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2026 Is Poised For Another Year Of Double-Digit Gains, Don't Miss Out

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What a difference a couple of weeks can make.

Two weeks ago, the fear of loss had gripped the market, and headlines were blaring that we could be headed for much worse.

The Middle East crisis had sent oil skyrocketing, and stocks tumbling.

But then stocks rebounded on ceasefire talk and hopes that a lasting peace deal could be had.

Within 14 short days, from the conflict lows, the S&P 500 surged 12.8%, completely erasing the drop from the war, and soaring to new all-time highs with the S&P up 4.10% YTD.

The gains were even more spectacular for the Nasdaq, which rallied 18.3%, making new all-time highs of their own, and is now up 5.28% YTD.

As for energy prices, crude oil is already down -29.1% from the conflict highs. They are still up 24.4% since the start of the war, and 45.2% YTD. But as the situation de-escalates, and the flow of oil from the region gets back to normal, those prices are likely to head much lower, which would further boost the economy and stocks.

While the recent turnaround caught many people off guard, and underinvested, it shouldn’t have.

From the very beginning, we had been saying that the war-induced volatility would be short-lived. That geopolitical conflicts and events usually only have a short-term impact on the markets. And that over the last 40 years of geopolitical shocks, markets usually bounce back quite fast with stocks typically higher 12 months later, 6 months later, even 3-months later.

And here we are.

Now, let me say, the markets were already exhibiting a bit of weakness prior to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Big tech and AI-related names were seeing some profit-taking after heady gains.

And it looked like we were headed for a typical pullback on that alone.

But the campaign against Iran exacerbated what was already taking place, and the pullback/correction was accelerated.

A pullback is defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%, and they happen on average of 3-4 times a year, while corrections are defined as a decline between -10% and -19.99%, and they happen on average of about once a year.

As painful as they are when going thru them, they are very common. Every bull market has them.

And if you know pullbacks and corrections are commonplace moves, and geopolitical impacts on the market are usually short-lived, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell.

And that is what we had been saying over and over again.

But for those who wished they would have taken better advantage of the recent dip, and subsequent surge, the good news is that it looks like there’s a lot more upside to go.

And with the new highs we are seeing, that bodes well for even higher highs. History shows that when the S&P reclaims its old highs after a correction, it usually surges past them rather than lingering.

Six to twelve months later, its often sitting 10-15% above those previous levels.

And that comports with my outlook for another double-digit gain this year.

History Repeats Itself

Last year saw the S&P 500 gain 16.4%. That was on top of 2024’s 23.3%, and 2023’s 24.2%.

The historic AI tech boom led the way.

And it’s reminiscent of the tech boom in 1995-1999 when the market surged by double-digits each year for 5 long, glorious years in a row, resulting in a 220% increase for the S&P, while plenty of individual stocks were up several hundred percent to several thousand percent.

And I believe we could see the same thing again now. Maybe 5 years, or more, of boom times – for similar reasons, and some unique to the present day.

The tech boom back then saw everybody go nuts for technology stocks, driven by the internet and dot-com companies.

It was new and exciting. And the internet was forecast to change the way people shopped, did business, and interacted with each other.

The promise was real, as we now know.

Today’s AI-driven tech boom is forecast to be just as transformative as the personal computer, the internet and the mobile phone. And it’s expected to touch virtually every industry in some way shape or form, as well as impact ordinary lives.

And it will be one of the key drivers for stocks for years to come.

A recent comment underscoring the AI trade came from AMD CEO Lisa Su, who characterized the demand for AI as “insatiable,” and said her company alone could grow by 35% a year for the next 3-5 years because of that. In fact, she said the AI market is "faster than anything we've seen before.” And she predicted the AI data center market could grow to “$1 trillion” by 2030.

A resounding outlook for the scale of AI.

Here’s a few more, by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang:

“AI is the most powerful technology force of our time.”

“AI will revolutionize every industry, from healthcare to transportation.”

“We are at the beginning of a new computing era.”

