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CF's Cash Flow Strength: Can It Fuel More Growth and Returns?
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Key Takeaways
CF delivered $2.75B operating cash flow and $1.79B free cash flow in 2025, both up strongly YoY.
CF returned $1.7B to shareholders in 2025 and logged a 62% free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate.
CF expects continued strong cash flow from high margins and favorable nitrogen industry dynamics.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) generated solid cash flows in the fourth quarter of 2025, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the quarter, up roughly 28% year over year. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively.
CF’s substantial cash flows and strong balance sheet enable it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. CF is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages.
The company expects to continue generating significant free cash flow, leveraging its high-margin business, strategic execution and favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics, allowing it to invest in growth opportunities and enhance returns to its shareholders.
Among its peers, The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) generated an operating cash flow of $825 million in 2025, down roughly 36% year over year. Mosaic’s operating cash flow was hurt by inventory builds in both finished products and raw materials. In addition to significantly reducing cash flow, the increase in working capital also led to an $829 million rise in net debt. Mosaic sees cash flow remaining constrained by lower EBITDA in the near term.
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) generated solid cash flows in the fourth quarter, aided by favorable fertilizer market fundamentals. Cash provided in operating activities was $2.98 billion in the fourth quarter. Nutrien generated an operating cash flow of $4 billion for full-year 2025. NTR’s actions to drive volumes, strong retail earnings and measures to optimize portfolio contributed to strong cash flow generation in 2025.
CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CF Industries has rallied 91.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 48.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 16.08, a 1.6% premium relative to the industry average of 15.83X. It carries a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 6.7% and 25.7%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
CF's Cash Flow Strength: Can It Fuel More Growth and Returns?
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) generated solid cash flows in the fourth quarter of 2025, thanks to strong operational performance, strategic execution and supportive nitrogen industry fundamentals. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the quarter, up roughly 28% year over year. For full-year 2025, net cash from operating activities was $2.75 billion, while free cash flow was $1.79 billion, up roughly 21% and 24% year over year, respectively.
CF’s substantial cash flows and strong balance sheet enable it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. CF is efficiently converting adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Its full-year 2025 free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate was 62%, outpacing sector averages.
The company expects to continue generating significant free cash flow, leveraging its high-margin business, strategic execution and favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics, allowing it to invest in growth opportunities and enhance returns to its shareholders.
Among its peers, The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) generated an operating cash flow of $825 million in 2025, down roughly 36% year over year. Mosaic’s operating cash flow was hurt by inventory builds in both finished products and raw materials. In addition to significantly reducing cash flow, the increase in working capital also led to an $829 million rise in net debt. Mosaic sees cash flow remaining constrained by lower EBITDA in the near term.
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) generated solid cash flows in the fourth quarter, aided by favorable fertilizer market fundamentals. Cash provided in operating activities was $2.98 billion in the fourth quarter. Nutrien generated an operating cash flow of $4 billion for full-year 2025. NTR’s actions to drive volumes, strong retail earnings and measures to optimize portfolio contributed to strong cash flow generation in 2025.
CF’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CF Industries has rallied 91.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 48.9%.
From a valuation standpoint, CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 16.08, a 1.6% premium relative to the industry average of 15.83X. It carries a Value Score of B.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 6.7% and 25.7%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
CF stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.