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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DPZ’s fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $4.29, suggesting a 0.9% decline from $4.33 reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for earnings has decreased by 1.8% in the past 60 days.
DPZ Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.17 billion, indicating growth of 5.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Domino's has a modest earnings surprise history in the trailing four quarters. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged twice, the average surprise being 1.1%. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 0.6%.
DPZ Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for DPZ Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Domino's this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat on earnings. But that's not the case here.
DPZ’s Earnings ESP: Domino's has an Earnings ESP of -0.43%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Domino’s fiscal first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from strength in carryout and delivery businesses, continued momentum in value-led initiatives and ongoing product innovation. Growth in order counts across U.S. and international markets, supported by platforms such as Best Deal Ever and Parmesan Stuffed Crust, is likely to have driven system sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
Emphasis on carryout expansion and digital engagement is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal first quarter. Continued scaling of the carryout business, supported by strong value positioning, along with growth in the loyalty program and incremental contribution from aggregator platforms, particularly DoorDash, is expected to have supported order volumes and customer frequency.
Unit expansion and strong franchisee economics are likely to have supported the company’s top line in the fiscal first quarter. Continued net store additions across domestic and international markets, coupled with robust franchisee profitability and favorable unit-level economics, are expected to have supported systemwide growth and reinvestment activity. Our model predicts fiscal first-quarter revenues from U.S. Franchise Royalties and Fees to rise 4.1% year over year to $157.2 million. We expect revenues from International Franchise Royalties and Fees to rise 7.8% year over year to $81.5 million.
However, macroeconomic headwinds are likely to have weighed on performance. Weather-related disruptions in January impacted store operations and early-quarter trends. Our model predicts fiscal first-quarter U.S. same-store sales to decline 0.5% year over year.
Increases in insurance and other operating expenses remain areas to monitor. Our model predicts the total cost of sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 to rise 7.9% year over year to $721.6 million, which could have implications for margin trends. Our model forecasts fiscal first-quarter gross margin at 38.4%, indicating a decline of 140 basis points from 39.8% reported in the prior-year quarter.
DPZ’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Domino’s shares have lost 10.3% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry’s drop of 0.9% and the S&P 500’s rise of 2.7%. The company’s peers, including Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) and BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) , have declined 12% each, while Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO - Free Report) has gained 21.7% in the same time frame.
DPZ Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Domino’s stock is currently trading at a discount. It is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.32, well below the industry average of 3.55.
DPZ’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other industry players, such as Dutch Bros, BJ's Restaurants and Arcos Dorados, have a P/S of 4.05, 0.56 and 0.38, respectively.
Investment Considerations for DPZ Stock
Domino’s emphasized that its growth algorithm is underpinned by initiatives that extend beyond a single year, with management noting the business is “not a one-and-done company” and that recently launched drivers remain embedded in the base. Key contributors such as Best Deal Ever, Parmesan Stuffed Crust and DoorDash integration continue to scale alongside sustained momentum in carryout, loyalty and aggregator channels. The company stated that it has not yet reached its “fair share” on aggregator platforms, indicating further participation as awareness and marketing efforts build. Carryout remains a central growth driver, having reached meaningful scale while continuing to expand, supported by increased engagement through the loyalty program. Collectively, these factors, along with ongoing product innovation and operational execution, are expected to support DPZ’s same-store sales framework within the pizza category.
However, near-term pressures, including an uncertain macro environment and the impact of outsized insurance costs on corporate store margins, remain relevant considerations in the current environment.
How to Play Domino’s Stock Now?
Domino’s near-term setup appears balanced, supporting a more measured stance. The company continues to benefit from structural growth drivers such as carryout expansion, loyalty engagement and increasing participation on aggregator platforms. However, a still-pressured macro environment and elevated operating costs remain key overhangs that could temper near-term operating momentum.
From a market standpoint, the stock’s recent trajectory underscores a cautious investor stance, with shares lagging both the broader market and industry peers over the past three months. While the stock is currently trading at a discount to the industry on a forward price-to-sales basis, this valuation gap appears justified given the near-term margin headwinds and lack of a clear earnings catalyst.
Given this backdrop, a hold stance appears appropriate. Existing investors may benefit from staying invested to participate in the company’s long-term growth framework. However, the combination of near-term cost pressures, modest earnings visibility and lack of immediate upside triggers suggests that fresh buying may be deferred.
