Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Occidental Petroleum?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Occidental Petroleum (OXY Quick QuoteOXY - Free Report) earns a #1 (Strong Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.74 a share, just 12 days from its upcoming earnings release on May 5, 2026.

By taking the percentage difference between the $0.74 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.62 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Occidental Petroleum has an Earnings ESP of +17.92%. Investors should also know that OXY is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

OXY is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Crescent Energy (CRGY Quick QuoteCRGY - Free Report) .

Crescent Energy, which is readying to report earnings on May 4, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.49 a share, and CRGY is 11 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Crescent Energy is $0.43, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +13.08%.

OXY and CRGY's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>