Rio Tinto Group (RIO Quick QuoteRIO - Free Report) shares have shot up more than 72% in the past year, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500, which have returned 56.1% and 29.9%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers like BHP Group Limited (BHP Quick QuoteBHP - Free Report) and TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC Quick QuoteTMC - Free Report) have gained 65.9% and 53.4%, respectively, over the same time frame.

RIO Outperforms Industry & S&P 500

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Closing at $98.26 in the last trading session, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $101.53 and significantly higher than its 52-week low of $55.64. It is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

RIO Stock’s 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Averages

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Let’s take a look at RIO’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Performance

The company delivered solid growth in copper production in the fourth quarter of 2025. Per the production results, RIO’s consolidated copper output rose 5% year over year in the fourth quarter. Also, its total copper production reached 883 kiloton (kt) in 2025, up 11% on a year-over-year basis. The results were supported by the solid ramp-up at the Oyu Tolgoi site and strong performance at the Kennecott mine.

RIO continues to advance its project pipeline. Using its proprietary Nuton technology, the company achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona in December 2025. This marks a significant milestone, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.

The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. RIO plans to use Nuton technology to produce copper at this site with the lowest carbon emissions in the US.

Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. In 2026, the company expects its copper production to be 800-870 kt. 

In the fourth quarter, RIO’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara facility showed improvement, with shipments rising 7% from the previous year. The aluminum production also delivered encouraging results. RIO’s aluminum output rose 2% in the quarter, on a year-over-year basis, as refinery and smelter operations improved.

In March 2026, Rio Tinto announced its plans to extract gallium from its alumina refining process in Quebec. After producing its first gallium with Indium Corp. in 2025, the company plans to build a pilot plant in Canada, which is expected to begin operations in 2027. The project has received conditional funding support from Natural Resources Canada and the Government of Québec. If scaled to commercial production, the facility could produce about 40 tons of gallium annually.

Also, in January 2026, Rio Tinto and Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chalco) entered into a deal to acquire Votorantim’s controlling stake in Brazilian aluminium company CBA through a joint venture. The joint venture will be owned 33% by Rio Tinto and 67% by Chalco. The deal will help RIO to expand its green aluminium footprint and strengthen its supply chain.

Several major growth projects of the company are progressing as well. In March 2026, Rio Tinto secured a $1.175 billion financing package from International Finance Corp., IDB Invest, Export Finance Australia and Japan Bank for International Cooperation to support the development of the $2.5 billion Rincon lithium project in Salta Province, Argentina. The project aims to produce about 60,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, with first production expected in 2028 and a 40-year mine life.

In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is expected to conclude in 2029. In October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported, marking the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure. 

Despite the overall solid performance, the company has faced some challenges so far in 2026. Weather-related disruptions in March 2026 affected iron ore shipments. Planned maintenance activities at some copper mining projects temporarily reduced output, while cost pressures from inflation and higher sustaining capital spending impacted margins.

RIO operates in the mineral exploration and mining markets, which include major industry players like BHP Group and TMC.

RIO’s Estimate Revisions

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s bottom line for 2026 has increased 5% in the past 60 days.

Valuation

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From a valuation standpoint, Rio Tinto is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.45X compared with the industry’s average of 14.88X. In comparison, BHP Group and TMC are trading at 15.58X and negative 14.43X, respectively.

Conclusion

Despite ongoing operational headwinds, Rio Tinto continues to make steady progress across its assets and supports a favorable long-term outlook. Increased copper production, continued advancement in major iron ore projects and improving performance in its aluminium and lithium projects are expected to support sustained growth, suggesting that investors may consider this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.