Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU Quick QuoteCGAU - Free Report) is slated to come up with first-quarter 2026 results after market close on April 29. The company’s results are expected to reflect continued operational momentum underpinned by stable production from core assets like Mount Milligan and Öksüt Mine, along with a supportive gold price environment.  

However, the performance may have been tempered by cost inflation, coupled with operational sensitivities around ore grades, recoveries and mine sequencing at Mount Milligan, and leach kinetics at Öksüt. This comes alongside a near-term disruption following the January explosion at the Langeloth Facility, with the extent of downtime and its impact on cash flow. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been going up in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 41 cents per share, suggesting a 241.7% year-over-year rise.

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CGAU beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 29.4%. 

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Q1 Earnings Whispers for CGAU

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CGAU this season. This is because it has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. 

CGAU has an Earnings ESP of +6.97% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Factors Likely to Have Shaped CGAU’s Q1 Earnings

CGAU’s performance is building directly on the operational momentum and cost profile seen in the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Centerra Gold showed steady operating execution and healthy financial performance. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents and revenue of $401.6 million. Gold sales were 68,143 ounces and copper volumes reached about 12.5 million pounds. This performance was driven by consistent output from Mount Milligan and Öksüt.  

The period saw a rise in all-in sustaining costs (AISC), which came in around $1,646 per ounce. These higher sustaining costs were driven by mine sequencing, sustaining capital intensity (including tailings, equipment upgrades and site development) and inflationary inputs, such as fuel, labor and consumables. 

Building on this momentum, the first quarter is expected to reflect continuity in production trends but with a shift in cost dynamics and added layers of both micro and macro pressures.  

Output from core assets is likely to have remained stable, supporting sales volumes. However, costs are expected to have trended higher due to increased sustaining activity and ongoing project development spend. The temporary disruption at the Langeloth facility following the January incident is also a key factor, as it may have affected molybdenum processing and created inefficiencies in the supply chain.  

This could have weighed on margins and working capital in the near term. Operational sensitivities such as ore grades, maintenance schedules and input cost inflation may have also hurt quarterly performance. 

A supportive gold price environment is likely to have been a tailwind to revenues and partly offset cost pressures.  

Building on this, Centerra Gold is likely to have recorded a steady but margin-sensitive first-quarter performance, with outcomes closely tied to realized metal prices and its ability to absorb costs. Firm gold prices and supportive copper by-product credits are expected to have helped sustain EBITDA margins even as all-in sustaining costs remained in the mid-to-high range. 

CGAU Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation

CGAU’s shares have shot up 181.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 79.9% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 33.2%. Among its peers, AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU Quick QuoteAU - Free Report) , DPM Metals Inc. (DPMLF Quick QuoteDPMLF - Free Report) and Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX Quick QuoteEQX - Free Report) have rallied 144.3%, 171.2% and 109.8%, respectively, over the same period. 

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From a valuation standpoint, CGAU is currently trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 2.9. This represents a roughly 35% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 4.47X.  

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CGAU is trading at a discount to AngloGold, Equinox and DPM Metals. DPMLF, EQX and AU have a Value Score of C. 

Investment Thesis for CGAU Stock

Centerra Gold is well-positioned for steady production, with balanced exposure to gold and copper through Mount Milligan and Oksut. Elevated gold prices enhance cash generation despite ongoing sustaining capital. Strategic investments in mine-life extension strengthen long-term reserve visibility and asset value. However, rising all-in sustaining costs, driven by higher sustaining capital, inflationary inputs and project spending, are likely to pressure near-term margins. Operational risks, including the Langeloth disruption, ore grade variability and maintenance cycles, add uncertainty.  

Final Thoughts: Hold CGAU Shares

Centerra Gold’s key assets, Mount Milligan and Öksüt, continue to support consistent production and provide a stable base for revenues. Favorable gold prices and copper by-product contributions offer some margin support, though elevated costs and regulatory restrictions may keep profitability sensitive. The temporary shutdown of the Langeloth facility following the January 2026 incident adds near-term uncertainty and could weigh on earnings until operations resume. Overall, the company remains fundamentally stable but faces operational and cost headwinds. Hence, new investors should look for a better entry point while existing shareholders can retain their positions.