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The first-quarter 2026 earnings season is underway, and investors are closely watching the oil and energy space as it moves through an uncertain economic backdrop, ongoing geopolitical tensions and swings in commodity prices. Some companies have held up well, helped by steady demand and better execution, but the overall environment is still being shaped by supply-chain disruptions and changing energy policies. At the same time, price fluctuations and a stronger focus on energy security have stayed front and center.
Even in this mixed environment, a few energy companies look well placed to beat expectations. If these companies play to their strengths, they could deliver upside surprises, which may give the stocks a near-term lift and create opportunities for investors.
Backed by our proprietary research and market analysis, we identify four stocks — BP plc (BP - Free Report) , Enterprise Products Partners (EPD - Free Report) , TotalEnergies SE (TTE - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) — that are well-positioned to benefit from a favorable post-earnings price reaction.
Q1 Trends in Oil and Gas Prices
The first quarter of 2026 did not unfold the way many in the energy market had expected. At the start of the year, there was a broad belief that oil prices would soften, with forecasts placing West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude in the under-$60-per-barrel range. But the story quickly took a different turn.
As the months progressed, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East began to escalate, gradually tightening the market’s nerves. Then came a major turning point on Feb. 28, when military actions effectively disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The impact was immediate. Concerns over supply disruptions rippled across global markets, pushing prices sharply higher and overshadowing what had otherwise been a well-supplied environment with comfortable inventory levels.
By the end of the quarter, WTI averaged $71.98 per barrel, slightly higher than the $71.84 recorded a year earlier. But that modest year-over-year increase does not fully capture the volatility underneath. At one point, Brent crude surged as high as $117 per barrel, reflecting how sensitive the market had become to geopolitical risk.
Natural gas followed a different, yet equally compelling narrative. Prices at the Henry Hub climbed to an average of $4.79 per million British thermal units in the first quarter, up from $4.15 in the prior year. This rise was about geopolitics, demand and seasonal pressures. A colder-than-expected winter drove stronger heating demand, while consumption remained firm across residential and industrial sectors.
At the same time, growing electricity needs — including those tied to energy-intensive AI data centers — added another layer of demand. Even though U.S. production stayed robust, higher LNG exports and seasonal factors tightened available supply, keeping inventories in check and supporting prices.
Together, these dynamics painted a quarter where expectations gave way to reality — and where both oil and gas markets were shaped by a mix of geopolitical shocks and fundamental demand strength.
Earnings Trends in the Oils/Energy Sector
Per the Earnings Trends report, as of April 22, 12% of companies in the Oils/Energy sector — representing 13.6% of the sector’s market capitalization — have reported quarterly earnings. Among the companies that have reported first-quarter results, 100% have beaten both earnings and revenue estimates. Earnings increased 66.2% year over year, while revenues rose 14.6%.
Finding Stocks With Strong Upside Potential
With so many energy companies in the mix, spotting the ones likely to beat earnings expectations is not easy. While no one can predict outcomes with complete certainty, our approach helps narrow down the choices and makes the task more manageable.
Our Zacks research shows that the chance of an earnings beat for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) is as high as 70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP is our exclusive proprietary tool designed to identify stocks with the highest potential to outperform. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Our Choices
BP is gearing up to announce its quarterly earnings on April 28, before the opening bell, with market indicators pointing toward a potentially strong performance. As one of the world’s leading integrated energy companies, BP benefits from a well-diversified presence across oil and gas exploration, production, refining and marketing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 85 cents per share, representing a robust 60.38% increase compared with the same quarter last year, highlighting solid expected growth.
The company’s ability to create value through efficiency, innovation and scale continues to strengthen its competitive positioning and long-term profitability. BP currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.40% and a Zacks Rank #1. The combination indicates a favorable chance of an earnings beat. BP's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the last four quarters and missed once, delivering an average negative surprise of 12.58%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Another company attracting attention is Enterprise Products Partners, scheduled to report quarterly earnings on April 28, before the opening bell. This Houston-based midstream energy company operates one of the largest networks of pipelines, storage facilities and processing plants in North America, handling natural gas, crude oil and petrochemicals. Its stable, fee-based business model allows Enterprise Products Partnersto consistently return cash to investors, providing a solid foundation even in volatile markets.
