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Newmont Shares Pop 21% YTD: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Newmont shares are up 21.1% year to date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500.
NEM is expanding production with projects like Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2.
Higher costs and lower 2026 production may weigh on Newmont's profitability.
Newmont Corporation's (NEM - Free Report) shares have gained 21.1% so far this year, fueled by gold prices climbing to record highs. The rally has also been supported by the company’s solid earnings, underpinned by operational efficiency, higher realized prices and the resilience of its asset portfolio.
NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 17.5% gain and the S&P 500’s decline of 0.7%. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares have traded flat over the same period, while Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have gained 29.1% and 19.9%, respectively.
NEM’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The NEM stock has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, suggesting a long-term uptrend. It broke above its 50-day SMA on April 8, 2026, on an uptick in gold prices following the announcement of a pause in the Iran war. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Key Projects & Asset Streamlining to Aid NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
In October 2025, NEM achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Output is expected to be 315,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. NEM completed its non-core divestiture program in April 2025, with the sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and its Porcupine operation in Canada. NEM has executed agreements to sell its shares in Greatland Resources Limited and Discovery Silver Corp, for total cash proceeds of around $470 million after taxes and commissions.
The company generated $3.6 billion from its portfolio optimization actions in 2025. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Solid Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of 2025, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $11.6 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $7.6 billion. Its free cash flow nearly doubled year over year to a record $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter and surged two-and-a-half-fold year over year to a record $7.3 billion, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities shot up 44% from the prior-year quarter to $3.6 billion, and surged 62% to $10.3 billion in 2025.
NEM has distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025, resulting in a strong net cash position of $2.1 billion. NEM announced an increased dividend of 26 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025. Newmont has executed $3.6 billion from $6 billion of buyback authorization as of Feb. 19, 2026.
NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 14% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Favorable Gold Prices Bode Well for NEM Stock
Newmont stands to benefit from elevated gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Gold entered 2026 with a stronger momentum. U.S.-Iran tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve fueled the spike in bullion to record levels, with prices soaring to a fresh high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar.
Bullion strengthened again, surging past $5,400 per ounce on March 2, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Gold prices have since retreated from those levels amid a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation fears tied to a spike in oil prices. The Fed’s hawkish tone further weighed on gold prices. These factors dragged bullion to below $4,500 per ounce in late March.
Gold prices have been volatile lately, swinging between gains and losses as President Donald Trump’s shifting rhetoric on the Iran war unsettled markets. Gold surged to near $4,800 per ounce last week after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to oil prices crashing and easing inflation worries. The U.S. dollar also hit a four-week low following the announcement. While bullion prices have eased somewhat again on inflation concerns following failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, they remain supportive at around $4,700 per ounce.
NEM saw lower gold production for the fourth quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 24% year-over-year decline in gold production to 1.45 million ounces, although increasing modestly from the prior quarter. The company also reported a roughly 14% year-over-year decline in gold production in 2025, reaching 5.89 million ounces.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is also expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Moving Higher
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $8.96, suggesting year-over-year growth of 30%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 72.8% in the first quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 13.14X, a 3.3% premium to the industry’s average of 12.72X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont, Barrick and Kinross Gold currently have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont is well-placed for growth with the strong performance of its assets and a robust portfolio of projects, which should expand production capacity and extend mine life, thereby driving revenues and profits. The asset streamlining rooted in Newmont’s objective to concentrate capital on high-return, long-life assets also underpins its long-term sustainability. Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. Favorable bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, weaker production due to divestments and lower grades, along with higher costs, may weigh on its performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Newmont Shares Pop 21% YTD: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Newmont Corporation's (NEM - Free Report) shares have gained 21.1% so far this year, fueled by gold prices climbing to record highs. The rally has also been supported by the company’s solid earnings, underpinned by operational efficiency, higher realized prices and the resilience of its asset portfolio.
NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 17.5% gain and the S&P 500’s decline of 0.7%. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares have traded flat over the same period, while Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have gained 29.1% and 19.9%, respectively.
NEM’s YTD Price Performance
The NEM stock has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 9, 2025, suggesting a long-term uptrend. It broke above its 50-day SMA on April 8, 2026, on an uptick in gold prices following the announcement of a pause in the Iran war. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Key Projects & Asset Streamlining to Aid NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
In October 2025, NEM achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Output is expected to be 315,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. NEM completed its non-core divestiture program in April 2025, with the sale of its Akyem operation in Ghana and its Porcupine operation in Canada. NEM has executed agreements to sell its shares in Greatland Resources Limited and Discovery Silver Corp, for total cash proceeds of around $470 million after taxes and commissions.
The company generated $3.6 billion from its portfolio optimization actions in 2025. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Solid Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of 2025, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $11.6 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $7.6 billion. Its free cash flow nearly doubled year over year to a record $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter and surged two-and-a-half-fold year over year to a record $7.3 billion, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities shot up 44% from the prior-year quarter to $3.6 billion, and surged 62% to $10.3 billion in 2025.
NEM has distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025, resulting in a strong net cash position of $2.1 billion. NEM announced an increased dividend of 26 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025. Newmont has executed $3.6 billion from $6 billion of buyback authorization as of Feb. 19, 2026.
NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 14% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.
Favorable Gold Prices Bode Well for NEM Stock
Newmont stands to benefit from elevated gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Gold entered 2026 with a stronger momentum. U.S.-Iran tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve fueled the spike in bullion to record levels, with prices soaring to a fresh high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar.
Bullion strengthened again, surging past $5,400 per ounce on March 2, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Gold prices have since retreated from those levels amid a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation fears tied to a spike in oil prices. The Fed’s hawkish tone further weighed on gold prices. These factors dragged bullion to below $4,500 per ounce in late March.
Gold prices have been volatile lately, swinging between gains and losses as President Donald Trump’s shifting rhetoric on the Iran war unsettled markets. Gold surged to near $4,800 per ounce last week after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to oil prices crashing and easing inflation worries. The U.S. dollar also hit a four-week low following the announcement. While bullion prices have eased somewhat again on inflation concerns following failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, they remain supportive at around $4,700 per ounce.
Weaker Production, Higher Costs Cloud NEM’s Prospects
NEM saw lower gold production for the fourth quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 24% year-over-year decline in gold production to 1.45 million ounces, although increasing modestly from the prior quarter. The company also reported a roughly 14% year-over-year decline in gold production in 2025, reaching 5.89 million ounces.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is also expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Moving Higher
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $8.96, suggesting year-over-year growth of 30%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 72.8% in the first quarter.
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 13.14X, a 3.3% premium to the industry’s average of 12.72X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont, Barrick and Kinross Gold currently have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont is well-placed for growth with the strong performance of its assets and a robust portfolio of projects, which should expand production capacity and extend mine life, thereby driving revenues and profits. The asset streamlining rooted in Newmont’s objective to concentrate capital on high-return, long-life assets also underpins its long-term sustainability. Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. Favorable bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, weaker production due to divestments and lower grades, along with higher costs, may weigh on its performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.