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The earnings focus remains on the retail space, with several bellwether operators on deck to report results this week, including Target, Best Buy, Costco, Macy’s and others.
The earnings releases thus far provide a reassuring view of consumer spending, with broad spending trends largely stable and in line with what we have been seeing in recent quarters. That said, cumulative inflation remains a headwind, particularly at the lower end of income distribution. The stable aggregate spending trends reflect strength among high-income and younger consumer groups, with the bulk of the outlays going towards essentials and experiences.
Demand for discretionary spending categories such as big-ticket merchandise has remained soft in the post-COVID period, though recent results from Walmart show some signs of improvement. Weakness in the discretionary spending categories explains a big part of Target’s underperformance relative to Walmart and others over the past year, though Target shares are off to a great start in 2026.
As noted earlier, Target shares have done exceptionally well this year, up +15.6% and outperforming Walmart’s 15% rise and the broader market’s +0.6% gain.
Target shares were down following each of the last five quarterly releases. Still, the stock’s recent momentum suggests that market participants expect management to provide a positive outlook when they report before the market’s open on Tuesday (March 3rd).
The expectation is for Target to report $2.17 per share in earnings on $30.52 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of -10% and -1.3%, respectively. Estimates had modestly inched up following the February 10th management update but have remained unchanged since then. Comps are expected to be down -2.48%, which would follow the company’s disappointing showing on this count in the preceding period, when it reported a -2.7% comp decline vs. expectations of -1.89%.
Best Buy is expected to come out with EPS of $2.48 on $13.91 billion in revenues Tuesday morning, representing year-over-year changes of -3.9% and -0.3%, respectively. With respect to same-store sales, the expectation is a +0.14% gain, following the +2.7% gain in the last quarterly release on November 25th, relative to expectations of +1.57% comp growth.
Best Buy shares were up following the November release, as the Q3 comp growth had beaten expectations in a big way. The revisions trend has been modestly negative, reflecting the relatively soft holiday sales for the electronics category. There is likely not a whole lot of downside risk in Best Buy shares at this stage, but negative surprises on the comps front will likely put more pressure on the stock.
With respect to the Retail sector’s 2025 Q4 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 22 of the 30 retailers in the S&P 500 index. Regular readers know that Zacks has a dedicated stand-alone economic sector for the retail space, which is unlike the placement of the space in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors in the Standard & Poor’s standard industry classification. The Zacks Retail sector includes not only Target, Best Buy, and other traditional retailers, but also online vendors like Amazon and restaurant players.
Total Q4 earnings for these 22 retailers that have reported are up +6.9% from the same period last year on +8.6% higher revenues, with 50% beating EPS estimates and 77.3% beating revenue estimates.
The proportion of these companies beating consensus EPS estimates is the lowest at 50% for this group of 22 retailers in the index over the preceding 5-year period. We should also note that the sector’s 50% EPS beats percentage is the lowest, along with the Auto sector, of all 16 Zacks sectors this earnings season.
With respect to the elevated earnings growth rate at this stage, we like to show the group’s performance with and without Amazon, whose results are among the 22 companies that have already reported. As we know, Amazon’s Q4 earnings were up +5.9% on +13.6% higher revenues, as it missed EPS and revenue expectations.
Q4 Earnings Season Scorecard
Through Friday, February 27th, we have seen Q4 results from 481 S&P 500 members, or 96.2% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +15.1% from the same period last year on +9.4% higher revenues, with 74.8% beating EPS estimates and 73.4% beating revenue estimates.
We have more than 300 companies on deck to report results this week, including 12 index members. The week’s line-up includes Broadcom, along with the aforementioned retailers.
For a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>> Retail Sector Earnings in Focus
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Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Target, Best Buy, Costco, Macy's, Walmart and Amazon are part of Zacks Earnings Preview
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – March 2, 2026 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Target (TGT - Free Report) , Best Buy (BBY - Free Report) , Costco (COST - Free Report) , Macy’s (M - Free Report) , Walmart (WMT - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) .
