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Grasberg Setbacks Weigh on FCX's Q4 Volumes: What Lies Ahead?
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Key Takeaways
FCX guidance indicates minimal contribution from the Indonesia operation in Q1 due to the Grasberg incident.
The mine incident drives sharp declines in expected copper and gold volumes at FCX.
Lower volumes threaten Freeport's ability to leverage favorable copper and gold prices.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s (FCX - Free Report) top and bottom lines beat expectations in the fourth quarter on sharp gains in copper and gold prices, but lower volumes were a drag. Its copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 29% year over year to 709 million pounds, and fell from 977 million pounds in the prior quarter. The company sold 80,000 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter, down around 77% year over year.
The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.
Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 reflects minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, indicating a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline. The company’s gold sales volume guidance of 60,000 ounces also suggests sequential and year-over-year decreases.
Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on its targets. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials in the first quarter.
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) logged higher copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter. Southern Copper sold 235,591 tons of copper in the quarter, rising 2.8% year over year. Southern Copper also saw higher molybdenum sales volumes, which rose 9.6% year over year.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) saw higher year-over-year copper sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Dec. 31, 2025). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter increased roughly 2% year over year to 504.5kt. BHP Group’s total second-quarter copper sales also rose around 12% from the prior quarter.
The Zacks Rundown for FCX
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan have surged 55.3% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 81.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 27.13, a 6.7% premium to the industry average of 25.43X. It carries a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 35.6% and 16.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Grasberg Setbacks Weigh on FCX's Q4 Volumes: What Lies Ahead?
Key Takeaways
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s (FCX - Free Report) top and bottom lines beat expectations in the fourth quarter on sharp gains in copper and gold prices, but lower volumes were a drag. Its copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 29% year over year to 709 million pounds, and fell from 977 million pounds in the prior quarter. The company sold 80,000 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter, down around 77% year over year.
The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.
Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 reflects minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, indicating a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline. The company’s gold sales volume guidance of 60,000 ounces also suggests sequential and year-over-year decreases.
Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on its targets. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials in the first quarter.
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) logged higher copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter. Southern Copper sold 235,591 tons of copper in the quarter, rising 2.8% year over year. Southern Copper also saw higher molybdenum sales volumes, which rose 9.6% year over year.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) saw higher year-over-year copper sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Dec. 31, 2025). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter increased roughly 2% year over year to 504.5kt. BHP Group’s total second-quarter copper sales also rose around 12% from the prior quarter.
The Zacks Rundown for FCX
Shares of Freeport-McMoRan have surged 55.3% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 81.2%.
From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 27.13, a 6.7% premium to the industry average of 25.43X. It carries a Value Score of B.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 35.6% and 16.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
FCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.