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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold DPZ Stock Before the Q1 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on April 27.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DPZ’s fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $4.29, suggesting a 0.9% decline from $4.33 reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for earnings has decreased by 1.8% in the past 60 days.
DPZ Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.17 billion, indicating growth of 5.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Domino's has a modest earnings surprise history in the trailing four quarters. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged twice, the average surprise being 1.1%. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 0.6%.
DPZ Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for DPZ Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Domino's this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat on earnings. But that's not the case here.
DPZ’s Earnings ESP: Domino's has an Earnings ESP of -0.43%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Domino's Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Influence DPZ’s Q1 Results
Domino’s fiscal first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from strength in carryout and delivery businesses, continued momentum in value-led initiatives and ongoing product innovation. Growth in order counts across U.S. and international markets, supported by platforms such as Best Deal Ever and Parmesan Stuffed Crust, is likely to have driven system sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
Emphasis on carryout expansion and digital engagement is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal first quarter. Continued scaling of the carryout business, supported by strong value positioning, along with growth in the loyalty program and incremental contribution from aggregator platforms, particularly DoorDash, is expected to have supported order volumes and customer frequency.
Unit expansion and strong franchisee economics are likely to have supported the company’s top line in the fiscal first quarter. Continued net store additions across domestic and international markets, coupled with robust franchisee profitability and favorable unit-level economics, are expected to have supported systemwide growth and reinvestment activity. Our model predicts fiscal first-quarter revenues from U.S. Franchise Royalties and Fees to rise 4.1% year over year to $157.2 million. We expect revenues from International Franchise Royalties and Fees to rise 7.8% year over year to $81.5 million.
However, macroeconomic headwinds are likely to have weighed on performance. Weather-related disruptions in January impacted store operations and early-quarter trends. Our model predicts fiscal first-quarter U.S. same-store sales to decline 0.5% year over year.
Increases in insurance and other operating expenses remain areas to monitor. Our model predicts the total cost of sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 to rise 7.9% year over year to $721.6 million, which could have implications for margin trends. Our model forecasts fiscal first-quarter gross margin at 38.4%, indicating a decline of 140 basis points from 39.8% reported in the prior-year quarter.
DPZ’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Domino’s shares have lost 10.3% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry’s drop of 0.9% and the S&P 500’s rise of 2.7%. The company’s peers, including Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) and BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) , have declined 12% each, while Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO - Free Report) has gained 21.7% in the same time frame.
DPZ Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Domino’s stock is currently trading at a discount. It is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.32, well below the industry average of 3.55.
DPZ’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other industry players, such as Dutch Bros, BJ's Restaurants and Arcos Dorados, have a P/S of 4.05, 0.56 and 0.38, respectively.
Investment Considerations for DPZ Stock
Domino’s emphasized that its growth algorithm is underpinned by initiatives that extend beyond a single year, with management noting the business is “not a one-and-done company” and that recently launched drivers remain embedded in the base. Key contributors such as Best Deal Ever, Parmesan Stuffed Crust and DoorDash integration continue to scale alongside sustained momentum in carryout, loyalty and aggregator channels. The company stated that it has not yet reached its “fair share” on aggregator platforms, indicating further participation as awareness and marketing efforts build. Carryout remains a central growth driver, having reached meaningful scale while continuing to expand, supported by increased engagement through the loyalty program. Collectively, these factors, along with ongoing product innovation and operational execution, are expected to support DPZ’s same-store sales framework within the pizza category.
However, near-term pressures, including an uncertain macro environment and the impact of outsized insurance costs on corporate store margins, remain relevant considerations in the current environment.
How to Play Domino’s Stock Now?
Domino’s near-term setup appears balanced, supporting a more measured stance. The company continues to benefit from structural growth drivers such as carryout expansion, loyalty engagement and increasing participation on aggregator platforms. However, a still-pressured macro environment and elevated operating costs remain key overhangs that could temper near-term operating momentum.
From a market standpoint, the stock’s recent trajectory underscores a cautious investor stance, with shares lagging both the broader market and industry peers over the past three months. While the stock is currently trading at a discount to the industry on a forward price-to-sales basis, this valuation gap appears justified given the near-term margin headwinds and lack of a clear earnings catalyst.
Given this backdrop, a hold stance appears appropriate. Existing investors may benefit from staying invested to participate in the company’s long-term growth framework. However, the combination of near-term cost pressures, modest earnings visibility and lack of immediate upside triggers suggests that fresh buying may be deferred.