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MP vs. LYSDY: Which Rare-Earth Stock Is the Smarter Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
Lynas Rare Earths emerges as the more compelling pick over MP Materials in the rare earth space.
Lynas posted 80% revenue surge in first 9 months of fiscal 2026, driven by higher volumes and pricing.
MP Materials is expanding magnet capacity, but higher costs and investments weigh on near-term profits.
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) are among the most prominent players in the global rare earth supply chain and are expected to play key roles in the West’s efforts to secure critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States. It has capabilities covering the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP has a market capitalization of $12.3 billion. Perth, Australia-based Lynas, valued at around $14.2 billion, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
Rare earths are crucial to the production of high-performance magnets used in EVs, defense and high-tech applications. For investors looking to tap into the long-term growth of the rare earth sector, the key question is on which stock one should bet — MP or LYSDY. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America.
2025 marked a major inflection point for the company. MP secured a long-term agreement to supply U.S.-made recycled rare earth magnets to Apple and entered into a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) to accelerate development of a fully integrated domestic magnet supply chain.
Operationally, MP delivered strong production growth. NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) oxide production at Mountain Pass was a record 2,599 MTs in 2025, almost double the 2024 levels. The company also produced a record 50,692 MTs of REO in concentrate, a 12% increase year over year. MP also achieved its first commercial-scale magnet production at its Independence facility, marking meaningful progress in its downstream strategy. MP received the final $50 million prepayment under its long-term supply agreement with General Motors (GM).
MP Material’s revenues increased 10% year over year to $224.4 million in 2025 on higher NdPr oxide and metal revenues, as well as revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products. The company reported an adjusted loss of 24 cents per share for the year, an improvement from the loss of 44 cents in 2024. Gains from higher revenues were offset by higher legal costs, as well as increased spending on advanced projects and development.
Backed by government incentives, MP Materials will construct its second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX. It is expected to begin commissioning in 2028. Once operational, it is projected to produce an estimated 7,000 MTs of magnets annually. Combined with the Independence facility’s 3,000 MT magnet capacity, MP Materials’ overall U.S. rare earth magnet production capacity will expand to 10,000 MT per year. This will significantly boost domestic output to serve both defense and commercial customers.
The Case for Lynas
The company’s operations are anchored by the high-grade Mt Weld mine in Western Australia. Material from Mt Weld is processed at facilities in Kalgoorlie and the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant in Kuantan. Lynas is also developing a Heavy Rare Earth (“HRE”) processing facility in Texas under a U.S. Department of Defense contract.
Lynas achieved a milestone in 2025 with the production of Dysprosium Oxide (Dy) and Terbium Oxide (Tb) on the new production line at Lynas Malaysia. It marked the first commercial production of separated HRE for Lynas and also the first production outside China in decades. In March 2026, the company produced Samarium oxide, a month ahead of target. This first production of Samarium oxide sets Lynas apart as a commercial producer and supplier of both light and heavy rare earths.
Samarium oxide is in high demand for use in high-performance magnets for electronics and aerospace, as well as optical, catalyst and medical applications. Lynas expects to deliver annual initial production of around 400 tons with more upside, once its additional HRE separation capacity is constructed and operational.
Operational performance has been robust. Lynas reported REO production of 9,608 tons in the nine months ended March 2026, up 33% year over year, with NdPr production rising 22% to 5,403 tons. Revenues surged 80% to AUD 678.7 million ($485 million) for the period, driven by higher volumes and stronger pricing.
Strategically, Lynas continues to secure long-term demand visibility. In March 2026, Lynas announced the signing of a binding Letter of Intent to finalize a rare earth oxide supply agreement with the U.S. government. This will support the U.S. industrial base and the U.S. government’s rare earths supply-chain resilience efforts. As per the terms, around $96 million previously allocated to the construction of an HRE facility in Texas will now be used to purchase light and heavy rare earth oxide products from Lynas’ existing facilities over a four-year period. The floor price for the supply of NdPr oxide will be $110 per kg.
