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Is AngloGold Ashanti Positioned for Further Adjusted EBITDA Upside?
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Key Takeaways
AngloGold Ashanti delivered record $6.3B adjusted EBITDA in 2025, up 129% y/y on higher output and prices.
AU gold output rose 16%, with Sukari's first year and gains at Obuasi, Siguiri, Geita, Cuiaba and Vanguardia.
AU sees 2026 output at 2.80-3.17 Moz, a 3% mid-point dip; cost program and higher gold prices support EBITDA.
AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU - Free Report) delivered adjusted EBITDA of a record $6.3 billion in 2025, marking a year-over-year upside of 129%. This upside was driven by higher production volumes, cost discipline and elevated gold prices.
AU’s gold production increased 16% year over year in 2025. The upside in gold production was attributed to the contributions from the recently acquired Sukari mine, which marked its first full-year contribution and reported a production of 500 thousand ounces in 2025. The production was also driven by a 20% year-over-year increase in Obuasi, a 6% rise in Siguiri and 2% growth in Geita. Cuiaba’s production also increased 1%, while Vanguardia rallied 2%.
Another driver of the company's increased EBITDA performance is the company’s Full Asset Potential Program, which has been driving cost efficiencies and insulating operations against inflation. However, the increase in adjusted EBITDA was partially negated by headwinds from higher operating costs.
Gold production for 2026 is projected at 2.80-3.17 million ounces. This suggests a year-over-year dip of 3% at the mid-point due to cost pressures. The company expects 2027 production to be fairly at the same level as 2026, driven by continued ramp-up at Obuasi.
Nonetheless, AU is gaining from the increase in gold prices in 2026 after having a solid performance in 2025. Solid production driven by mine performances, the rally in gold prices this year and its ongoing cost control efforts position the company for further EBITDA gains in the months ahead.
AngloGold Ashanti Peers’ EBITDA Performance
Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) reported adjusted EBITDA of record $$13.48 billion in 2025, a year-over-year increase of 55.3%. The company reported 2025 revenues of $22.8 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 21.3%. For 2026, Newmont expects 5.3 million gold ounces, including 3.9 million gold ounces from Newmont's managed operations.
Agnico Eagle Mines’ (AEM - Free Report) 2025 adjusted EBITDA increased 72.3% in a year to $8.06 billion, driven by higher revenues from mining operations. The company reported 2025 revenues of $11.91 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 43.7%. Agnico Eagle Mines’ three-year guidance reflects stable production. Agnico Eagle Mines expects production of 3.3-3.5 million ounces annually from 2026 to 2028.
AU’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
AngloGold Ashanti’s stock has appreciated a whopping 149.6% in a year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 91.2% upsurge. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has jumped 57%, whereas the S&P 500 has grown 35%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The AU stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.91X, at a discount to the industry average of 12.69X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti’s 2026 sales is $12 billion, indicating a 23.3% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $8.78 per share, suggesting a surge of 63%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies a 14.5% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests a slip of 0.3%.
EPS estimates for 2026 have moved 2.2% north over the past 60 days, while the same for 2027 has moved down 7.9% over the past 60 days.
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Is AngloGold Ashanti Positioned for Further Adjusted EBITDA Upside?
Key Takeaways
AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU - Free Report) delivered adjusted EBITDA of a record $6.3 billion in 2025, marking a year-over-year upside of 129%. This upside was driven by higher production volumes, cost discipline and elevated gold prices.
AU’s gold production increased 16% year over year in 2025. The upside in gold production was attributed to the contributions from the recently acquired Sukari mine, which marked its first full-year contribution and reported a production of 500 thousand ounces in 2025. The production was also driven by a 20% year-over-year increase in Obuasi, a 6% rise in Siguiri and 2% growth in Geita. Cuiaba’s production also increased 1%, while Vanguardia rallied 2%.
Another driver of the company's increased EBITDA performance is the company’s Full Asset Potential Program, which has been driving cost efficiencies and insulating operations against inflation. However, the increase in adjusted EBITDA was partially negated by headwinds from higher operating costs.
Gold production for 2026 is projected at 2.80-3.17 million ounces. This suggests a year-over-year dip of 3% at the mid-point due to cost pressures. The company expects 2027 production to be fairly at the same level as 2026, driven by continued ramp-up at Obuasi.
Nonetheless, AU is gaining from the increase in gold prices in 2026 after having a solid performance in 2025. Solid production driven by mine performances, the rally in gold prices this year and its ongoing cost control efforts position the company for further EBITDA gains in the months ahead.
AngloGold Ashanti Peers’ EBITDA Performance
Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) reported adjusted EBITDA of record $$13.48 billion in 2025, a year-over-year increase of 55.3%. The company reported 2025 revenues of $22.8 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 21.3%. For 2026, Newmont expects 5.3 million gold ounces, including 3.9 million gold ounces from Newmont's managed operations.
Agnico Eagle Mines’ (AEM - Free Report) 2025 adjusted EBITDA increased 72.3% in a year to $8.06 billion, driven by higher revenues from mining operations. The company reported 2025 revenues of $11.91 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 43.7%. Agnico Eagle Mines’ three-year guidance reflects stable production. Agnico Eagle Mines expects production of 3.3-3.5 million ounces annually from 2026 to 2028.
AU’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
AngloGold Ashanti’s stock has appreciated a whopping 149.6% in a year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 91.2% upsurge. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has jumped 57%, whereas the S&P 500 has grown 35%.
The AU stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.91X, at a discount to the industry average of 12.69X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti’s 2026 sales is $12 billion, indicating a 23.3% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $8.78 per share, suggesting a surge of 63%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies a 14.5% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests a slip of 0.3%.
EPS estimates for 2026 have moved 2.2% north over the past 60 days, while the same for 2027 has moved down 7.9% over the past 60 days.
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.