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MP Stock Surges 148% in a Year: Worth Including in Your Portfolio?
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Key Takeaways
MP shares have jumped 148.5% in a year, far outpacing the industry and broader market gains.
MP Materials boosted NdPr output 51% in Q3, surpassing prior records and 2024 production levels.
MP trades at 23.35X forward sales, while earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have moved lower.
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) shares have soared 148.5% in the past one year, significantly outperforming the industry’s 50.1% growth, the Zacks Basic Materials sector’s 44.7% rise and the S&P 500’s gain of 15.7%.
MP Stock's YTD Performance Against Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, other players in the rare earths space, Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) and Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) have fared better in the same timeframe, gaining 162% and 148.5% respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP’s Performance vs. Energy Fuels & Lynas
In this context, it is important to evaluate whether chasing MP’s rally is justified by examining the key drivers behind its performance, their sustainability and the company’s growth prospects and potential risks before making an investment decision.
In July 2025, MP Materials announced a landmark long-term agreement to supply Apple (AAPL) with rare earth magnets manufactured in the United States, entirely from recycled materials. Apple and MP Materials have collaborated over the past five years to develop advanced recycling technology that enables recycled rare earth magnets to be processed into material that meets Apple’s rigorous standards. Also, in July, MP Materials entered into a partnership with the Department of War (DoW), which will fast-track the development of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.
In November, MP Materials announced that it partnered with the DoW to establish a joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to develop a rare earth refinery in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This will leverage Saudi Arabia’s competitive energy base, solid infrastructure and the untapped rare earth resources.
MP Materials Shows Solid Operational Momentum
MP Materials is demonstrating strong growth in rare earth production, with back-to-back solid quarterly performances. Production of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) reached 721 metric tons in the third quarter of 2025, a 51% jump from the year-ago quarter. This outscored MP Materials’ previous record NdPr production of 597 metric tons in the second quarter.
The company’s NdPr production amounted to 1,881 MT for the first nine months of 2025, 114% higher than the prior year. MP has already surpassed its 2024 NdPr production of 1,294 MT. The company has been ramping up its NdPr production since it started production in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production fell 4% year over year to 13,254 metric tons (MT) in the third quarter. Despite this, it was the second-highest quarter on record in the company’s history. MP Materials reported REO production of 13,145 metric tons in the second quarter of 2025. This momentum is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter as well. The company is scheduled to report results on Feb. 26.
MP’s Estimate Revisions Signal Near-Term Pressure
The company’s strategy of producing and selling more separated products at Mountain Pass and the ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products are expected to have led to higher costs in 2025 and likely lead to a full-year loss. The company, however, expects a return to profitability in fourth-quarter 2025 and 2026. With the DoW’s Price Protection Agreement commencing on Oct. 1, 2025, it will provide revenue stability and offset margin pressure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 revenues projects 13.7% year-over-year growth in 2025, and a further 80.7% rise in 2026. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is, however, pegged at a loss of 32 cents per share. The estimate for 2026 stands at earnings of 61 cents per share, implying a turnaround.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved south over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials Stock Trades at a Premium
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 23.35X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.30X. The company’s Value Score of F suggests that the stock is not so cheap and has a stretched valuation at this moment.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels is trading higher at 49.83X while Lynas is comparatively a cheaper option, trading at 13.65X.
MP Materials Seems Well-Positioned for Long-Term Growth
The company operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. These materials are essential for a wide range of existing and emerging clean-tech technologies, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, drones and defense systems. With China dominating the global supply, the United States is increasingly prioritizing the development of domestic rare earth capabilities.
The multi-billion-dollar investment package and long-term commitments from DoW provide MP Materials the opportunity to capitalize on this. MP will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility), which will take total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons, and cater to both defense and commercial sectors. The $500-million agreement with Apple marks a transformative step for MP, launching its recycling platform and scaling up its magnet production business.
Our Verdict on MP Stock
MP Materials’ unique positioning within the U.S. rare earth supply chain, continued operational ramp-up and high-profile partnerships with Apple and the DoW underscore a compelling long-term growth narrative. However, elevated valuation levels and downward earnings estimate revisions temper the near-term risk-reward profile. Until earnings visibility improves and valuation multiples normalize, a cautious stance appears warranted.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
MP Stock Surges 148% in a Year: Worth Including in Your Portfolio?
