Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Palomar?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Palomar (PLMR Quick QuotePLMR - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) 21 days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 4, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.18 a share.

PLMR has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.61%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.18 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17. Palomar is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

PLMR is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Blackstone Inc. (BX Quick QuoteBX - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Slated to report earnings on April 23, 2026, Blackstone Inc. holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $1.36 a share 10 days from its next quarterly update.

Blackstone Inc.'s Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.45% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35.

PLMR and BX's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>