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Rise in Fee Income to Aid RF's Q1 Earnings, Lower NII to Ail
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Key Takeaways
Regions Financial is set to report Q1'26 results, with expected y/y growth in earnings and revenues.
RF's fee income, led by capital markets and mortgage income, is expected to rise amid solid deal activity.
RF's NII may dip sequentially while expenses and non-performing loans are projected to increase.
Regions Financial Corporation (RF - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 17, 2026, before the opening bell. Quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to register year-over-year growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
This Birmingham, AL-based player’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were affected by an increase in non-interest expenses and a lower loan balance. However, a rise in non-interest income, net interest income (NII) and higher deposit balances, along with lower provisions, supported the results to some extent.
Regions Financial has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings have surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 2.87%.
Regions Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings of 60 cents per share has been revised downward over the past seven days. The figure indicates an 11.1% rise from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.91 billion, indicating a 7.1% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
Key Factors & Estimates for RF's Q1
NII & Loans: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. As such, RF’s NII is likely not to have improved much in the quarter to be reported.
Management expects first-quarter NII to decline 1-2% sequentially. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.26 billion, indicating a 1.9% decline on a sequential basis.
In the first quarter 2026, the loan demand was decent. Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial loans and consumer loans was solid in the quarter.
Given this, the company is likely to have witnessed improvement in average interest-earning assets in the first quarter of 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39 billion for average earning assets indicates a marginal increase on a sequential basis.
Non-Interest Income: Deal-making activity was robust in the first quarter despite the Middle Eastern conflict and the ensuing uncertainty about its impact on the economy in the last month of the quarter. While the global volume of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) declined year over year, deal value rose as big transactions dominated the space.
Unlike last year, when President Donald Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans led to the deal drought for several months, this time, companies acknowledged that volatility is part of life, and they will have to do business around it. Lower capital costs and a focus on scale and AI integration drove the M&As. This is anticipated to have supported the company’s capital markets revenues.
Regions Financial expects first-quarter capital markets revenues to be in the lower part of $90 million to $105 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets income is pegged at $91.5 million, indicating a 14.4% rise on a sequential basis.
The first quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business. It was characterized by elevated mortgage rates, hovering at 6-6.5%, and low affordability. While purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints, refinance activity has seen a slight boost from the 2025 lows. As a result, Regions Financial’s mortgage banking fees are expected to have witnessed some improvement in the quarter to be reported.
The consensus estimate for mortgage income is pegged at $33.5 million, indicating a 4.7% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and ATM fees of $119.3 million implies a 3% decline on a sequential basis.
The consensus estimate for revenues from service charges on deposit accounts of $163 million indicates no change from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for wealth management income is pegged at $145.6 million, indicating a 1.8% increase from the prior quarter’s reported number.
Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pinned at $653.6 million, indicating a 2.1% sequential rise.
Expenses: RF’s expenses are expected to have been high in the quarter under discussion due to increases in salaries, employee benefit expenses and other expenses. Although the company has been implementing expense management actions, its ongoing investment in technology advancement and franchise strengthening is likely to have kept the expense base elevated.
Asset Quality: We expect the company to have set aside a huge amount of money for potential delinquent loans amid a challenging operating backdrop, marked by the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $783.8 million, indicating a 12.3% rise from the prior quarter's reported figure.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for RF
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Regions Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Regions Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.08%.
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is +0.03% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KeyCorp’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 41 cents per share.
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 17. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.61% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $2.54 over the past week.
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Rise in Fee Income to Aid RF's Q1 Earnings, Lower NII to Ail
Key Takeaways
Regions Financial Corporation (RF - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 17, 2026, before the opening bell. Quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to register year-over-year growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
This Birmingham, AL-based player’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were affected by an increase in non-interest expenses and a lower loan balance. However, a rise in non-interest income, net interest income (NII) and higher deposit balances, along with lower provisions, supported the results to some extent.
Regions Financial has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings have surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 2.87%.
Regions Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Regions Financial Corporation price-eps-surprise | Regions Financial Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings of 60 cents per share has been revised downward over the past seven days. The figure indicates an 11.1% rise from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.91 billion, indicating a 7.1% increase from the prior-year reported figure.
Key Factors & Estimates for RF's Q1
NII & Loans: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. As such, RF’s NII is likely not to have improved much in the quarter to be reported.
Management expects first-quarter NII to decline 1-2% sequentially. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.26 billion, indicating a 1.9% decline on a sequential basis.
In the first quarter 2026, the loan demand was decent. Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial loans and consumer loans was solid in the quarter.
Given this, the company is likely to have witnessed improvement in average interest-earning assets in the first quarter of 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39 billion for average earning assets indicates a marginal increase on a sequential basis.
Non-Interest Income: Deal-making activity was robust in the first quarter despite the Middle Eastern conflict and the ensuing uncertainty about its impact on the economy in the last month of the quarter. While the global volume of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) declined year over year, deal value rose as big transactions dominated the space.
Unlike last year, when President Donald Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans led to the deal drought for several months, this time, companies acknowledged that volatility is part of life, and they will have to do business around it. Lower capital costs and a focus on scale and AI integration drove the M&As. This is anticipated to have supported the company’s capital markets revenues.
Regions Financial expects first-quarter capital markets revenues to be in the lower part of $90 million to $105 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets income is pegged at $91.5 million, indicating a 14.4% rise on a sequential basis.
The first quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business. It was characterized by elevated mortgage rates, hovering at 6-6.5%, and low affordability. While purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints, refinance activity has seen a slight boost from the 2025 lows. As a result, Regions Financial’s mortgage banking fees are expected to have witnessed some improvement in the quarter to be reported.
The consensus estimate for mortgage income is pegged at $33.5 million, indicating a 4.7% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and ATM fees of $119.3 million implies a 3% decline on a sequential basis.
The consensus estimate for revenues from service charges on deposit accounts of $163 million indicates no change from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for wealth management income is pegged at $145.6 million, indicating a 1.8% increase from the prior quarter’s reported number.
Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pinned at $653.6 million, indicating a 2.1% sequential rise.
Expenses: RF’s expenses are expected to have been high in the quarter under discussion due to increases in salaries, employee benefit expenses and other expenses. Although the company has been implementing expense management actions, its ongoing investment in technology advancement and franchise strengthening is likely to have kept the expense base elevated.
Asset Quality: We expect the company to have set aside a huge amount of money for potential delinquent loans amid a challenging operating backdrop, marked by the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $783.8 million, indicating a 12.3% rise from the prior quarter's reported figure.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for RF
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Regions Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Regions Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.08%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Bank Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is +0.03% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KeyCorp’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 41 cents per share.
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 17. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.61% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $2.54 over the past week.