It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Casey's General Stores (CASY Quick QuoteCASY - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Casey's due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Casey's General Stores, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

CASY Q3 Earnings Beat, Inside Sales Rise Y/Y, FY26 Outlook Raised

Casey's reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein the top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the bottom line beat the same. Both metrics increased year over year.

The company delivered a strong fiscal third quarter, highlighted by solid sales growth and margin expansion. The company’s high-quality inside offerings, combined with a compelling value proposition, continue to attract guests to its stores. On the fuel side, the company delivered a solid quarter, expanding fuel margins while achieving positive same-store gallon growth. As a result, Casey's updated its fiscal 2026 outlook.

CASY, one of the leading convenience store chains in the United States, posted quarterly earnings of $3.49 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.01. This represents a 49.8% increase from $2.33 in the prior-year quarter. 

The company reported total revenues of $3,916.1 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,023 million. However, the metric increased 0.3% from $3,903.6 million in the year-ago period.

Total inside sales jumped 5.7% year over year to $1.48 billion in the quarter. Inside same-store sales increased 4% compared with a 3.7% rise in the year-ago period. Same-store sales in prepared food and dispensed beverages were driven by strong performance in whole pizzas and hot sandwiches, while grocery and general merchandise same-store sales were supported by solid growth in non-alcoholic beverages.

Insight Into CASY’s Margins & Expenses Performance

Gross profit rose 10.3% year over year to $1.01 billion. The gross margin expanded 230 basis points to 25.7%.

The total inside gross profit increased 8.9% year over year to $624 million. Meanwhile, the inside margin was 42.2%, up about 130 basis points from the prior-year period, benefiting from effective cost of goods management and a favorable shift in product mix.

EBITDA increased 27.5% year over year to $308.9 million in the quarter under discussion, driven by higher inside and fuel gross profit. This was partially offset by increased operating expenses. The EBITDA margin also expanded 170 basis points (bps) year over year to 7.9%.

The company witnessed a rise of 4.1% in operating expenses to $697.6 million. The year-over-year comparison in total operating expenses benefited from $13 million in one-time transaction and integration costs incurred in the previous year related to the Fikes acquisition. The addition of 31 stores compared with the prior year contributed approximately 1% to the increase. 

Same-store employee expenses accounted for 1.5% of the rise, driven by higher labor rates, partially offset by lower same-store labor hours. Unfavorable weather conditions led to higher snow removal costs, contributing roughly 1% to the increase. Additionally, 1.5% of the change was attributable to higher accrued costs for variable incentive compensation and charitable contributions.

Decoding CASY’s Segmental Performance

Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage sales rose 6.5% year over year to $423 million, slightly lagging our estimate of $423.4 million. Same-store sales increased 4.3% compared with 4.7% in the year-ago quarter. The Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage margin increased 50 bps to 58.3% from 57.8% in the prior-year period.

Grocery & General Merchandise sales increased 5.4% to $1.06 billion in the quarter. Same-store sales advanced 4% compared with 3.3% in the year-ago quarter. The Grocery & General Merchandise margin expanded 150 bps to 35.7% from 34.2% in the prior-year period.

We note that Fuel sales decreased 2.4% year over year to $2.31 billion in the quarter. Fuel gallons sold jumped 2.3% to 848.4 million, driven by both an increase in store count and growth in same-store gallons sold. Total fuel gross profit rose 15.3% year over year, supported by higher fuel volumes and improved fuel margins.

The company also sold $6.3 million in renewable fuel credits in the fiscal third quarter, representing an increase of $3.7 million from the same quarter in the prior year. The fuel margin improved to 41 cents per gallon from 36.4 cents in the prior-year period.

CASY’s Financial Snapshot: Cash, Debt & Equity Overview

Casey's, which operated 2,924 stores as of Jan. 31, 2026, ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $465 million, long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities) of $2.33 billion, and shareholders’ equity of $3.85 billion.

In the quarter, the company repurchased approximately $76 million of shares and has around $157 million available under its existing share repurchase authorization.

In March 2026, management declared a quarterly dividend of 57 cents per share, payable May 15, 2026, to its shareholders of record as of May 1. This continues the company’s long-standing track record of dividend payments.

Sneak Peek Into CASY’s Outlook

For fiscal 2026, management expects EBITDA growth of 18-20% as compared with the previously mentioned 15-17%. Notably, the company reported 13.3% in fiscal 2025. It anticipates total operating expenses to increase 10% as compared with the 8-10% increase stated earlier. The purchase of property and equipment is expected to be $600 million.

Casey's expects inside same-store sales to increase 3.5-4.5% compared with the prior mentioned 3-4% rise. The Inside margin is expected to be 41.5-42.5% compared with the prior stated 41-42%. The Inside margin was 41.5% in fiscal 2025. Management foresees same-store fuel gallons sold between negative 1% and positive 1%. 

The company anticipates opening 80 stores in fiscal 2026, through a mix of M&A and store construction, bringing the three-year total to 500 stores.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Casey's has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Casey's has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.