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CF Stock Rallies 59% in 3 Months: What Should Investors Do Now?
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Key Takeaways
CF has jumped 59% in three months, driven by strong nitrogen demand and higher prices boosting earnings.
CF Industries benefits from rising global demand and strong urea imports from Brazil and India.
CF faces margin pressure from higher natural gas costs despite strong cash flow and shareholder returns.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF - Free Report) shares have rallied 59.4% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s growth of 23.9% and the S&P 500’s decline of 5.7%. The upside has been driven by its forecast-topping earnings performance, buoyed by healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices.
CF’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) and The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) , have gained 20% and 6.7%, respectively, over the same period.
CF’s 3-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Technical indicators for CF show bullish momentum. The CF stock has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since Jan. 8, 2026. It is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on Feb. 26, 2026, indicating a bullish trend.
CF Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at CF’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF Stock
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered.
Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. Brazil and India are expected to remain the largest importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic requirements.
CF, on its fourth-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen outlook remains positive for the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories will stay below historical averages.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the fourth quarter, net sales rose roughly 23% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion. The average selling prices for most of the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF’s Solid Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the fourth quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of the quarter. The company completed a $1 billion senior notes offering during the fourth quarter to boost its financial flexibility and to refinance $750 million in debt due in December 2026.
CF Industries repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter, and bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.
CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.5% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 21%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 13.8%. Backed by sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Higher Gas Costs Weigh on CF’s Margins
CF faces headwinds from higher natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. It saw a notable rise in natural gas costs during 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $3.20 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in the fourth quarter from $2.43 per MMBtu a year ago. The same for 2025 increased to $3.31 per MMBtu from $2.40 per MMBtu in the year-ago period, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins.
Positive Analyst Sentiment for CF Stock
Earnings estimates for CF Industries have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look At CF Stock’s Valuation
CF is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 15.65X, a modest 1.4% discount relative to the industry average of 15.87X. It is trading at a premium to Nutrien and Mosaic. CF and Nutrien currently have a Value Score of B, while Mosaic carries a Value Score of A.
CF’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & MOS
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold CF Stock for Now
CF has rallied on strong nitrogen demand and higher pricing, driving earnings beats and upward estimate revisions. Robust cash flow supports aggressive buybacks and a healthy dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns. Technical momentum also remains firmly bullish. Favorable farm economics, strong import demand from Brazil and India and disciplined capital allocation underpin earnings visibility. However, higher natural gas costs pose margin pressure, and fertilizer markets remain inherently cyclical. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
CF Stock Rallies 59% in 3 Months: What Should Investors Do Now?
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (CF - Free Report) shares have rallied 59.4% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s growth of 23.9% and the S&P 500’s decline of 5.7%. The upside has been driven by its forecast-topping earnings performance, buoyed by healthy nitrogen fertilizer demand in major markets and higher nitrogen prices.
CF’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) and The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) , have gained 20% and 6.7%, respectively, over the same period.
CF’s 3-month Price Performance
Technical indicators for CF show bullish momentum. The CF stock has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since Jan. 8, 2026. It is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is also reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on Feb. 26, 2026, indicating a bullish trend.
CF Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at CF’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Higher Prices Aid CF Stock
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered.
Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. Brazil and India are expected to remain the largest importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic requirements.
CF, on its fourth-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen outlook remains positive for the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories will stay below historical averages.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the fourth quarter, net sales rose roughly 23% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion. The average selling prices for most of the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF’s Solid Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the fourth quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of the quarter. The company completed a $1 billion senior notes offering during the fourth quarter to boost its financial flexibility and to refinance $750 million in debt due in December 2026.
CF Industries repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter, and bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.
CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 1.5% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 21%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 13.8%. Backed by sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Higher Gas Costs Weigh on CF’s Margins
CF faces headwinds from higher natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. It saw a notable rise in natural gas costs during 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $3.20 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in the fourth quarter from $2.43 per MMBtu a year ago. The same for 2025 increased to $3.31 per MMBtu from $2.40 per MMBtu in the year-ago period, leading to a higher cost of sales. Natural gas prices shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins.
Positive Analyst Sentiment for CF Stock
Earnings estimates for CF Industries have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward over the same time frame.
A Look At CF Stock’s Valuation
CF is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 15.65X, a modest 1.4% discount relative to the industry average of 15.87X. It is trading at a premium to Nutrien and Mosaic. CF and Nutrien currently have a Value Score of B, while Mosaic carries a Value Score of A.
CF’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & MOS
Final Thoughts: Hold CF Stock for Now
CF has rallied on strong nitrogen demand and higher pricing, driving earnings beats and upward estimate revisions. Robust cash flow supports aggressive buybacks and a healthy dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns. Technical momentum also remains firmly bullish. Favorable farm economics, strong import demand from Brazil and India and disciplined capital allocation underpin earnings visibility. However, higher natural gas costs pose margin pressure, and fertilizer markets remain inherently cyclical. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.