With an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank #2, the company is well-positioned to deliver an earnings beat. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s earnings is pegged at 71 cents per share, indicating a 10.94% increase from the prior-year reported figure. EPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average negative surprise of 1.88%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Price and EPS Surprise
Next is TotalEnergies, scheduled to report quarterly earnings on April 29, before the opening bell. This is a France-based integrated oil and gas company with a global presence. TotalEnergies produces and markets oil, natural gas, electricity and renewable energy while steadily expanding into low-carbon energy solutions. With an Earnings ESP of +13.42% and a Zacks Rank #1, the company is positioned to deliver an earnings beat. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTE’s earnings is $1.91 per share, indicating a 4.37% increase from the prior year.
TotalEnergies’ earnings have missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average negative surprise of 2.96%. However, the company’s diversified portfolio and consistent global operations give it the potential to outperform expectations this time.
This is depicted in the chart below:
TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise
Finally, ConocoPhillips is set to report its quarterly earnings on April 30, before the market opens, and current indicators suggest a favorable setup going into the announcement. The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.05% and a Zacks Rank #1. The combination points toward a strong possibility of an earnings beat this quarter. Headquartered in Houston, ConocoPhillips ranks among the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies.
ConocoPhillips’ extensive global operations span multiple continents, giving it access to a wide range of oil and gas resources. This international reach, combined with a consistent focus on cost efficiency and the adoption of advanced technologies, supports its ability to maintain profitability and remain competitive in the energy sector. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s earnings is pegged at $1.6 per share, indicating a 23.44% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. COP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the last four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 3.83%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Zacks
4 Energy Stocks Likely to Outperform Q1 Earnings Estimates
Key Takeaways
The first-quarter 2026 earnings season is underway, and investors are closely watching the oil and energy space as it moves through an uncertain economic backdrop, ongoing geopolitical tensions and swings in commodity prices. Some companies have held up well, helped by steady demand and better execution, but the overall environment is still being shaped by supply-chain disruptions and changing energy policies. At the same time, price fluctuations and a stronger focus on energy security have stayed front and center.
Even in this mixed environment, a few energy companies look well placed to beat expectations. If these companies play to their strengths, they could deliver upside surprises, which may give the stocks a near-term lift and create opportunities for investors.
Backed by our proprietary research and market analysis, we identify four stocks — BP plc (BP - Free Report) , Enterprise Products Partners (EPD - Free Report) , TotalEnergies SE (TTE - Free Report) and ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) — that are well-positioned to benefit from a favorable post-earnings price reaction.
Q1 Trends in Oil and Gas Prices
The first quarter of 2026 did not unfold the way many in the energy market had expected. At the start of the year, there was a broad belief that oil prices would soften, with forecasts placing West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude in the under-$60-per-barrel range. But the story quickly took a different turn.
As the months progressed, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East began to escalate, gradually tightening the market’s nerves. Then came a major turning point on Feb. 28, when military actions effectively disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The impact was immediate. Concerns over supply disruptions rippled across global markets, pushing prices sharply higher and overshadowing what had otherwise been a well-supplied environment with comfortable inventory levels.
By the end of the quarter, WTI averaged $71.98 per barrel, slightly higher than the $71.84 recorded a year earlier. But that modest year-over-year increase does not fully capture the volatility underneath. At one point, Brent crude surged as high as $117 per barrel, reflecting how sensitive the market had become to geopolitical risk.
Natural gas followed a different, yet equally compelling narrative. Prices at the Henry Hub climbed to an average of $4.79 per million British thermal units in the first quarter, up from $4.15 in the prior year. This rise was about geopolitics, demand and seasonal pressures. A colder-than-expected winter drove stronger heating demand, while consumption remained firm across residential and industrial sectors.
At the same time, growing electricity needs — including those tied to energy-intensive AI data centers — added another layer of demand. Even though U.S. production stayed robust, higher LNG exports and seasonal factors tightened available supply, keeping inventories in check and supporting prices.