Key Takeaways
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) shares have soared 148.5% in the past one year, significantly outperforming the industry’s 50.1% growth, the Zacks Basic Materials sector’s 44.7% rise and the S&P 500’s gain of 15.7%.
MP Stock's YTD Performance Against Industry, Sector & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, other players in the rare earths space, Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) and Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) have fared better in the same timeframe, gaining 162% and 148.5% respectively.
MP’s Performance vs. Energy Fuels & Lynas
In this context, it is important to evaluate whether chasing MP’s rally is justified by examining the key drivers behind its performance, their sustainability and the company’s growth prospects and potential risks before making an investment decision.
Strategic Alliances Reinforce MP's Long-Term Prospects
In July 2025, MP Materials announced a landmark long-term agreement to supply Apple (AAPL) with rare earth magnets manufactured in the United States, entirely from recycled materials. Apple and MP Materials have collaborated over the past five years to develop advanced recycling technology that enables recycled rare earth magnets to be processed into material that meets Apple’s rigorous standards. Also, in July, MP Materials entered into a partnership with the Department of War (DoW), which will fast-track the development of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.
In November, MP Materials announced that it partnered with the DoW to establish a joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to develop a rare earth refinery in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This will leverage Saudi Arabia’s competitive energy base, solid infrastructure and the untapped rare earth resources.
MP Materials Shows Solid Operational Momentum
MP Materials is demonstrating strong growth in rare earth production, with back-to-back solid quarterly performances. Production of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) reached 721 metric tons in the third quarter of 2025, a 51% jump from the year-ago quarter. This outscored MP Materials’ previous record NdPr production of 597 metric tons in the second quarter.
The company’s NdPr production amounted to 1,881 MT for the first nine months of 2025, 114% higher than the prior year. MP has already surpassed its 2024 NdPr production of 1,294 MT. The company has been ramping up its NdPr production since it started production in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production fell 4% year over year to 13,254 metric tons (MT) in the third quarter. Despite this, it was the second-highest quarter on record in the company’s history. MP Materials reported REO production of 13,145 metric tons in the second quarter of 2025.
This momentum is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter as well. The company is scheduled to report results on Feb. 26.
MP’s Estimate Revisions Signal Near-Term Pressure
The company’s strategy of producing and selling more separated products at Mountain Pass and the ramp-up of output of magnetic precursor products are expected to have led to higher costs in 2025 and likely lead to a full-year loss. The company, however, expects a return to profitability in fourth-quarter 2025 and 2026. With the DoW’s Price Protection Agreement commencing on Oct. 1, 2025, it will provide revenue stability and offset margin pressure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2025 revenues projects 13.7% year-over-year growth in 2025, and a further 80.7% rise in 2026. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is, however, pegged at a loss of 32 cents per share. The estimate for 2026 stands at earnings of 61 cents per share, implying a turnaround.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved south over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials Stock Trades at a Premium
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 23.35X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.30X. The company’s Value Score of F suggests that the stock is not so cheap and has a stretched valuation at this moment.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels is trading higher at 49.83X while Lynas is comparatively a cheaper option, trading at 13.65X.
MP Materials Seems Well-Positioned for Long-Term Growth
The company operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. These materials are essential for a wide range of existing and emerging clean-tech technologies, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, drones and defense systems. With China dominating the global supply, the United States is increasingly prioritizing the development of domestic rare earth capabilities.
The multi-billion-dollar investment package and long-term commitments from DoW provide MP Materials the opportunity to capitalize on this. MP will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility), which will take total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons, and cater to both defense and commercial sectors. The $500-million agreement with Apple marks a transformative step for MP, launching its recycling platform and scaling up its magnet production business.
Our Verdict on MP Stock
MP Materials’ unique positioning within the U.S. rare earth supply chain, continued operational ramp-up and high-profile partnerships with Apple and the DoW underscore a compelling long-term growth narrative. However, elevated valuation levels and downward earnings estimate revisions temper the near-term risk-reward profile. Until earnings visibility improves and valuation multiples normalize, a cautious stance appears warranted.
MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.