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SBUX’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average miss of 12.1%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of SBUX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 43 cents, indicating a rise of 4.9% from 41 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $9.2 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 4.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Starbucks’ Quarterly Results
During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Starbucks’ performance is expected to have reflected continued progress in its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround strategy. The company is likely to have benefited from sustained transaction growth, supported by improving customer demand and broader engagement across both rewards and non-rewards cohorts.
The ongoing rollout of the Green Apron Service model is expected to remain a key operational driver. The initiative focuses on improving service consistency, staffing and service execution, and customer connection, which likely supported better throughput, order accuracy and overall store performance.
Marketing and product innovation are likely to have contributed during the fiscal second quarter. Starbucks’ revised marketing approach and focus on cultural relevance are likely to have supported improvements in brand affinity, visit consideration and first-choice positioning. At the same time, menu innovation, including continued traction in platforms such as protein beverages, likely supported customer engagement and incremental traffic.
The company’s rewards ecosystem likely remained an important engagement driver in the fiscal second quarter. Personalization within the platform likely supported engagement across customer cohorts, contributing to higher customer frequency and transaction growth.
On the international front, Starbucks is expected to have maintained momentum, with comparable sales growth across most major markets. China likely remained a key contributor, supported by product innovation, marketing effectiveness and continued expansion in delivery. Store expansion across international regions likely aided the company's performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International revenues in the fiscal second quarter is pegged at $2 billion, up from $1.87 billion reported a year ago.
Starbucks’ bottom line is likely to have reflected seasonal pressures, as the fiscal second quarter is typically the lowest-margin period. However, lower depreciation and amortization linked to China’s held-for-sale accounting treatment, along with ongoing cost initiatives and investments, may have provided partial offsets. Coffee and tariff-related cost pressures are expected to have peaked in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Says About SBUX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Starbucks this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.
Starbucks’ Earnings ESP: Starbucks has an Earnings ESP of -0.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of Starbucks: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to decline 22.7%. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 26.5%.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to register a 7.1% year-over-year rise. Brinker's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 8.2%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Chipotle’s earnings are expected to register a 17.2% year-over-year decline. Chipotle’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 3.6%.
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Starbucks to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on April 28, after the closing bell.
SBUX’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average miss of 12.1%.
Trend in Estimate Revision of SBUX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 43 cents, indicating a rise of 4.9% from 41 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Starbucks Corporation price-eps-surprise | Starbucks Corporation Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $9.2 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 4.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Starbucks’ Quarterly Results
During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Starbucks’ performance is expected to have reflected continued progress in its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround strategy. The company is likely to have benefited from sustained transaction growth, supported by improving customer demand and broader engagement across both rewards and non-rewards cohorts.
The ongoing rollout of the Green Apron Service model is expected to remain a key operational driver. The initiative focuses on improving service consistency, staffing and service execution, and customer connection, which likely supported better throughput, order accuracy and overall store performance.
Marketing and product innovation are likely to have contributed during the fiscal second quarter. Starbucks’ revised marketing approach and focus on cultural relevance are likely to have supported improvements in brand affinity, visit consideration and first-choice positioning. At the same time, menu innovation, including continued traction in platforms such as protein beverages, likely supported customer engagement and incremental traffic.
The company’s rewards ecosystem likely remained an important engagement driver in the fiscal second quarter. Personalization within the platform likely supported engagement across customer cohorts, contributing to higher customer frequency and transaction growth.
On the international front, Starbucks is expected to have maintained momentum, with comparable sales growth across most major markets. China likely remained a key contributor, supported by product innovation, marketing effectiveness and continued expansion in delivery. Store expansion across international regions likely aided the company's performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International revenues in the fiscal second quarter is pegged at $2 billion, up from $1.87 billion reported a year ago.
Starbucks’ bottom line is likely to have reflected seasonal pressures, as the fiscal second quarter is typically the lowest-margin period. However, lower depreciation and amortization linked to China’s held-for-sale accounting treatment, along with ongoing cost initiatives and investments, may have provided partial offsets. Coffee and tariff-related cost pressures are expected to have peaked in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Our Model Says About SBUX Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Starbucks this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.
Starbucks’ Earnings ESP: Starbucks has an Earnings ESP of -0.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of Starbucks: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.1% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to decline 22.7%. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 26.5%.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to register a 7.1% year-over-year rise. Brinker's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 8.2%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Chipotle’s earnings are expected to register a 17.2% year-over-year decline. Chipotle’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 3.6%.