The amount of investment in AI will dwarf that of the dot-com era. In fact, it already has. And the unprecedented spending and innovation is expected to last for years.

While it transforms the world as we know it, it also has the potential to transform one’s portfolio.

But in addition to the ongoing AI boom, there’s a myriad of other reasons to expect another year of big gains, including better-than-expected inflation reports, the resiliency of the economy, surging productivity, and the expectation for lower interest rates, to name a few.

Continued . . .

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A Productivity Boom Is Underway Too

The latest Productivity and Costs report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), showed nonfarm business productivity rising at a 2.8% annual rate in Q4’25, well above expectations for 1.9%. It also raised Q3’s rate up to 5.2% from the originally stated 4.9%, making it the strongest quarterly gain in 5 years.

What’s noteworthy is that productivity growth typically slows in the late stages of expansion as capacity tightens and incremental gains are harder to extract. But it accelerates at the beginning of a new growth phase when new technologies are adopted, and businesses unlock efficiencies that weren’t previously possible.

That’s why people are comparing it to the late 1990’s. Productivity jumped back then due to the technology gains from the internet boom.

And we could be seeing the same thing now thanks to the technology gains from the AI boom.

The pattern is clear, as productivity jumps, broader economic expansion follows. And the current above-trend productivity gains are another marker for potentially big growth ahead – for the economy and the market.

Inflation And Interest Rates

While inflation is still too high, it’s been more moderate than the Fed had been worrying about.

The last Consumer Price Index (CPI, retail inflation) report showed core inflation (ex-food & energy) at 2.6% y/y, down from 3.3% earlier last year.

The Producer Price Index (PPI, wholesale inflation) is at 3.8% y/y, a bit above last year’s high of 3.7%, but well below its peak.

And the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), came in at 3.0%, in line with last year, but down sharply from the highs of 5.4% just a few short years ago.

The easing of inflation, in part, gave the Fed the green light to cut interest rates 3 times last year.

And they’ve maintained their outlook for another rate cut this year.

As you know, the Fed has a dual mandate, which is price stability (read low inflation), and maximum employment. While inflation is still elevated, the Fed acknowledged it has eased significantly and that “longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal.”

This is important because the labor market has recently become the chief concern for the Fed. And a softening labor market could make the Fed act on rates again sooner rather than later.

Add in the fact that current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, and the new nominee, Kevin Warsh, is expected to push for cuts in the first couple of months he’s at the helm, and we could be looking at a rate cut sooner rather than later.

Plus, as interest rates begin to fall again, you can be sure plenty of money tied up in money markets will find their way back into equities, further supporting stock prices.

The Earnings Outlook Is For Growth

Let’s also not forget that earnings are the main driver of stock prices.

While everyone was fretting over tariffs last year, the earnings picture never wavered and continues to point to growth.

Q4’25 earnings season just put in another better-than-expected showing with a 14.0% EPS growth rate.

Q1’26 earnings season is just getting started and is forecast to show a 13.9% EPS growth rate.

Q2’26 is forecast at 19.3%.

Q3’26 is forecast at 16.2%.

And Q4’26 is forecast at 17.8%.

Wow!

And again, earnings are the key driver of stock prices.

Small-Caps Are Also On The Rise

The bull market rally, now in its fourth year, is broadening.

Tech is still a big driver. And will be for years to come. But other industries are breaking out as well. And categories.

That includes small-caps.

While small-caps lagged the S&P in the first half of the year last year, they outperformed in the second half. And small-caps, along with mid-caps, are leading the indexes in 2026, so far.

In fact, the small-cap Russell 2000 is up 11.9% YTD, with the mid-cap S&P 400 up 10.3%.

Last year’s rate cuts definitely helped. And will continue to do so. As will the expected ones later this year and next.

While it’s true that all-sized borrowers should see relief with lower interest rates, since small-caps tend to have a larger proportion of debt than their bigger counterparts, and often borrow at less favorable terms, the rate cuts should have a sizable impact on small-caps.

Additionally, the budget bill that passed last summer, which included additional tax provisions for corporate America, not the least of which is the 100% immediate expensing of capital expenditures, will also have a positive impact.

