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American Financial (AFG) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

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American Financial Group (AFG - Free Report) reported $2.02 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 2.7%. EPS of $3.65 for the same period compares to $3.12 a year ago.

The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.05 billion, representing a surprise of -1.37%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +14.66%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $3.18.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how American Financial performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
  • Property and Transportation - Loss and LAE Ratio: 56.8% versus 69.9% estimated by three analysts on average.
  • Property and Transportation - Underwriting Expense Ratio: 13.8% versus 20.7% estimated by three analysts on average.
  • Property and Transportation - Combined Ratio: 70.6% versus 90.5% estimated by three analysts on average.
  • Specialty Casualty - Loss and LAE Ratio: 68.7% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 63.7%.
  • Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Expense Ratio: 28% compared to the 25.5% average estimate based on three analysts.
  • Property and Casualty combined ratio - Specialty - Combined Ratio - Specialty: 84.1% versus 88.3% estimated by three analysts on average.
  • Specialty Financial - Underwriting Expense Ratio: 51% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 44.5%.
  • Property and Transportation- Net earned premium: $735 million compared to the $713.96 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of -2.8% year over year.
  • Specialty Casualty- Net earned premium: $812 million compared to the $798.1 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +7.7% year over year.
  • Revenues- Net earned premiums: $1.81 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $1.82 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -2.4%.
  • Revenues- Net investment income: $183 million versus $195.98 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -5.7% change.
  • Specialty Financial- Net earned premium: $259 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $283.79 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -7.2%.

View all Key Company Metrics for American Financial here>>>

Shares of American Financial have returned -4.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.8% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), indicating that it could outperform the broader market in the near term.

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