures probably persisted, weighing on rent growth, new lease pricing and keeping concessions high.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $557.79 million. This suggests a 1.45% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. MAA projected fourth-quarter 2025 core FFO per share in the band of $2.17-$2.29, with $2.23 at the midpoint. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has been revised a cent south to $2.22 in the past month. This also suggests a year-over-year decline of 0.45%. (Read more: What's in Store for Mid-America Apartment Stock in Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for MAA this season, as it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.33%. The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the last four quarters.
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Quote
Equity Residential is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Thursday, after market close. Despite typical seasonal pricing softness in the fourth quarter, Equity Residential is likely to have seen easing supply in several markets. Portfolio diversification across urban and suburban assets should support results. Exposure to higher-income renters, combined with a strong balance sheet, technology use and operating scale, is likely to have bolstered performance and supported ongoing development initiatives.
Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s quarterly revenues stands at $789.34 million, which indicates a 2.94% increase year over year. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company projected normalized FFO per share in the band of $1.02-$1.06. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly normalized FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past month at $1.04. However, it suggests 4% year-over-year growth. (Read more: What’s in Store for Equity Residential Stock in Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Equity Residential this season, as Equity Residential currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and has an Earnings ESP of +0.66%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the trailing four quarters.
Equity Residential Price and EPS Surprise
Equity Residential price-eps-surprise | Equity Residential Quote
Camden Property Trust is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Thursday, after market close. Amid industry headwinds, Camden is likely to have benefited in the fourth quarter from exposure to high-growth markets and a solid resident base, supporting rental revenues. Favorable renter demographics and a balanced urban-suburban mix added stability. Elevated supply in select markets probably intensified competition, slowing rent growth and pressuring bottom-line results.
For the fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPT’s revenues currently stands at $394.65 million, implying growth of 2.15% from the year-ago reported number. For the fourth quarter, Camden expected core FFO per share in the range of $1.71-$1.75. Before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past three months at $1.73, which lies within the guided range and shows no change year over year. (Read more: Should CPT Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?)
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Camden this season, as it currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.97%. The chart below shows the company’s earnings surprise over the last four quarters.
Camden Property Trust Price and EPS Surprise
Camden Property Trust price-eps-surprise | Camden Property Trust Quote
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.