A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Itron (ITRI Quick QuoteITRI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Itron due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Itron’s Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Itron reported non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.46 for fourth-quarter 2025, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.3%. The company reported earnings of $1.35 per share in the prior-year quarter. The uptick reflected higher non-GAAP operating income, along with a tax benefit in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Itron reported quarterly revenues of $572 million, which declined 7% year over year but exceeded the upper end of guidance ($555-$565 million). The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $561.8 million. The revenue decline was largely due to portfolio optimization efforts, lower legacy electricity product sales in EMEA, timing of North American project deployments and weaker Networked Solutions activity.

Full-year revenues came in at $2.4 billion, down 3%.

During the quarter, to strengthen its utility-resiliency strategy, Itron acquired Urbint, which provides AI-driven solutions for emergency preparedness, damage prevention and worker safety, and Locusview, whose digital construction platform streamlines projects from planning through close-out by capturing as-built infrastructure in the field. With both deals now completed, the company has launched a new Resiliency Solutions reporting segment. This expansion broadens Itron’s capabilities across the full asset life cycle, from planning and grid build-out to operations, maintenance and protection, while bringing the new teams into its ecosystem.

For 2026, Itron expects the new Resiliency Solutions segment to contribute about $65–$70 million in revenues with roughly 70% gross margins. The acquisitions should immediately boost revenue growth, margins and EBITDA but will dilute 2026 EPS due to lower interest income after the $850 million outlay. EPS accretion is anticipated by the end of 2027.

Product revenues were $474.3 million (83% of total revenues), down 10.9% year over year. Service revenues totaled $97.3 million (17%), up 21%.

Itron’s bookings were $737 million, contributing to full-year bookings of $2.1 billion, and its backlog amounted to $4.5 billion at the end of the reported quarter. Sustained demand for Grid Edge Intelligence pushed Itron’s Outcomes segment backlog to a record high. Fourth-quarter bookings were fueled by multiple Grid Edge solutions aimed at modernizing the grid and improving infrastructure reliability, including a new multiyear, multi-application expansion of its long-standing partnership with Exelon.

Segments in Detail

Device Solutions (18.3% of total revenues): Revenues fell 3% (7% in constant currency or cc) to $104.8 million due to lower legacy electricity product sales and project timing. This segment continues to be influenced by portfolio rationalization.

Networked Solutions (61.6%): Revenues dipped 15% to $352 million, primarily due to scheduling or timing of project implementations.

Outcomes (19.6%): Revenues rose 23% (or 22% in cc) to $111.8 million, driven by growth in recurring revenues, increased delivery services and recurring revenue expansion.

Resiliency Solutions (0.5%):Revenues of $3 million reflected partial-quarter contribution from the Urbint acquisition, which closed on Nov. 3, 2025. Starting with the first-quarter 2026 report, the combined results of Locusview and Urbint will be included in this segment.

Operating Details

Itron’s gross margin for the quarter rose significantly to 40.7%, a 580-basis point improvement year over year. This increase was attributed to a favorable product and customer mix.

Non-GAAP operating expenses remained almost flat at $142 million.

Non-GAAP operating income was $90.6 million compared with $70.6 million in the year-ago quarter. The upside was driven by higher gross profit. Non-GAAP operating margins expanded 440 bps to 15.9%.

Adjusted EBITDA jumped 21% year over year to $98.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA margins gained 400 bps to 17.3%.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flows

As of Dec. 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled 1.02 billion compared with $1.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025. The sequential downside stemmed mainly from the $325 million Urbint acquisition and $100 million in share buybacks, partly offset by free cash flow strength.

As of Dec. 31, net long-term debt was $788.8 million, the same as of Sept. 30, 2024.

Itron generated $119 million of cash from operations in the reported quarter compared with $80 million in the prior-year quarter.

In the fourth quarter, the free cash flow reached $112 million, up from $70 million in the previous year's quarter. Improved working capital management and higher earnings fueled this performance.

Financial Guidance

For the first quarter of 2026, Itron expects revenues to be between $565 million and $575 million, suggesting a decline of 6% year over year at the midpoint.

Non-GAAP EPS is anticipated to be in the range of $1.20-$1.30, implying a decline of 18% year over year at the midpoint. The decline in interest income tied to the acquisitions is expected to trim about 13 cents per share from first-quarter 2026 EPS.

For 2026, management projects revenues to be between $2.35 billion and $2.45 billion, suggesting an increase of 1% year over year at the midpoint.

Non-GAAP EPS is estimated in the $5.75-$6.25 band, implying a decline of 16% year over year at the midpoint. The decline in interest income tied to the acquisitions is expected to trim about 38 cents per share from 2026 EPS.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -8.65% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Itron has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Itron has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.