Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider CME Group?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. CME Group (CME Quick QuoteCME - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) 14 days from its next quarterly earnings release on April 22, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $3.37 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the $3.37 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.13 Zacks Consensus Estimate, CME Group has an Earnings ESP of +7.63%. Investors should also know that CME is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

CME is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Allstate (ALL Quick QuoteALL - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Slated to report earnings on April 29, 2026, Allstate holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $8.23 a share 21 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate is $7.80, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +5.54%.

CME and ALL's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>