The company also signed two important agreements with its Japanese partners, Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (JARE), which provide firm offtake commitments, pricing floors and exposure to upside pricing. The renewal of Lynas Malaysia’s operating license for 10 years in March 2026 significantly enhances regulatory certainty compared to prior shorter-term renewals.
Having largely completed its Lynas 2025 growth plan, which expanded capacity, improved efficiency and enabled HRE production, the company is now focused on its “Towards 2030” strategy. Its two focal points are optimizing performance from the Lynas 2025 capital investments and expanding its resource and scale, boosting downstream capacity and expanding in the metal and magnet supply chain. Lynas continues to develop partnerships with metal and magnet makers to expand the outside China metal and magnet supply chain.
How Do Estimates Compare for MP & LYSDY?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at earnings of 19 cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share, implying 492.6% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 earnings (ending June 2026) is pegged at 24 cents per share, indicating a substantial increase from earnings of one cent in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate of 44 cents indicates 85% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Estimates for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 have moved up in the past 60 days. This is shown in the charts below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP vs. LYSDY: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past year, MP Materials stock has surged 164.9% compared with Lynas’ 158.8% gain.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 22.10, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.60. Lynas is also trading higher than the industry, but lower than MP Materials, at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 13.07.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or Lynas: Which Stock Is the Better Buy?
Both MP Materials and Lynas are strategically important players in a sector with strong long-term demand tailwinds. MP benefits from unique positioning as the only fully integrated U.S.-based producer and continues to make progress in building a domestic magnet supply chain. However, its investment-heavy model, rising costs and still-evolving downstream operations are likely to weigh on profitability in the near term.
Lynas, on the other hand, combines strong operational momentum with improving financial performance, rising earnings estimates and clearer near-term visibility. Its successful expansion into heavy rare earths, long-term supply agreements with price floors and diversified global footprint provide both growth and stability. Combined with a cheaper valuation, Lynas represents the more compelling buy for investors seeking exposure to rare earths.
Lynas currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while MP Materials has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
MP vs. LYSDY: Which Rare-Earth Stock Is the Smarter Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) are among the most prominent players in the global rare earth supply chain and are expected to play key roles in the West’s efforts to secure critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States. It has capabilities covering the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP has a market capitalization of $12.3 billion. Perth, Australia-based Lynas, valued at around $14.2 billion, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
Rare earths are crucial to the production of high-performance magnets used in EVs, defense and high-tech applications. For investors looking to tap into the long-term growth of the rare earth sector, the key question is on which stock one should bet — MP or LYSDY. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP Materials
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America.
2025 marked a major inflection point for the company. MP secured a long-term agreement to supply U.S.-made recycled rare earth magnets to Apple and entered into a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) to accelerate development of a fully integrated domestic magnet supply chain.
Operationally, MP delivered strong production growth. NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) oxide production at Mountain Pass was a record 2,599 MTs in 2025, almost double the 2024 levels. The company also produced a record 50,692 MTs of REO in concentrate, a 12% increase year over year. MP also achieved its first commercial-scale magnet production at its Independence facility, marking meaningful progress in its downstream strategy. MP received the final $50 million prepayment under its long-term supply agreement with General Motors (GM).
MP Material’s revenues increased 10% year over year to $224.4 million in 2025 on higher NdPr oxide and metal revenues, as well as revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products. The company reported an adjusted loss of 24 cents per share for the year, an improvement from the loss of 44 cents in 2024. Gains from higher revenues were offset by higher legal costs, as well as increased spending on advanced projects and development.
Backed by government incentives, MP Materials will construct its second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX. It is expected to begin commissioning in 2028. Once operational, it is projected to produce an estimated 7,000 MTs of magnets annually.
Combined with the Independence facility’s 3,000 MT magnet capacity, MP Materials’ overall U.S. rare earth magnet production capacity will expand to 10,000 MT per year. This will significantly boost domestic output to serve both defense and commercial customers.
