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Can Aflac's Japan Business Help Deliver a Quack-worthy Q1 Beat?
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Key Takeaways
Aflac is set to report Q1 2026 results on April 29, with EPS expected up 9% to $1.81.
Aflac Japan's pre-tax adjusted earnings are projected to rise 10.9% despite premium declines.
Aflac's net investment income is expected to fall 4.5%, while U.S. growth looks muted.
Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.81 per share on revenues of $4.29 billion.
The first-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one upward revision and no movement in the opposite direction over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 9%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 0.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $17.17 billion, implying a fall of 7% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $7.28, implying 2.8% year-over-year decline.
Aflac beat earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.
AFL has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q1 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 3.6% year-over-year decrease. While the consensus mark signals a 2.9% increase in net earned premiums in the Aflac U.S. unit, the same for the Aflac Japan unit suggests a 3.4% decline from the year-ago quarter.
Also, the consensus mark for net investment income predicts a 4.5% decline from the year-ago period.
The total benefit to premium ratio in Aflac U.S. is pegged at 49.4, up from 47.7 a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates only 0.3% year-over-year growth.
Nevertheless, the total benefit to premium ratio for Aflac Japan stands at 62.4, down from 65.8 in the year-ago period. Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed 10.9% growth in pre-tax adjusted earnings.This is likely to have positioned the company for year-over-year growth in the bottom line and an earnings beat.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other companies worth considering from the broader Finance space, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Slide Insurance’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter of 82 cents per share remained stable over the past week. SLDE’s revenues are pegged at $373.16 million for the quarter.
TWFG, Inc. (TWFG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TWFG’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 20 cents per share, signaling 25% year-over-year growth. TWFG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 26.4%.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arthur J. Gallagher’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $4.40 per share, indicating 19.9% year-over-year growth. AJG’s revenues are pegged at $4.65 billion, signaling 26.3% year-over-year jump.
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Can Aflac's Japan Business Help Deliver a Quack-worthy Q1 Beat?
Key Takeaways
Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.81 per share on revenues of $4.29 billion.
The first-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one upward revision and no movement in the opposite direction over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 9%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 0.8%.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $17.17 billion, implying a fall of 7% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $7.28, implying 2.8% year-over-year decline.
Aflac beat earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 8.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote
Q1 Earnings Whispers for Aflac
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.
AFL has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q1 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 3.6% year-over-year decrease. While the consensus mark signals a 2.9% increase in net earned premiums in the Aflac U.S. unit, the same for the Aflac Japan unit suggests a 3.4% decline from the year-ago quarter.
Also, the consensus mark for net investment income predicts a 4.5% decline from the year-ago period.
The total benefit to premium ratio in Aflac U.S. is pegged at 49.4, up from 47.7 a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates only 0.3% year-over-year growth.
Nevertheless, the total benefit to premium ratio for Aflac Japan stands at 62.4, down from 65.8 in the year-ago period. Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed 10.9% growth in pre-tax adjusted earnings.This is likely to have positioned the company for year-over-year growth in the bottom line and an earnings beat.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other companies worth considering from the broader Finance space, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SLDE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.75% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Slide Insurance’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter of 82 cents per share remained stable over the past week. SLDE’s revenues are pegged at $373.16 million for the quarter.
TWFG, Inc. (TWFG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TWFG’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 20 cents per share, signaling 25% year-over-year growth. TWFG’s earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 26.4%.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arthur J. Gallagher’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $4.40 per share, indicating 19.9% year-over-year growth. AJG’s revenues are pegged at $4.65 billion, signaling 26.3% year-over-year jump.