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Why 2026 is Gearing Up for an Unprecedented Economic Run

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If you’ve been watching the headlines, you understand that the U.S. economy is currently defying the usual gravity.

While growth for an economy of this size is typically modest, a perfect storm of policy shifts and tech breakthroughs suggests 2026 could be a record-breaker. 

The Momentum is Real
 

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow—the "real-time" speedometer of the economy—is currently projecting a respectable 4.2% expansion for Q4 2025.

Looking forward, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is even bolder, suggesting we could see 5–6% growth in 2026.

For a country as large as the U.S., those aren't just solid numbers; they’re historic.

But how can the U.S. achieve such growth? 

A Changing Guard at the Fed


The biggest story for your 2026 outlook is the leadership change at the Federal Reserve.

With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May, President Trump has tapped Kevin Warsh to take the reins

Wall Street Misinterprets Warsh as a “Hawk”


While some on Wall Street fear Warsh is a "hawk" (which sent silver prices tumbling recently), his past comments paint a different, albeit, nuanced picture.

First, the charts on precious metals were vertical and due for a pullback regardless of who President Trump selected as the next Fed Chair.

Second, previous interviews suggest that like Alan Greenspan in the 90s, Warsh believes that when technology makes us more productive, the economy can grow faster without triggering inflation.

“The closest analogy that I have in central banking is Alan Greenspan in 1993 and 1994. The internet revolution was with us. He believed, based on anecdotes and rather esoteric data, that we weren’t in a position where we needed to raise rates because this technology wave was going to be structurally disinflationary. A lot of his peers at the Federal Reserve, and certainly in the academic profession and economics said: 'Oh, the economy is overheating. You need to get going and raise rates. This will be inflationary.' And he sat on his hands and he persuaded his colleagues to be patient. As a result, we had a stronger economy. We had more stable prices and we had greater U.S. competitiveness," said Warsh. 

In other words, if there’s an AI productivity boom, Warsh won’t be afraid to cut rates.

Also, it’s important to know that despite the carnage in precious metals, rate cut odds actually increased after Warsh was announced as Jerome Powell’s replacement at the Fed. 

More . . .

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Investing Legends Back Warsh

Stanley Druckenmiller has long been a critic of the Federal Reserve and President Donald Trump.

However, Druckenmiller, the most consistent money manager of his time, has glowing words for Trump’s Fed pick, saying:

“The branding of Kevin as someone who’s always hawkish is not correct. I’ve seen him go both ways. I could not think of a single other individual on the planet better equipped.” 

Meanwhile, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio echoes the positive sentiment, saying:

"Kevin Warsh was a great choice. We who have been engaged with policymakers and markets for a long time know him and respect him for his capabilities and judgement. He is knowledgeable and a reasonable man who understands the risks of having a Fed policy that is too easy as well as too tight and how to judge what’s too easy and what’s too tight. Presumably, he also knows how to deal with the president and the Treasury well.”

A Massive Injection of Cash 

There are a few "stimulus" triggers sitting right in front of us for 2026:

• The Reopening Effect: Remember that 43-day government shutdown? Lutnick reckons it shaved 1.5% off GDP. With the government back in gear, that drag disappears.

• The Defense Surge: Trump is eyeing a $1.5 trillion defense budget (a 40% jump). That’s a lot of capital flowing into companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and drone tech like Red Cat Holdings (RCAT).

• The "Tariff Dividend": There’s talk of taking tariff revenue and sending it directly to Americans. Combine that with what's expected to be the largest tax refund in U.S. history, and you’ve got a consumer base with a lot of extra "dry powder."

Putting It Altogether...

Between a friendlier Fed, an AI-driven productivity spike, and a massive defense spend, the "Goldilocks" scenario for 2026 is looking more plausible by the day.

Top Market Moves to Watch Right Now

One of the strongest trends in the market is the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence, driving a lot of the momentum in the tech sector.

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All the Best,
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Andrew is Zacks' technology stock strategist. His passion is making money on stocks and providing education with valuable insights from both a fundamental and technical perspective. He invites you to explore his Technology Innovators portfolio.

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