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Should You Avoid QCOM Stock Amid Declining Estimate Revisions?
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Key Takeaways
QCOM earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27 cut 7.3% and 8.4% in 60 days, signaling bearish sentiment.
QCOM faces China trade restrictions, weaker spending and rising inventory among smartphone customers.
QCOM sees Q2 FY26 revenue of $10.2B$11B, with handset sales near $6B amid reduced chip orders.
Earnings estimates for Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM - Free Report) for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 have declined 7.3% and 8.4%, respectively, to $11.20 and $11.45 per share over the past 60 days. The negative estimate revision depicts bearish sentiments about the stock’s growth potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Ails QCOM?
The continued U.S.-China trade spat has dented Qualcomm’s growth potential. The chip-making firm has a significant presence in more than 12 cities in China, aiming to drive advancements in semiconductors and mobile telecommunications for the larger benefit. The company has been a key supplier of chips and other related components to local smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, Huawei and its spin-off brand Honor. However, it appears that Qualcomm is increasingly finding it difficult to maintain its operations in China.
The U.S. Commerce Department has long imposed various trade restrictions on China, including bans on the sale of high-tech equipment, chips, components and related technologies used to develop high-end smartphones and AI-enabled chips. As Washington tightens trade restrictions, Beijing has intensified its push for self-sufficiency in critical industries. This shift poses a dual challenge for QCOM, as it faces potential market restrictions and increased competition from domestic chipmakers. In addition, weaker spending across consumer and enterprise markets, especially in China, led to higher customer inventory levels.
Demand Softness Hurts QCOM
Qualcomm is expected to face softness in demand in the near term. For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Qualcomm expects GAAP revenues of $10.2-$11 billion with constrained handset revenues of about $6 billion, due to reduced chip orders and near-term uncertainty in memory supply and pricing for handset OEMs. In addition, OEMs based in the communist nation are largely pulling back on new 4G device orders and managing their inventory in advance for the transition to 5G. Consequently, Qualcomm expects a significant impact on device shipments as sell-in and sell-through growth rates realign and channel inventory levels are drawn down.
QCOM Margins Eroded by High R&D Costs
To add to the woes, Qualcomm's margins have declined over the years due to high operating expenses and R&D (research & development) costs. The company expects softness in the handset market and a weaker overall mix of devices to continue in the near future. The shift in the share among original equipment manufacturers at the premium tier has reduced the near-term opportunity to sell integrated chipsets from the Snapdragon platform.
In addition, Qualcomm faces stiff competitive pressures from rivals Broadcom and Hewlett Packard. Aggressive competition from low-cost chip manufacturers and established players in the mobile phone chipset market is also likely to hurt Qualcomm's profits. Although the global smartphone market is expected to maintain its momentum over the next three to four years, a major portion of this growth is likely to come from the low-cost emerging markets, which may weigh on Qualcomm's margins.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance
Qualcomm’s shares have declined 15% over the past year against the industry’s growth of 57.1%. It has lagged peers like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE - Free Report) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO - Free Report) . While Hewlett Packard has jumped 35.8%, Broadcom surged 69.7% over this period.
One-Year QCOM Stock Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
QCOM Bets Big on Snapdragon & Automotive Business
Qualcomm envisions solid growth opportunities within the mobile space, driven by the strength of its Snapdragon portfolio. Leveraging processors with multi-core CPUs with cutting-edge features, amazing graphics and worldwide network connectivity, Qualcomm Snapdragon mobile platforms are fast with superb power efficiency, brilliant camera capabilities and state-of-the-art security solutions. The company is also foraying deeper into the realm of AI capabilities within the laptop and desktop business with the launch of the Snapdragon X chip for mid-range AI desktops and laptops.
Qualcomm is gaining traction in the vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication systems market with the buyout of Autotalks. With seamless access to Autotalks’ comprehensive V2X expertise, it has been able to offer an extensive suite of automotive-qualified global V2X solutions for installation in vehicles, as well as two-wheelers and roadside infrastructure.
End Note
Qualcomm is likely to benefit from robust automotive and Snapdragon traction. A strong emphasis on quality, diligent execution of operational plans and continuous portfolio enhancements are driving more value for customers.
However, with declining earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing negative investor sentiment. Moreover, stiff competition and softness in key end markets are likely to put pressure on the bottom-line growth. High R&D costs erode its profitability to a large extent. Qualcomm is facing a tough operating environment in China amid escalating tariffs, raising questions about its long-term viability plans in the communist country. It also faces reduced chip orders and near-term uncertainty in memory supply. Consequently, it might be prudent to avoid the stock at the moment.
