It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF Quick QuoteAMSF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

AMSF Misses on Q4 Earnings Despite Rising Premiums, Hikes Dividend

AMERISAFE reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 51 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.5%. The bottom line declined 23.9% year over year.

Operating revenues increased 9.8% year over year to $80.75 million and exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.6%.

Quarterly earnings were affected by elevated expenses, rate declines and higher-than-expected loss severity. The downside was partially offset by higher net premiums earned, driven by solid retention and new business growth, as well as modest improvement in investment income.

Full-Year 2025 Performance of AMSF

Operating earnings of $2.19 per share decreased 13.4% year over year. Operating revenues increased 3.5% year over year to $310.5 million, while total expenses rose 7.7% to $258.4 million.

Net income declined 15% year over year to $47.1 million. Pre-tax underwriting profit fell 19.5% year over year to $24.6 million.

AMSF’s Q4 Performance

Net premiums earned of $73.6 million advanced 10.7% year over year. The metric toped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.2%. Net investment income rose 2.5% year over year to $7.1 million, driven by a higher overall book yield and lower expenses. The reported figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.2%. Fee and other income fell 14.5% year over year.

Total expenses escalated 20.3% year over year to $68.9 million due to higher loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, and underwriting and other operating costs.

AMERISAFE’s pre-tax underwriting profit amounted to $4.7 million, which fell 49.2% year over year. Operating net income of $9.8 million declined 23.7% year over year in the reported quarter.

The net combined ratio deteriorated 750 basis points year over year to 93.6. The Zacks Consensus Estimates was pegged at 90.8.

Financial Update (as of Dec. 31, 2025)

AMERISAFE exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $61.9 million, up from $44 million at 2024-end. Total assets declined to $1.13 billion from $1.16 billion at the end of 2024.

Shareholders’ equity decreased to $251.6 million from $257.3 million a year ago.

Book value per share was $13.39, down 0.9% year over year. Return on average equity fell 270 basis points year over year to 15.8%.

Capital Deployment Update

AMERISAFE repurchased common shares worth $8 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year, the company bought back shares worth $12.1 million. As of Dec. 31, 2025, it had $16.9 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization.

Management also declared a quarterly cash dividend of 41 cents per share, representing a 5.1% increase from the year-ago level. The dividend will be paid on March 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 13.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

Currently, Amerisafe has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.