Together, these dynamics painted a quarter where expectations gave way to reality — and where both oil and gas markets were shaped by a mix of geopolitical shocks and fundamental demand strength.
Earnings Trends in the Oils/Energy Sector
Per the Earnings Trends report, as of April 22, 12% of companies in the Oils/Energy sector — representing 13.6% of the sector’s market capitalization — have reported quarterly earnings. Among the companies that have reported first-quarter results, 100% have beaten both earnings and revenue estimates. Earnings increased 66.2% year over year, while revenues rose 14.6%.
Finding Stocks With Strong Upside Potential
With so many energy companies in the mix, spotting the ones likely to beat earnings expectations is not easy. While no one can predict outcomes with complete certainty, our approach helps narrow down the choices and makes the task more manageable.
Our Zacks research shows that the chance of an earnings beat for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) is as high as 70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP is our exclusive proprietary tool designed to identify stocks with the highest potential to outperform. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Our Choices
BP is gearing up to announce its quarterly earnings on April 28, before the opening bell, with market indicators pointing toward a potentially strong performance. As one of the world’s leading integrated energy companies, BP benefits from a well-diversified presence across oil and gas exploration, production, refining and marketing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 85 cents per share, representing a robust 60.38% increase compared with the same quarter last year, highlighting solid expected growth.
The company’s ability to create value through efficiency, innovation and scale continues to strengthen its competitive positioning and long-term profitability. BP currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.40% and a Zacks Rank #1. The combination indicates a favorable chance of an earnings beat. BP's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the last four quarters and missed once, delivering an average negative surprise of 12.58%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
This is depicted in the chart below:
BP p.l.c. Price and EPS Surprise
BP p.l.c. price-eps-surprise | BP p.l.c. Quote
Another company attracting attention is Enterprise Products Partners, scheduled to report quarterly earnings on April 28, before the opening bell. This Houston-based midstream energy company operates one of the largest networks of pipelines, storage facilities and processing plants in North America, handling natural gas, crude oil and petrochemicals. Its stable, fee-based business model allows Enterprise Products Partnersto consistently return cash to investors, providing a solid foundation even in volatile markets.
With an Earnings ESP of +1.91% and a Zacks Rank #2, the company is well-positioned to deliver an earnings beat. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPD’s earnings is pegged at 71 cents per share, indicating a 10.94% increase from the prior-year reported figure. EPD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the last four quarters and missed twice, delivering an average negative surprise of 1.88%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Price and EPS Surprise
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. price-eps-surprise | Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Quote
Next is TotalEnergies, scheduled to report quarterly earnings on April 29, before the opening bell. This is a France-based integrated oil and gas company with a global presence. TotalEnergies produces and markets oil, natural gas, electricity and renewable energy while steadily expanding into low-carbon energy solutions. With an Earnings ESP of +13.42% and a Zacks Rank #1, the company is positioned to deliver an earnings beat. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTE’s earnings is $1.91 per share, indicating a 4.37% increase from the prior year.
TotalEnergies’ earnings have missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average negative surprise of 2.96%. However, the company’s diversified portfolio and consistent global operations give it the potential to outperform expectations this time.
This is depicted in the chart below:
TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise
TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR Quote
Finally, ConocoPhillips is set to report its quarterly earnings on April 30, before the market opens, and current indicators suggest a favorable setup going into the announcement. The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.05% and a Zacks Rank #1. The combination points toward a strong possibility of an earnings beat this quarter. Headquartered in Houston, ConocoPhillips ranks among the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies.
ConocoPhillips’ extensive global operations span multiple continents, giving it access to a wide range of oil and gas resources. This international reach, combined with a consistent focus on cost efficiency and the adoption of advanced technologies, supports its ability to maintain profitability and remain competitive in the energy sector. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s earnings is pegged at $1.6 per share, indicating a 23.44% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. COP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the last four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 3.83%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
ConocoPhillips Price and EPS Surprise
ConocoPhillips price-eps-surprise | ConocoPhillips Quote