The Case for Lynas
The company’s operations are anchored by the high-grade Mt Weld mine in Western Australia. Material from Mt Weld is processed at facilities in Kalgoorlie and the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant in Kuantan. Lynas is also developing a Heavy Rare Earth (“HRE”) processing facility in Texas under a U.S. Department of Defense contract.
Lynas achieved a milestone in 2025 with the production of Dysprosium Oxide (Dy) and Terbium Oxide (Tb) on the new production line at Lynas Malaysia. It marked the first commercial production of separated HRE for Lynas and also the first production outside China in decades. In March 2026, the company produced Samarium oxide, a month ahead of target. This first production of Samarium oxide sets Lynas apart as a commercial producer and supplier of both light and heavy rare earths.
Samarium oxide is in high demand for use in high-performance magnets for electronics and aerospace, as well as optical, catalyst and medical applications. Lynas expects to deliver annual initial production of around 400 tons with more upside, once its additional HRE separation capacity is constructed and operational.
Operational performance has been robust. Lynas reported REO production of 9,608 tons in the nine months ended March 2026, up 33% year over year, with NdPr production rising 22% to 5,403 tons. Revenues surged 80% to AUD 678.7 million ($485 million) for the period, driven by higher volumes and stronger pricing.
Strategically, Lynas continues to secure long-term demand visibility. In March 2026, Lynas announced the signing of a binding Letter of Intent to finalize a rare earth oxide supply agreement with the U.S. government. This will support the U.S. industrial base and the U.S. government’s rare earths supply-chain resilience efforts. As per the terms, around $96 million previously allocated to the construction of an HRE facility in Texas will now be used to purchase light and heavy rare earth oxide products from Lynas’ existing facilities over a four-year period. The floor price for the supply of NdPr oxide will be $110 per kg.
The company also signed two important agreements with its Japanese partners, Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (JARE), which provide firm offtake commitments, pricing floors and exposure to upside pricing. The renewal of Lynas Malaysia’s operating license for 10 years in March 2026 significantly enhances regulatory certainty compared to prior shorter-term renewals.
Having largely completed its Lynas 2025 growth plan, which expanded capacity, improved efficiency and enabled HRE production, the company is now focused on its “Towards 2030” strategy. Its two focal points are optimizing performance from the Lynas 2025 capital investments and expanding its resource and scale, boosting downstream capacity and expanding in the metal and magnet supply chain. Lynas continues to develop partnerships with metal and magnet makers to expand the outside China metal and magnet supply chain.
How Do Estimates Compare for MP & LYSDY?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at earnings of 19 cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share, implying 492.6% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 earnings (ending June 2026) is pegged at 24 cents per share, indicating a substantial increase from earnings of one cent in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate of 44 cents indicates 85% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. Estimates for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 have moved up in the past 60 days. This is shown in the charts below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP vs. LYSDY: Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past year, MP Materials stock has surged 164.9% compared with Lynas’ 158.8% gain.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 22.10, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.60. Lynas is also trading higher than the industry, but lower than MP Materials, at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 13.07.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or Lynas: Which Stock Is the Better Buy?
Both MP Materials and Lynas are strategically important players in a sector with strong long-term demand tailwinds. MP benefits from unique positioning as the only fully integrated U.S.-based producer and continues to make progress in building a domestic magnet supply chain. However, its investment-heavy model, rising costs and still-evolving downstream operations are likely to weigh on profitability in the near term.
Lynas, on the other hand, combines strong operational momentum with improving financial performance, rising earnings estimates and clearer near-term visibility. Its successful expansion into heavy rare earths, long-term supply agreements with price floors and diversified global footprint provide both growth and stability. Combined with a cheaper valuation, Lynas represents the more compelling buy for investors seeking exposure to rare earths.
Lynas currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while MP Materials has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.