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Should You Avoid QCOM Stock Amid Declining Estimate Revisions?
Key Takeaways
Earnings estimates for Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM - Free Report) for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 have declined 7.3% and 8.4%, respectively, to $11.20 and $11.45 per share over the past 60 days. The negative estimate revision depicts bearish sentiments about the stock’s growth potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Ails QCOM?
The continued U.S.-China trade spat has dented Qualcomm’s growth potential. The chip-making firm has a significant presence in more than 12 cities in China, aiming to drive advancements in semiconductors and mobile telecommunications for the larger benefit. The company has been a key supplier of chips and other related components to local smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, Huawei and its spin-off brand Honor. However, it appears that Qualcomm is increasingly finding it difficult to maintain its operations in China.
The U.S. Commerce Department has long imposed various trade restrictions on China, including bans on the sale of high-tech equipment, chips, components and related technologies used to develop high-end smartphones and AI-enabled chips. As Washington tightens trade restrictions, Beijing has intensified its push for self-sufficiency in critical industries. This shift poses a dual challenge for QCOM, as it faces potential market restrictions and increased competition from domestic chipmakers. In addition, weaker spending across consumer and enterprise markets, especially in China, led to higher customer inventory levels.
Demand Softness Hurts QCOM
Qualcomm is expected to face softness in demand in the near term. For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Qualcomm expects GAAP revenues of $10.2-$11 billion with constrained handset revenues of about $6 billion, due to reduced chip orders and near-term uncertainty in memory supply and pricing for handset OEMs. In addition, OEMs based in the communist nation are largely pulling back on new 4G device orders and managing their inventory in advance for the transition to 5G. Consequently, Qualcomm expects a significant impact on device shipments as sell-in and sell-through growth rates realign and channel inventory levels are drawn down.
QCOM Margins Eroded by High R&D Costs
To add to the woes, Qualcomm's margins have declined over the years due to high operating expenses and R&D (research & development) costs. The company expects softness in the handset market and a weaker overall mix of devices to continue in the near future. The shift in the share among original equipment manufacturers at the premium tier has reduced the near-term opportunity to sell integrated chipsets from the Snapdragon platform.
In addition, Qualcomm faces stiff competitive pressures from rivals Broadcom and Hewlett Packard. Aggressive competition from low-cost chip manufacturers and established players in the mobile phone chipset market is also likely to hurt Qualcomm's profits. Although the global smartphone market is expected to maintain its momentum over the next three to four years, a major portion of this growth is likely to come from the low-cost emerging markets, which may weigh on Qualcomm's margins.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance
Qualcomm’s shares have declined 15% over the past year against the industry’s growth of 57.1%. It has lagged peers like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE - Free Report) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO - Free Report) . While Hewlett Packard has jumped 35.8%, Broadcom surged 69.7% over this period.
One-Year QCOM Stock Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
QCOM Bets Big on Snapdragon & Automotive Business
Qualcomm envisions solid growth opportunities within the mobile space, driven by the strength of its Snapdragon portfolio. Leveraging processors with multi-core CPUs with cutting-edge features, amazing graphics and worldwide network connectivity, Qualcomm Snapdragon mobile platforms are fast with superb power efficiency, brilliant camera capabilities and state-of-the-art security solutions. The company is also foraying deeper into the realm of AI capabilities within the laptop and desktop business with the launch of the Snapdragon X chip for mid-range AI desktops and laptops.
Qualcomm is gaining traction in the vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication systems market with the buyout of Autotalks. With seamless access to Autotalks’ comprehensive V2X expertise, it has been able to offer an extensive suite of automotive-qualified global V2X solutions for installation in vehicles, as well as two-wheelers and roadside infrastructure.
End Note
Qualcomm is likely to benefit from robust automotive and Snapdragon traction. A strong emphasis on quality, diligent execution of operational plans and continuous portfolio enhancements are driving more value for customers.
However, with declining earnings estimates, the stock is witnessing negative investor sentiment. Moreover, stiff competition and softness in key end markets are likely to put pressure on the bottom-line growth. High R&D costs erode its profitability to a large extent. Qualcomm is facing a tough operating environment in China amid escalating tariffs, raising questions about its long-term viability plans in the communist country. It also faces reduced chip orders and near-term uncertainty in memory supply. Consequently, it might be prudent to avoid the stock at the moment.
Qualcomm carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.