More Retail Earnings Ahead: A Closer Look
The earnings focus remains on the retail space, with several bellwether operators on deck to report results this week, including Target, Best Buy, Costco, Macy’s and others.
The earnings releases thus far provide a reassuring view of consumer spending, with broad spending trends largely stable and in line with what we have been seeing in recent quarters. That said, cumulative inflation remains a headwind, particularly at the lower end of income distribution. The stable aggregate spending trends reflect strength among high-income and younger consumer groups, with the bulk of the outlays going towards essentials and experiences.
Demand for discretionary spending categories such as big-ticket merchandise has remained soft in the post-COVID period, though recent results from Walmart show some signs of improvement. Weakness in the discretionary spending categories explains a big part of Target’s underperformance relative to Walmart and others over the past year, though Target shares are off to a great start in 2026.
As noted earlier, Target shares have done exceptionally well this year, up +15.6% and outperforming Walmart’s 15% rise and the broader market’s +0.6% gain.
Target shares were down following each of the last five quarterly releases. Still, the stock’s recent momentum suggests that market participants expect management to provide a positive outlook when they report before the market’s open on Tuesday (March 3rd).
The expectation is for Target to report $2.17 per share in earnings on $30.52 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of -10% and -1.3%, respectively. Estimates had modestly inched up following the February 10th management update but have remained unchanged since then. Comps are expected to be down -2.48%, which would follow the company’s disappointing showing on this count in the preceding period, when it reported a -2.7% comp decline vs. expectations of -1.89%.
Best Buy is expected to come out with EPS of $2.48 on $13.91 billion in revenues Tuesday morning, representing year-over-year changes of -3.9% and -0.3%, respectively. With respect to same-store sales, the expectation is a +0.14% gain, following the +2.7% gain in the last quarterly release on November 25th, relative to expectations of +1.57% comp growth.
Best Buy shares were up following the November release, as the Q3 comp growth had beaten expectations in a big way. The revisions trend has been modestly negative, reflecting the relatively soft holiday sales for the electronics category. There is likely not a whole lot of downside risk in Best Buy shares at this stage, but negative surprises on the comps front will likely put more pressure on the stock.
With respect to the Retail sector’s 2025 Q4 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 22 of the 30 retailers in the S&P 500 index. Regular readers know that Zacks has a dedicated stand-alone economic sector for the retail space, which is unlike the placement of the space in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors in the Standard & Poor’s standard industry classification. The Zacks Retail sector includes not only Target, Best Buy, and other traditional retailers, but also online vendors like Amazon and restaurant players.
Total Q4 earnings for these 22 retailers that have reported are up +6.9% from the same period last year on +8.6% higher revenues, with 50% beating EPS estimates and 77.3% beating revenue estimates.
The proportion of these companies beating consensus EPS estimates is the lowest at 50% for this group of 22 retailers in the index over the preceding 5-year period. We should also note that the sector’s 50% EPS beats percentage is the lowest, along with the Auto sector, of all 16 Zacks sectors this earnings season.
With respect to the elevated earnings growth rate at this stage, we like to show the group’s performance with and without Amazon, whose results are among the 22 companies that have already reported. As we know, Amazon’s Q4 earnings were up +5.9% on +13.6% higher revenues, as it missed EPS and revenue expectations.
Q4 Earnings Season Scorecard
Through Friday, February 27th, we have seen Q4 results from 481 S&P 500 members, or 96.2% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +15.1% from the same period last year on +9.4% higher revenues, with 74.8% beating EPS estimates and 73.4% beating revenue estimates.
We have more than 300 companies on deck to report results this week, including 12 index members. The week’s line-up includes Broadcom, along with the aforementioned retailers.
For a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>> Retail Sector Earnings in Focus
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
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Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.