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Alcoa Surges 65.4% in 3 Months: Is the Stock Still Worth Buying?
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Key Takeaways
AA shares jumped 65.4% in three months, outperforming industry and S&P 500 gains.
AA benefits from 50% U.S. aluminum tariffs, higher prices and smelter restarts boosting output.
AA projects 2026 Aluminum production of 2.4-2.6M tonnes, with rising EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027.
Shares of Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) have been showing impressive gains of late, rising 65.4% in the past three months. The alumina, aluminum and bauxite products provider has outperformed the industry and S&P 500 composite’s growth of 59.9% and 3.8%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers, Olympic Steel, Inc. and Constellium SE (CSTM - Free Report) , have gained 49.9% and 57.8%, respectively, over the same time frame.
AA Stock’s 3-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Closing at $63.15 on Wednesday, the stock is trading below its 52-week high of $66.95 but significantly higher than its 52-week low of $21.53. The stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and price stability. This reflects a positive market sentiment and confidence in the company's financial health and long-term prospects.
AA Shares’ 50-Day and 200-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Is the Tariff a Boon to Alcoa Stock?
Demand for aluminum has increased significantly over the years, with growing popularity for lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries and recycled aluminum. Pickup in air travel has also been positive for the company as the increased usage of aircraft has led aircraft manufacturers to ramp up production, spurring demand for aluminum alloys for fuselages and wings.
With the increase in aluminum demand, the tariffs on metals gained traction. In June 2025, the U.S. administration increased tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% as a measure to correct trade imbalances and boost the domestic industry. The move has increased aluminum prices, thereby benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa.
Business Momentum
The company’s Aluminum segment is witnessing strong demand in electrical and packaging markets. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián (Spain), Alumar (Brazil), and Lista (Norway) smelters has increased AA’s overall production capacity. In 2025, Alcoa’s production from the Aluminum segment increased 5% on a year-over-year basis to 2,319 kilo metric tons.
Third-party revenues from the segment increased 4%, supported by higher volumes and an increase in average realized third-party price. For 2026, the Aluminum segment is projected to produce 2.4-2.6 million tonnes, while shipments are anticipated to be in the band of 2.6-2.8 million tonnes.
Alcoa’s Alumina segment is benefiting from healthy production and improvement in productivity at its refineries. However, the closure of the company’s Kwinana refinery has been affecting its production and shipment volumes. AA expects alumina production in 2026 to be in the range of 9.7-9.9 million tonnes, while shipments are likely to be 11.8-12.0 million tonnes.
AA also remains focused on acquiring new assets to boost its organic growth and expand its presence across markets. For instance, the company’s acquisition of Alumina Limited (in August 2024) solidified its position as one of the world’s largest bauxite and alumina producers. The buyout will provide Alcoa with long-term value creation due to greater financial and operational flexibility.
Alcoa’s Stock Valuation
With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.72X, which is almost in line with the industry average of 12.69X, Alcoa stock presents a decent valuation for investors. The stock is also trading cheaper than both of its peers, Olympic Steel and Constellium. Notably, Olympic Steel and Constellium are currently trading at 17.06X and 14.25X, respectively.
Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Estimate Revision
Earnings estimates for AA have moved north over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The company’s earnings estimates for 2026 have surged 38.5% to $5.18 per share over the past 60 days. Also, earnings estimates for 2027 have increased 27.4% to $5.26 per share over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Should You Bet on AA Stock Now?
Persistent strength in Alcoa’s Aluminum and Alumina segments, along with its strong foothold in the bauxite market, positions it favorably for impressive growth in the long term. The company’s strategic acquisitions and collaborations with stakeholders to expand its production capacities are also expected to support its top-line performance.
Also, its decent valuation, positive analyst sentiment and robust growth prospects indicate it is an ideal time for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Alcoa Surges 65.4% in 3 Months: Is the Stock Still Worth Buying?
Key Takeaways
Shares of Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) have been showing impressive gains of late, rising 65.4% in the past three months. The alumina, aluminum and bauxite products provider has outperformed the industry and S&P 500 composite’s growth of 59.9% and 3.8%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers, Olympic Steel, Inc. and Constellium SE (CSTM - Free Report) , have gained 49.9% and 57.8%, respectively, over the same time frame.
AA Stock’s 3-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Closing at $63.15 on Wednesday, the stock is trading below its 52-week high of $66.95 but significantly higher than its 52-week low of $21.53. The stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and price stability. This reflects a positive market sentiment and confidence in the company's financial health and long-term prospects.
AA Shares’ 50-Day and 200-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Is the Tariff a Boon to Alcoa Stock?
Demand for aluminum has increased significantly over the years, with growing popularity for lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries and recycled aluminum. Pickup in air travel has also been positive for the company as the increased usage of aircraft has led aircraft manufacturers to ramp up production, spurring demand for aluminum alloys for fuselages and wings.
With the increase in aluminum demand, the tariffs on metals gained traction. In June 2025, the U.S. administration increased tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% as a measure to correct trade imbalances and boost the domestic industry. The move has increased aluminum prices, thereby benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa.
Business Momentum
The company’s Aluminum segment is witnessing strong demand in electrical and packaging markets. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián (Spain), Alumar (Brazil), and Lista (Norway) smelters has increased AA’s overall production capacity. In 2025, Alcoa’s production from the Aluminum segment increased 5% on a year-over-year basis to 2,319 kilo metric tons.
Third-party revenues from the segment increased 4%, supported by higher volumes and an increase in average realized third-party price. For 2026, the Aluminum segment is projected to produce 2.4-2.6 million tonnes, while shipments are anticipated to be in the band of 2.6-2.8 million tonnes.
Alcoa’s Alumina segment is benefiting from healthy production and improvement in productivity at its refineries. However, the closure of the company’s Kwinana refinery has been affecting its production and shipment volumes. AA expects alumina production in 2026 to be in the range of 9.7-9.9 million tonnes, while shipments are likely to be 11.8-12.0 million tonnes.
AA also remains focused on acquiring new assets to boost its organic growth and expand its presence across markets. For instance, the company’s acquisition of Alumina Limited (in August 2024) solidified its position as one of the world’s largest bauxite and alumina producers. The buyout will provide Alcoa with long-term value creation due to greater financial and operational flexibility.
Alcoa’s Stock Valuation
With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.72X, which is almost in line with the industry average of 12.69X, Alcoa stock presents a decent valuation for investors. The stock is also trading cheaper than both of its peers, Olympic Steel and Constellium. Notably, Olympic Steel and Constellium are currently trading at 17.06X and 14.25X, respectively.
Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Estimate Revision
Earnings estimates for AA have moved north over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The company’s earnings estimates for 2026 have surged 38.5% to $5.18 per share over the past 60 days. Also, earnings estimates for 2027 have increased 27.4% to $5.26 per share over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Should You Bet on AA Stock Now?
Persistent strength in Alcoa’s Aluminum and Alumina segments, along with its strong foothold in the bauxite market, positions it favorably for impressive growth in the long term. The company’s strategic acquisitions and collaborations with stakeholders to expand its production capacities are also expected to support its top-line performance.
Also, its decent valuation, positive analyst sentiment and robust growth prospects indicate it is an ideal time for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.