Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider EOG Resources?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. EOG Resources (EOG Quick QuoteEOG - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.96 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 5, 2026.

By taking the percentage difference between the $2.96 Most Accurate Estimate and the $2.81 Zacks Consensus Estimate, EOG Resources has an Earnings ESP of +5.20%. Investors should also know that EOG is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

EOG is part of a big group of Oils and Energy stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at SM Energy (SM Quick QuoteSM - Free Report) as well.

Slated to report earnings on May 7, 2026, SM Energy holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $1.18 a share 31 days from its next quarterly update.

SM Energy's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +25.53% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.94.

EOG and SM's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>