We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Will Lower Gardasil Sales Hurt MRK's Vaccines Sales in Q1 Earnings?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
MRK may post weak Q1 Gardasil sales as China inventory issues and Japan demand persist.
New vaccine Capvaxive likely improved sequentially in Q1, supported by growing demand.
RSV antibody Enflonsia recorded $21 million in Q4 sales, declining sequentially. Its Q1 numbers are in focus.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) continues to encounter persistent challenges with its second-largest product, Gardasil, a vaccine approved to prevent certain cancers caused by the human papillomavirus. While Gardasil’s sales grew steadily through 2022, growth began to slow down in 2024.
Gardasil sales plunged 39% year over year to $5.2 billion in 2025.
Sales of Gardasil are declining due to weak performance in China, which resulted from sluggish demand trends amid an economic slowdown. Lower demand in China resulted in above-normal channel inventory levels at Merck’s commercialization partner in China, Zhifei.
Accordingly, Merck decided to temporarily halt shipments of Gardasil in China to allow Zhifei to burn down existing inventory. The company is also seeing lower demand for the vaccine in Japan, with sales not expected to improve in 2026.
We expect Gardasil sales to decline due to lower demand in China as well as Japan in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gardasil’s first-quarter sales stands at $1.18 billion.
MRK’s Other Vaccines & Competition in the Space
Besides Gardasil, Merck markets vaccines like ProQuad/ M-M-R II/Varivax (measles, mumps, rubella and varicella virus vaccine), Vaxneuvance (pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine), RotaTeq (rotavirus vaccine), Pneumovax 23 (pneumococcal vaccine polyvalent) and its newest jab, Capvaxive (21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine).
Sales of some other Merck vaccines, like Proquad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Rotateq and Pneumovax 23, also declined in 2025.
However, as seen in previous quarters, sales of the new vaccine, Capvaxive, are likely to have improved sequentially in the first quarter, driven by growing demand.
Also, Merck’s newest respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibody, Enflonsia (clesrovimab), was approved in the United States in June 2025. The RSV antibody was approved in Europe earlier this month.
Enflonsia recorded sales worth $21 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, which declined sequentially due to a lower-than-expected infant immunization rate and high inventory levels in the market. As Merck prepares to report its first-quarter 2026 results, it remains to be seen how Enflonsia performs in the quarter.
Enflonsia faces competition from AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) /Sanofi’s (SNY - Free Report) RSV antibody Beyfortus, which is approved for a similar indication.
In the first quarter of 2026, the AZN/SNY antibody recorded sales worth €284 million, up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Besides antibodies, some vaccines have been approved for preventing RSV in certain patients in the United States. These include Pfizer’s Abrysvo, GSK’s Arexvy and Moderna’s mRESVIA.
MRK's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Year to date, shares of Merck have increased 8.9% against the industry’s 5.4% decline. The stock has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Merck is trading at a premium compared to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 17.69 forward earnings, higher than 16.62 for the industry and higher than its 5-year mean of 12.68.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has decreased from $5.18 to $4.93, while the same for 2027 has declined from $9.98 to $9.91 over the past 60 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
Will Lower Gardasil Sales Hurt MRK's Vaccines Sales in Q1 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Merck (MRK - Free Report) continues to encounter persistent challenges with its second-largest product, Gardasil, a vaccine approved to prevent certain cancers caused by the human papillomavirus. While Gardasil’s sales grew steadily through 2022, growth began to slow down in 2024.
Gardasil sales plunged 39% year over year to $5.2 billion in 2025.
Sales of Gardasil are declining due to weak performance in China, which resulted from sluggish demand trends amid an economic slowdown. Lower demand in China resulted in above-normal channel inventory levels at Merck’s commercialization partner in China, Zhifei.
Accordingly, Merck decided to temporarily halt shipments of Gardasil in China to allow Zhifei to burn down existing inventory. The company is also seeing lower demand for the vaccine in Japan, with sales not expected to improve in 2026.
We expect Gardasil sales to decline due to lower demand in China as well as Japan in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gardasil’s first-quarter sales stands at $1.18 billion.
MRK’s Other Vaccines & Competition in the Space
Besides Gardasil, Merck markets vaccines like ProQuad/ M-M-R II/Varivax (measles, mumps, rubella and varicella virus vaccine), Vaxneuvance (pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine), RotaTeq (rotavirus vaccine), Pneumovax 23 (pneumococcal vaccine polyvalent) and its newest jab, Capvaxive (21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine).
Sales of some other Merck vaccines, like Proquad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Rotateq and Pneumovax 23, also declined in 2025.
However, as seen in previous quarters, sales of the new vaccine, Capvaxive, are likely to have improved sequentially in the first quarter, driven by growing demand.
Also, Merck’s newest respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibody, Enflonsia (clesrovimab), was approved in the United States in June 2025. The RSV antibody was approved in Europe earlier this month.
Enflonsia recorded sales worth $21 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, which declined sequentially due to a lower-than-expected infant immunization rate and high inventory levels in the market. As Merck prepares to report its first-quarter 2026 results, it remains to be seen how Enflonsia performs in the quarter.
Enflonsia faces competition from AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) /Sanofi’s (SNY - Free Report) RSV antibody Beyfortus, which is approved for a similar indication.
In the first quarter of 2026, the AZN/SNY antibody recorded sales worth €284 million, up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Besides antibodies, some vaccines have been approved for preventing RSV in certain patients in the United States. These include Pfizer’s Abrysvo, GSK’s Arexvy and Moderna’s mRESVIA.
MRK's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Year to date, shares of Merck have increased 8.9% against the industry’s 5.4% decline. The stock has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Merck is trading at a premium compared to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 17.69 forward earnings, higher than 16.62 for the industry and higher than its 5-year mean of 12.68.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has decreased from $5.18 to $4.93, while the same for 2027 has declined from $9.98 to $9.91 over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MRK's Zacks Rank
Merck currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.