It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UBS (UBS Quick QuoteUBS - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UBS due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for UBS Group AG before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

UBS Group Q4 Earnings & Revenues Increase Y/Y, Expenses Decline

UBS Group reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.19 billion compared with $770 million in the prior-year quarter.

Results were driven by the strong performances of the Global Wealth Management, Asset Management and Investment Bank divisions. However, the decline in total assets was concerning.

For 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $7.77 billion compared with $5.08 billion in the prior-year quarter.

Revenues & Expenses

The company’s fourth-quarter total revenues increased 4.4% year over year to $12.14 billion.

For 2025, the company’s revenues rose 1.9% year over year to $49.6 billion.

Operating expenses fell nearly 1% year over year to $10.29 billion.

UBS Group reported total credit loss expenses of $159 million, which declined 30.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Business Divisions’ Performance

Global Wealth Management’s operating profit before tax was $1.29 billion, up from $867 million in the year-ago quarter.

Asset Management’s operating profit before tax was $212 million, up 65.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Personal & Corporate Banking reported operating profit before tax of $565 million, down 5% year over year.

The Investment Bank unit reported an operating profit before tax of $640 million, up from $479 million in the year-ago quarter.

Non-Core & Legacy incurred an operating loss before tax of $455 million in the reported quarter compared with a loss of $923 million in the year-ago quarter.

Group Items reported an operating loss before tax of $552 million compared with a loss of $100 million in the year-ago quarter.

Capital Position

Total assets fell nearly 1% from the previous quarter’s end to $1.62 trillion.

The company’s return on Common Equity Tier 1 capital was 6.6% as of Dec. 31, 2025, compared with 4.2% as of Dec. 31, 2024.

The risk-weighted assets declined 1% year over year to $493.4 billion.

The CET1 capital declined marginally year over year to $71.3 billion. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the company's invested assets were $7 trillion, up 15.1% year over year.

Outlook

Management expects the Underlying Return on CET1 2026 exit rate is now expected to be around 15–16%, compared with the prior expectation of 15%.

The underlying cost-to-income ratio 2026 exit rate is expected to be less than 70%.

Management expects gross cost savings of around $13.5 billion which increased from $13 billion by the end of 2026 compared with the 2022 combined cost base of UBS Group and Credit Suisse.

CET 1 capital ratio is expected to be around 14% and CET1 leverage ratio of greater than 4% by 2026.

For the first quarter of 2026, management expects a low single-digit percentage decline in net interest income. 

For full-year 2026, Global Wealth Management NII is projected to increase by low single digits year over year, while Personal & Corporate Banking NII is projected to rise by a mid-single-digit percentage.

Division Targets

The company expects the Global Wealth Management business to surpass $5 trillion of invested assets by 2028, with net new assets expected to exceed $125 billion in 2026 and more than $200 billion per annum by 2028.

Personal & Corporate Banking business is anticipated to witness an underlying cost / income ratio of less than 50% by the end of 2026. However, ongoing low Swiss franc interest rates could delay reaching this target. Management now targets a reported cost-income ratio of around 48% by 2028, even if rates remain at zero.

The Asset Management business is expected to register an underlying cost / income ratio of less than 70% by the end of 2026 with a reported cost / income ratio target of around 65% by 2028.

The Investment Bank is expected to register an underlying return on attributed equity of around 15% through the cycle, while the Non-core and Legacy business is now expected to have more than 95% of its positions closed by the end of 2026, compared with the prior expectation of reducing NCL risk-weighted assets to approximately $2 billion, with underlying operating expenses of around $1.8 billion and an underlying loss before tax of less than $1 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, UBS has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

UBS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.