Both ImmunityBio (IBRX Quick QuoteIBRX - Free Report) and Moderna (MRNA Quick QuoteMRNA - Free Report) are biotech firms that depend largely on the successful commercialization of a single key drug while working to broaden their pipelines for future growth.

While ImmunityBio is engaged in developing immunotherapies for cancer, Moderna focuses on mRNA-based therapies targeting multiple indications, including respiratory diseases and cancer.

But which one makes for a better investment pick today? Let's examine the fundamentals of the two stocks to make a prudent choice.

The Case for IBRX

This California-based company has only one marketed drug in its portfolio, called Anktiva. The drug is approved by the FDA in combination with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (“BCG”) for treating adult patients with BCG-unresponsive, non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (“NMIBC”) with carcinoma in situ (CIS), with or without papillary tumors. It is approved for a similar indication in Europe, China and Saudi Arabia.

IBRX reported net product revenues of $113 million in 2025, up around 700% year over year. Per the company, repeat prescribing has been a major driver of sales growth, suggesting increased confidence among physicians in the drug’s efficacy and safety profile. We expect this momentum to continue in future quarters. Another factor supporting demand is the ongoing BCG shortage, which has created treatment bottlenecks in bladder cancer care. Since Anktiva is used in combination with BCG, physicians are increasingly prioritizing high-value treatment regimens for eligible patients.

ImmunityBio is pursuing additional label expansion opportunities for Anktiva. It recently resubmitted a supplemental regulatory filing with the FDA seeking label expansion for the combination of Anktiva and BCG in BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with papillary disease. IBRX is advancing a randomized study evaluating Anktiva plus BCG in BCG-naïve NMIBC patients — a significantly larger population than the currently approved setting. It is targeting a potential regulatory filing for the drug, supported by this study, later this year.

Beyond bladder cancer, ImmunityBio is exploring Anktiva in combination with standard-of-care therapies and CAR-NK approaches across several difficult-to-treat cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), pancreatic cancer, glioblastoma, colorectal cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma. In January, the therapy received its first regulatory approval in the NSCLC indication in Saudi Arabia. The company intends to hold discussions with the FDA later this year, seeking label expansion for the drug in a similar indication.

The company’s sole dependence on just one marketed drug poses a concern. Even its broader pipeline is primarily centered around Anktiva, increasing execution risk.

IBRX recently faced regulatory scrutiny after the FDA issued a warning letter over misleading promotional claims related to Anktiva. The agency flagged that certain marketing communications overstated the drug’s efficacy and omitted key risk information, raising compliance concerns. This development was responsible for the substantial drop in stock price earlier this week. Such developments could weigh on investor sentiment and highlight the regulatory risks associated with aggressive commercialization strategies.

The Case for MRNA

While ImmunityBio is in the early stages of commercializing Anktiva, Moderna is repositioning itself after the windfall from its COVID-19 vaccine, focusing on sustaining growth through its broader pipeline.

During the pandemic, Moderna gave the world one of the first and most widely used COVID-19 vaccines. These sales turned it from a loss-making, clinical-stage company into one of the most profitable commercial-stage biotech companies in the healthcare sector. The resulting cash boost has enabled MRNA to invest across a broad range of pipeline candidates targeting multiple indications. The company currently has more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates, many of which are in clinical development.

Moderna plans to launch at least three (up to six) new marketed products by 2028. With these potential launches, it aims to not only boost its revenues but reduce dependence on COVID-19 vaccines, which have been experiencing a significant decline due to lower demand following the end of the pandemic. Upcoming launches include an influenza vaccine, a COVID/flu combination vaccine, a personalized cancer therapy and a norovirus vaccine.

The personalized cancer therapy, called intismeran autogene, is a major candidate in the company’s pipeline, which is being co-developed with Merck (MRK Quick QuoteMRK - Free Report) . The companies are already evaluating this therapy in three pivotal phase III studies — one in the melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) area. An update on the melanoma study is expected later this year. Moderna and Merck are evaluating the therapy across various mid-stage studies for other cancer indications, including high-risk bladder cancers, first-line metastatic melanoma, adjuvant renal cell carcinoma and first-line metastatic squamous NSCLC. A commercial launch for this cancer therapy is targeted for 2027.

Moderna faces increasing competitive pressure from large pharma players, which has weighed on the commercial performance. Its RSV vaccine, mResvia, has struggled to gain traction against established competitors like GSK and Pfizer, partly due to their stronger market presence and distribution capabilities. As a result, the company remains heavily reliant on its COVID-19 vaccines, which continue to be its primary source of revenue despite declining demand in the post-pandemic environment. This dependence exposes Moderna to continued top-line pressure.

Pipeline setbacks pose a concern for the stock. The recent failure of the company’s experimental CMV vaccine in late-stage development highlights the inherent risks in its pipeline. It raises questions around execution, particularly as the company aims to transition to a more diversified product portfolio.

How Do Estimates Compare for IBRX & MRNA?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ImmunityBio’s 2026 sales suggests 77% year-over-year growth, while the company’s loss per share is expected to narrow by more than 18%.

Movements in IBRX’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been mixed in the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For Moderna, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales suggests 7% year-over-year growth, while EPS is expected to improve by more than 6%.

MRNA’s bottom-line estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been mixed over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price Performance and Valuation of IBRX & MRNA

Year to date, shares of ImmunityBio have skyrocketed 273%, while those of Moderna have surged nearly 82%. In comparison, the industry has climbed nearly 2%, as seen in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, IBRX is trading at a premium compared to MRNA, going by the price/sales (P/S) ratio. ImmunityBio’s shares currently trade at 29.67 times forward 12-month sales, higher than 9.40 for Moderna.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

IBRX or MRNA: Which Is a Better Pick?

Both stocks have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which makes choosing one over the other difficult. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Though both ImmunityBio and Moderna have demonstrated strong growth potential, Moderna seems to be the safer pick at present. The company’s efforts to diversify beyond its COVID-19 vaccine, supported by multiple upcoming product launches and ongoing cost-saving initiatives, provide better long-term visibility. While challenges remain, its broader pipeline and financial flexibility offer a more balanced risk-reward profile.

Meanwhile, ImmunityBio’s heavy reliance on a single marketed drug, Anktiva, for both its current revenues and broader pipeline remains a key concern and increases execution risk.