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Carvana Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Key Takeaways
CVNA is set to report Q4 2025 results on Feb. 18, with EPS seen at $1.13 and revenues at $5.20B.
CVNA expects to retail about 150,000 units in Q4, up from 114,379 a year ago.
Carvana targets full-year adjusted EBITDA of $2-$2.2B after $637M in Q3, with margins at 11.3%.
Carvana Co. (CVNA - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 18, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $1.13 and $5.20 billion, respectively.
For the fourth quarter, the consensus estimate for Carvana’s earnings has moved up 2 cents in the past seven days. Its bottom-line estimates imply 101.8% growth from the year-ago reported numbers.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVNA's quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 46.7%. The company's earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 57.12%. This is depicted in the graph below:
In the third quarter of 2025, CVNA’s adjusted EPS of $1.03 lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.33 but increased from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 64 cents. The company reported net sales of $5.65 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.6%. The top line also rose 55% year over year.
Things to Note
Retail units sold continued to grow in the third quarter of 2025, rising 44% on strong demand to 155,941 units, setting a new record. In the fourth quarter, the momentum is expected to be strong, with the company expecting to retail around 150,000 units, up from 114,379 in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
CVNA is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency across the business, with several technology, process and product initiatives underway. Carvana recorded adjusted EBITDA of $637 million, up from $208 million in the corresponding quarter of 2024, with industry-leading margins of 11.3%. For the full year, it forecasts adjusted EBITDA in the band of $2-$2.2 billion, up from $1.38 billion recorded last year.
The expected increase in unit sales in the fourth quarter and full-year EBITDA is likely to have boosted the company’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In the first nine months of 2025, the company’s capital expenditure rose to $96 million from $67 million in the same period of 2024. CVNA continues to invest in building capacity well ahead of future growth. Although investment in capacity expansion bodes well for the company’s prospects, it is likely to have hurt the company’s cash flows in the to-be-reported quarter.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Carvana for the quarter to be reported, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: CVNA has an Earnings ESP of -1.56%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 35 cents per share.
GTX surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 28.22%.
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 at present. It is scheduled to post fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 24. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of $2.49 per share.
LCID surpassed earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 14.73%.
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of -2.23% and a Zacks Rank #4 at present. It is scheduled to post second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on March 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $27.59 per share.
AZO missed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average negative surprise being 3.54%.
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Carvana Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Key Takeaways
Carvana Co. (CVNA - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 18, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $1.13 and $5.20 billion, respectively.
For the fourth quarter, the consensus estimate for Carvana’s earnings has moved up 2 cents in the past seven days. Its bottom-line estimates imply 101.8% growth from the year-ago reported numbers.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVNA's quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 46.7%. The company's earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 57.12%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Carvana Co. Price and EPS Surprise
Carvana Co. price-eps-surprise | Carvana Co. Quote
Highlights
In the third quarter of 2025, CVNA’s adjusted EPS of $1.03 lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.33 but increased from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 64 cents. The company reported net sales of $5.65 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.6%. The top line also rose 55% year over year.
Things to Note
Retail units sold continued to grow in the third quarter of 2025, rising 44% on strong demand to 155,941 units, setting a new record. In the fourth quarter, the momentum is expected to be strong, with the company expecting to retail around 150,000 units, up from 114,379 in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
CVNA is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency across the business, with several technology, process and product initiatives underway. Carvana recorded adjusted EBITDA of $637 million, up from $208 million in the corresponding quarter of 2024, with industry-leading margins of 11.3%. For the full year, it forecasts adjusted EBITDA in the band of $2-$2.2 billion, up from $1.38 billion recorded last year.
The expected increase in unit sales in the fourth quarter and full-year EBITDA is likely to have boosted the company’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In the first nine months of 2025, the company’s capital expenditure rose to $96 million from $67 million in the same period of 2024. CVNA continues to invest in building capacity well ahead of future growth. Although investment in capacity expansion bodes well for the company’s prospects, it is likely to have hurt the company’s cash flows in the to-be-reported quarter.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Carvana for the quarter to be reported, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: CVNA has an Earnings ESP of -1.56%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Earnings Whispers for Other Auto Stocks
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. The company is slated to post fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 19. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 35 cents per share.
GTX surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 28.22%.
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 at present. It is scheduled to post fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 24. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of $2.49 per share.
LCID surpassed earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 14.73%.
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of -2.23% and a Zacks Rank #4 at present. It is scheduled to post second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on March 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $27.59 per share.
AZO missed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average negative surprise being 3.54%.