Especially since small-caps are typically in the earlier part of their growth cycle. Those tax provisions should allow them to spend/invest more money, accelerate their growth plans, and get the entire tax benefit in year one.

I think we’re on the cusp of a small-cap renaissance.

But note: that expensing, which should have a sizeable impact on smaller-cap companies, also benefits large-cap companies too – like Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, that have invested significant amounts in their AI and data center buildouts. And they too will get the immediate tax benefit of that, without having to wait 5, 7, 15, and in some cases 39 years.

And that too will help fuel the ongoing AI boom.

Do What Works

So, how do you fully take advantage of the market right now?

By implementing tried and true methods that work to find the best stocks.

For example, did you know that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy have beaten the market in 29 of the last 38 years (a 76% win ratio) with an average annual return of nearly 24% per year? That's more than 2 x the S&P, including 4 bear markets and 4 recessions. And consistently beating the market year after year can add up to a lot more than just two times the returns.

It also killed in 1995 with a 52.6% gain; 1996 with 40.9%; 1997 with 43.9%; 1998 with 19.5%; and 1999 with 45.9%. It was also up in 2000 by 14.3% while the S&P was down.

Did you also know that stocks in the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperform those in the bottom 50% by a factor of 2 to 1? There's a reason why they say that half of a stock's price movement can be attributed to the group that it's in. Because it's true!

Those two things will give any investor a huge probability of success and put you well on your way to beating the market.

But you’re not there yet, as those two items alone will only narrow down a field of 10,000 stocks to the top 100 or so. Way too many to trade at once.

So, the next step is to get that list down to the best 5-10 stocks that you can buy.

Proven Profitable Strategies

Picking the best stocks is a lot easier when there’s a proven, profitable method to do it.

And by concentrating on what has proven to work in the past, you’ll have a better idea as to what your probability of success will be now and in the future.

Of course, this won't preclude you from ever having another losing trade. But if your stock picking strategy picks winners more often than losers, you can feel confident that your next trade will have a high probability of success.

Here are a few of my favorite strategies that have regularly crushed the market year after year. 

New Highs:
Studies have shown that stocks making new highs have a tendency of making even higher highs. And this strategy proves it. The alignment of positive price action and strong fundamentals creates all the necessary conditions to see these stocks soar to even greater heights. Over the last 26 years (2000 through 2025), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 39.6% vs. the S&P’s 8.1%, which is 4.9 x the market. 

Small-Cap Growth:
Small-caps have historically outperformed the market time and time again. Often these are newer companies in the early part of their growth cycle, which is when they grow the fastest. This strategy combines the aggressive growth of small-caps with our special blend of growth and valuation metrics for explosive returns. Over the last 26 years (2000 through 2025), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 42.4%, beating the market by 5.2 x the returns

Filtered Zacks Rank 5:
This strategy leverages the Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys, and adds two time-tested filters to narrow the list of stocks down to five high probability picks each week. Over the last 26 years (2000 through 2025), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 45.4%, which is 5.6 x the market.

The best part about these strategies (aside from the returns) is that all of the testing and hard work has already been done. There’s no guesswork involved. Just point and click and start getting into better stocks on your very next trade.

Where To Start

There’s a simple way to add a big performance advantage for your stock-picking success. It's called the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course. 

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Zacks Method for Trading
covers the investment ideas I just shared and guides you to better trading step by step, plus so much more.

You'll quickly see how to get the most out of the proven system that has more than doubled the market for over three decades. Discover what kind of trader you are, how to find stocks with the highest probability of success, and how to trade them so you can consistently beat the market no matter where stock prices are headed.

You’ll get the formulas behind our top-performing strategies suited for a variety of different trading styles.

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Thanks and good trading,

Kevin

Zacks Executive VP Kevin Matras is responsible for all of our trading and investing services. He developed many of our most powerful market-beating strategies and directs the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course.

¹ The individual strategies mentioned herein represent only a portion of the ones covered in the course.


 

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