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This morning, pre-markets are remaining volatile but dancing around a zero balance — both before and after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, which came in as expected. Market indexes remain lower, by -1% (Nasdaq) to -5% (Dow) over the past month of trading.
CPI Remains Steady for February: +0.3%, +2.4%
Ever since the absent CPI report from October of last year (which was due to the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history), this metric on the domestic economy — including the Inflation Rate — has gone from climbing uncomfortably 20 or 30 basis points (bps) per month to dropping 30 bps and holding. It’s taken CPI data from signaling a warning on inflation to among the most placating of data sets that inflation is not a problem at all.
Headline month over month CPI reached +0.3%, as expected, up 10 bps from an unrevised January print. We haven’t seen higher month-over-month CPI inflation since January of 2025. Core CPI, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, was +0.2%, also as expected, down -1 bps from an unrevised prior month. Numbers like these should help economists sleep well at night.
Year over year CPI, aka the Inflation Rate, was in-line with projections at +2.4%, the same as January and 30 bps below December. Leading up to September of last year, we were rising 30 bps every other month. In this very column, we advised at the time that the return of CPI data after the government shutdown may have brought this print as high as +3.3%, but instead we’ve gone the other way since.
Core CPI year over year, at +2.5% for the second-straight month, remains at the lowest level of core inflation since March of 2021. Back in September of the following year, we peaked at +6.6%, back when inflation had begun to spin out into dangerous orbits. So if we want to look at this from the Fed’s perspective, interest rate levels look to have done a very good job of taming inflation, even as the +2% optimal level remains elusive.
Of course, the most important thing to consider with this data is that we’ve now embarked on a new economic reality. No economists believe the daily events with the new war in the Middle East are going to continue fostering steady and pleasant CPI (and PPI) numbers. So we’ll hang our hat on the +2.4% Inflation Rate for now, with the idea that it may be a while before we return here.
NVIDIA’s Latest AI Investment: $2B to Nebius
It may seem like a drop in the bucket in terms of hyperscaler investments — one estimate says AI investments will reach $700 billion overall in the current year — but NVIDIA’s ((NVDA - Free Report) $2 billion strategic partnership allotment to Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure firm Nebius ((NBIS - Free Report) has caused the smaller company to gain +10% in today’s pre-market. NVIDIA shares, as they have year to date, remained flat on the news.
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CPI Increased in Line with Expectations
This morning, pre-markets are remaining volatile but dancing around a zero balance — both before and after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, which came in as expected. Market indexes remain lower, by -1% (Nasdaq) to -5% (Dow) over the past month of trading.
CPI Remains Steady for February: +0.3%, +2.4%
Ever since the absent CPI report from October of last year (which was due to the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history), this metric on the domestic economy — including the Inflation Rate — has gone from climbing uncomfortably 20 or 30 basis points (bps) per month to dropping 30 bps and holding. It’s taken CPI data from signaling a warning on inflation to among the most placating of data sets that inflation is not a problem at all.
Headline month over month CPI reached +0.3%, as expected, up 10 bps from an unrevised January print. We haven’t seen higher month-over-month CPI inflation since January of 2025. Core CPI, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, was +0.2%, also as expected, down -1 bps from an unrevised prior month. Numbers like these should help economists sleep well at night.
Year over year CPI, aka the Inflation Rate, was in-line with projections at +2.4%, the same as January and 30 bps below December. Leading up to September of last year, we were rising 30 bps every other month. In this very column, we advised at the time that the return of CPI data after the government shutdown may have brought this print as high as +3.3%, but instead we’ve gone the other way since.
Core CPI year over year, at +2.5% for the second-straight month, remains at the lowest level of core inflation since March of 2021. Back in September of the following year, we peaked at +6.6%, back when inflation had begun to spin out into dangerous orbits. So if we want to look at this from the Fed’s perspective, interest rate levels look to have done a very good job of taming inflation, even as the +2% optimal level remains elusive.
Of course, the most important thing to consider with this data is that we’ve now embarked on a new economic reality. No economists believe the daily events with the new war in the Middle East are going to continue fostering steady and pleasant CPI (and PPI) numbers. So we’ll hang our hat on the +2.4% Inflation Rate for now, with the idea that it may be a while before we return here.
NVIDIA’s Latest AI Investment: $2B to Nebius
It may seem like a drop in the bucket in terms of hyperscaler investments — one estimate says AI investments will reach $700 billion overall in the current year — but NVIDIA’s ((NVDA - Free Report) $2 billion strategic partnership allotment to Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure firm Nebius ((NBIS - Free Report) has caused the smaller company to gain +10% in today’s pre-market. NVIDIA shares, as they have year to date, remained flat on the news.