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Shell Sees Strong LNG Demand Growth Through 2040 Outlook
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Key Takeaways
Shell sees LNG demand rising 54%-68% by 2040, reinforcing its long-term growth outlook.
Shell says Asia will drive nearly 70% of LNG demand, fueled by industrialization and a coal shift.
Shell reported 11% LNG sales growth in 2025, backed by strong deliveries and project ramp-ups.
Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) has reaffirmed its confidence in the long-term growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG), projecting a significant rise in global demand through 2040 and beyond. The company expects LNG demand to increase between 54% and 68% by 2040 and 45% and 85% by 2050 from 422 million metric tons in 2025, highlighting the fuel company’s expanding role in the global energy mix.
Previously, Shell projected that global LNG demand would reach 630-718 million metric tons annually (mtpa) by 2040. It has now tightened that estimate to 650-710 mtpa by 2040 and introduced a 2050 outlook ranging from 610 to 780 mtpa.
Asia Drives the Next Wave of Demand
A major catalyst behind this growth is Asia’s rising appetite for cleaner energy alternatives. According to Shell, Asia will account for nearly 70% of incremental LNG demand growth through 2040. Rapid industrialization, urbanization and the need to transition away from coal are fueling this surge, making the region central to the LNG outlook.
LNG as a Transition Fuel
Shell continues to position LNG as a critical transition fuel in the shift toward a lower-carbon future. The company emphasizes LNG’s role in stabilizing power grids, particularly in Europe and Asia, where renewable energy integration requires flexible backup solutions. This positioning strengthens LNG’s long-term demand visibility despite the broader push toward decarbonization.
Shell’s LNG business has already shown strong performance, with sales growing 11% in 2025. This growth was supported by record cargo deliveries and the ramp-up of major projects like LNG Canada. Looking ahead, the company aims to grow LNG sales by 4%-5% annually through 2030, reinforcing its leadership in the global LNG market.
Navigating Uncertainty and Market Challenges
Despite its optimistic outlook, Shell acknowledges uncertainties, including geopolitical risks such as tensions involving Iran that could disrupt global energy trade. Additionally, shareholder scrutiny remains a factor, with climate-focused investors questioning how LNG expansion aligns with net-zero ambitions.
Balancing Growth With Climate Commitments
Shell has defended its LNG strategy, arguing that it remains both cost-competitive and relatively lower in emissions compared to other fossil fuels. While global gas consumption may peak in the 2030s in some regions, LNG demand is expected to continue rising, underscoring its importance in the evolving energy landscape.
Shell’s latest projections underscore LNG’s growing importance as a bridge in the global energy transition. With strong demand fundamentals, particularly in Asia, and continued investment in capacity, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this upward trajectory while navigating the complexities of a changing energy market.
SHEL’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
London-based Shell is one of the primary oil supermajors — a group of U.S. and Europe-based big energy multinationals with operations that span almost every corner of the globe. Currently, SHEL has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Archrock started as a broader energy services provider but has steadily refocused its business to become a premier compression services company, primarily supporting natural gas production, processing and transportation. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AROC’s 2026 earnings indicates 5.8% year-over-year growth.
U.K.-based Harbour Energy is an independent oil and gas company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBRIY’s 2026 earnings indicates 287.5% year-over-year growth.
Hamilton-based Nabors Industries is one of the largest land-drilling contractors in the world, conducting oil, gas and geothermal land-drilling operations. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBR’s 2026 earnings indicates 48.6% year-over-year growth.
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Shell Sees Strong LNG Demand Growth Through 2040 Outlook
Key Takeaways
Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) has reaffirmed its confidence in the long-term growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG), projecting a significant rise in global demand through 2040 and beyond. The company expects LNG demand to increase between 54% and 68% by 2040 and 45% and 85% by 2050 from 422 million metric tons in 2025, highlighting the fuel company’s expanding role in the global energy mix.
Previously, Shell projected that global LNG demand would reach 630-718 million metric tons annually (mtpa) by 2040. It has now tightened that estimate to 650-710 mtpa by 2040 and introduced a 2050 outlook ranging from 610 to 780 mtpa.
Asia Drives the Next Wave of Demand
A major catalyst behind this growth is Asia’s rising appetite for cleaner energy alternatives. According to Shell, Asia will account for nearly 70% of incremental LNG demand growth through 2040. Rapid industrialization, urbanization and the need to transition away from coal are fueling this surge, making the region central to the LNG outlook.
LNG as a Transition Fuel
Shell continues to position LNG as a critical transition fuel in the shift toward a lower-carbon future. The company emphasizes LNG’s role in stabilizing power grids, particularly in Europe and Asia, where renewable energy integration requires flexible backup solutions. This positioning strengthens LNG’s long-term demand visibility despite the broader push toward decarbonization.
SHEL’s Strong Operational Momentum Supports Growth
Shell’s LNG business has already shown strong performance, with sales growing 11% in 2025. This growth was supported by record cargo deliveries and the ramp-up of major projects like LNG Canada. Looking ahead, the company aims to grow LNG sales by 4%-5% annually through 2030, reinforcing its leadership in the global LNG market.
Navigating Uncertainty and Market Challenges
Despite its optimistic outlook, Shell acknowledges uncertainties, including geopolitical risks such as tensions involving Iran that could disrupt global energy trade. Additionally, shareholder scrutiny remains a factor, with climate-focused investors questioning how LNG expansion aligns with net-zero ambitions.
Balancing Growth With Climate Commitments
Shell has defended its LNG strategy, arguing that it remains both cost-competitive and relatively lower in emissions compared to other fossil fuels. While global gas consumption may peak in the 2030s in some regions, LNG demand is expected to continue rising, underscoring its importance in the evolving energy landscape.
Shell’s latest projections underscore LNG’s growing importance as a bridge in the global energy transition. With strong demand fundamentals, particularly in Asia, and continued investment in capacity, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this upward trajectory while navigating the complexities of a changing energy market.
SHEL’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
London-based Shell is one of the primary oil supermajors — a group of U.S. and Europe-based big energy multinationals with operations that span almost every corner of the globe. Currently, SHEL has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Investors interested in the energy sector may consider some top-ranked stocks like Archrock, Inc. (AROC - Free Report) , Harbour Energy plc (HBRIY - Free Report) and Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR - Free Report) . While Archrock sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, Harbour Energy and Nabors Industries carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Archrock started as a broader energy services provider but has steadily refocused its business to become a premier compression services company, primarily supporting natural gas production, processing and transportation. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AROC’s 2026 earnings indicates 5.8% year-over-year growth.
U.K.-based Harbour Energy is an independent oil and gas company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBRIY’s 2026 earnings indicates 287.5% year-over-year growth.
Hamilton-based Nabors Industries is one of the largest land-drilling contractors in the world, conducting oil, gas and geothermal land-drilling operations. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBR’s 2026 earnings indicates 48.6% year-over-year growth.