Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Occidental Petroleum?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Occidental Petroleum (OXY Quick QuoteOXY - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.83 a share, just 29 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 5, 2026.

By taking the percentage difference between the $0.83 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.65 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Occidental Petroleum has an Earnings ESP of +28.56%. Investors should also know that OXY is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

OXY is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ Quick QuoteCNQ - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on May 14, 2026, Canadian Natural Resources holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $0.79 a share 38 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Canadian Natural Resources is $0.59, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +34.66%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, OXY and CNQ could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>