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Fuel for a Recovery: Oil Relief & Robust Fundamentals
Early Monday, stock futures rose amid chatter on Wall Street about a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Although such chatter has been hard to trust recently, oil data, fundamentals, and market internals point to a market that is poised to rally:
Oil Relief on the Horizon
Crude Oil & Equities Finally Decouple
Since the launch of "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28th, oil and equities have experienced an extreme negative correlation. For instance, when crude oil prices spiked by more than 10% on March 6th, the Nasdaq plunged by ~1.5%. Similarly, on March 12th, crude oil jumped ~10%, and the Nasdaq dumped ~1.7%.
Although the negative correlation has been strong throughout the war, savvy investors understand the importance of monitoring changes to the correlation because, eventually, correlations become too obvious to the masses and begin to get priced in. Thursday, oil and equities finally decoupled dramatically. Crude oil bolted more than 11%. That said, this time, instead of falling, the Nasdaq finished the trading session slightly green.
Oil Supply Relief & Strait of Hormuz Progress
Over the holiday-extended weekend, positive signs of oil supply relief emerged. OPEC+ released a statement saying, "As part of our commitment to supporting the stability of the oil market, 8 countries have decided to increase production by 206 thousand barrels daily." With increased supply, the market will likely shift from discounting scarcity to expecting a balanced supply.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the largest chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, shows signs of progress. Over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz saw the largest flows of vessels passing through it since March 1st.
Fundamental Strength
Earnings Expectations Strong Despite the War
According to FactSet data, 59 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance for Q1 2026, the highest total in five years.
Earnings season will kick off mid-month, with earnings from banking giants such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley.
Tech Valuations are Extremely Attractive
One benefit of the recent correction in tech stocks is that they are now far more attractive on valuation grounds. For instance, NVDIA, the AI leader, has its lowest price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio in more than a decade.
In other words, with growth still accelerating, tech stocks are becoming extremely attractive from a growth AND valuation perspective.
Sentiment Reaches Extremes
Breadth Washout?
The S&P 500 Index may have just witnessed a breadth washout. Market breadth (the # of stocks rising) recently reached a 50-day low. However, 70% of NYSE issues rose in 3 out of 4 sessions, signaling renewed strength. Historically, when 50-day breadth lows were followed by 70% advancers in ¾ days, S&P 500 returns have been very strong. In such instances, the S&P 500 has gained 6.8% on average over the next three months. (Research via Seth Golden @SethCL).
Bottom Line
While geopolitical "chatter" is often met with skepticism, the hard data underlying the market paints an increasingly optimistic picture. Between the stabilization of critical trade routes and the highest positive earnings guidance in five years, the market's internals are bullish.
Free: Instant Access to Zacks' Market-Crushing Strategies
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and NVDIA
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – April 7, 2026 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Free Report) , Citigroup (C - Free Report) , Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) and NVDIA (NVDA - Free Report) .
Fuel for a Recovery: Oil Relief & Robust Fundamentals
Early Monday, stock futures rose amid chatter on Wall Street about a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Although such chatter has been hard to trust recently, oil data, fundamentals, and market internals point to a market that is poised to rally:
Oil Relief on the Horizon
Crude Oil & Equities Finally Decouple
Since the launch of "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28th, oil and equities have experienced an extreme negative correlation. For instance, when crude oil prices spiked by more than 10% on March 6th, the Nasdaq plunged by ~1.5%. Similarly, on March 12th, crude oil jumped ~10%, and the Nasdaq dumped ~1.7%.
Although the negative correlation has been strong throughout the war, savvy investors understand the importance of monitoring changes to the correlation because, eventually, correlations become too obvious to the masses and begin to get priced in. Thursday, oil and equities finally decoupled dramatically. Crude oil bolted more than 11%. That said, this time, instead of falling, the Nasdaq finished the trading session slightly green.
Oil Supply Relief & Strait of Hormuz Progress
Over the holiday-extended weekend, positive signs of oil supply relief emerged. OPEC+ released a statement saying, "As part of our commitment to supporting the stability of the oil market, 8 countries have decided to increase production by 206 thousand barrels daily." With increased supply, the market will likely shift from discounting scarcity to expecting a balanced supply.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the largest chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, shows signs of progress. Over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz saw the largest flows of vessels passing through it since March 1st.
Fundamental Strength
Earnings Expectations Strong Despite the War
According to FactSet data, 59 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance for Q1 2026, the highest total in five years.
Earnings season will kick off mid-month, with earnings from banking giants such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley.
Tech Valuations are Extremely Attractive
One benefit of the recent correction in tech stocks is that they are now far more attractive on valuation grounds. For instance, NVDIA, the AI leader, has its lowest price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio in more than a decade.
In other words, with growth still accelerating, tech stocks are becoming extremely attractive from a growth AND valuation perspective.
Sentiment Reaches Extremes
Breadth Washout?
The S&P 500 Index may have just witnessed a breadth washout. Market breadth (the # of stocks rising) recently reached a 50-day low. However, 70% of NYSE issues rose in 3 out of 4 sessions, signaling renewed strength. Historically, when 50-day breadth lows were followed by 70% advancers in ¾ days, S&P 500 returns have been very strong. In such instances, the S&P 500 has gained 6.8% on average over the next three months. (Research via Seth Golden @SethCL).
Bottom Line
While geopolitical "chatter" is often met with skepticism, the hard data underlying the market paints an increasingly optimistic picture. Between the stabilization of critical trade routes and the highest positive earnings guidance in five years, the market's internals are bullish.
Free: Instant Access to Zacks' Market-Crushing Strategies
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached.
Get all the details here >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.