UDR Inc. (UDR Quick QuoteUDR - Free Report) , a premier multifamily real estate investment trust (REIT), is set to announce its first-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on April 29. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues as well as funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Denver, CO-based residential REIT came up with an FFO as adjusted per share of 64 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results reflected year-over-year growth in same-store net operating income (NOI), led by higher occupancy.

In the last four quarters, UDR’s FFO as adjusted per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and surpassed it on the other two, the average surprise being 1.60%. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:

United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. price-eps-surprise | United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Quote

As we approach the release of UDR's first-quarter 2026 earnings report, it is important to examine how this residential REIT is likely to have performed amid the current market conditions.

US Apartment Market in Q1

The U.S. apartment market entered 2026 in better shape than many investors feared, though not yet in a clean pricing recovery. RealPage reported that first-quarter demand rebounded, with absorption of nearly 93,300 units, making it one of the strongest first quarters of the past decade. The snapback helped reverse the late-2025 move-out weakness, but annual demand still ran only a little above 303,000 units, below the roughly 340,000-unit decade average. 

The good news is that the new supply is finally rolling over. Roughly 367,000 units were completed in the year-ending first quarter of 2026, including about 75,200 units in the quarter itself. This is still elevated in absolute terms, but it is a major comedown from the late-2024 peak of more than 589,000-unit annual deliveries and now sits near the 10-year average annual completion volume. 

National occupancy stood at 94.9% in first-quarter 2026, up 10 basis points sequentially but 20 basis points below the prior year. Rents rose 0.4% in the quarter after two consecutive quarterly declines but remained down 0.5% year over year. Concessions continue to do much of the heavy lifting: 25.5% of apartments were offering concessions, with the average incentive at 7.2%.

The weakest rent trends remain in high-supply Sun Belt markets. Austin, Denver and Phoenix posted some of the deepest annual rent cuts, while San Antonio, Tampa, FL, Nashville, TN, and Las Vegas also lost momentum. In contrast, San Francisco, San Jose, CA, and New York showed rent growth, helped by easing supply pressure and better demand. Several Midwest markets, including Chicago, St. Louis, MO, and Cleveland, OH, also posted steady gains because new supply has been more limited.

Factors to Consider Ahead of UDR’s Upcoming Results

UDR readies for first-quarter 2026 earnings with a firmer revenue setup than in 2025. According to the company’s March investor presentation, trends were tracking plan, with blended lease rate growth for the first quarter expected at 1.5% to 2%, roughly double the prior-year pace, with renewal growth above 5% and renewal offers running between 5% and 6%.

Concessions were below fourth-quarter 2025 levels and trending lower, while occupancy was in the mid-96% range and in line with the plan despite a tough 97.1% prior-year comparison. On the fourth-quarter earnings call, management also noted that pricing was improving from October through January.

The demand/supply fundamentals also look better. UDR continues to point to easing supply pressure across its markets, while resident turnover is still improving. In the March presentation, the company said that since the beginning of the year through Feb. 9, resident turnover was down 200 basis points from last year. The retention gains are expected to have continued to help support occupancy and cash flow. 

Geography should help the results as well. San Francisco, New York and Dallas were called out by management as markets trending ahead of expectations. Management noted that Dallas moved back to positive blended lease growth. This mix is expected to have supported a firmer start to the year. Other income remains another source of support. Per the presentation, UDR expected mid-single-digit growth from services such as WiFi, parking and package-related offerings. Management continues to use data and AI tools to improve pricing, screening and resident service.

Overall, UDR looks set for a steadier first-quarter performance. Strong renewals, healthy occupancy, lower concessions and better market conditions are likely to have given the company a solid base for modest same-store revenue growth as 2026 began.

Projections for UDR

Amid these, we expect occupancy to stay still elevated at 96.8%, though down 10-basis-point sequentially.  We estimate rental income to grow 1.8% year over year for the first quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $427.13 million. This indicates a 1.74% year-over-year rise.

UDR expected first-quarter 2026 FFO as adjusted per share in the range of 61-63 cents. Before the first-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO as adjusted per share has remained unrevised at 62 cents in the past month. This suggests a 1.64% increase year over year.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for UDR

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of core FFO per share for UDR this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here. 

Essex Property currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Ventas, Inc. (VTR Quick QuoteVTR - Free Report) and Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST Quick QuoteHST - Free Report) — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Ventas, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on April 27, has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Host Hotels is slated to report quarterly numbers around May 6. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.41 % and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.