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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Lilly Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
Lilly will report Q1 2026 results on April 30, with sales seen at $17.78B and EPS at $7.26.
LLY's growth is driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound, though lower pricing may weigh on sales.
New drug launches and rising expenses could put pressure on profits despite strong demand trends.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) will report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 30, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $17.78 billion and $7.26 per share, respectively. Earnings estimates for 2026 have declined from $34.37 per share to $33.59 per share over the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
LLY’s Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while missing in one. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.96%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 7.87%, as seen in the chart below.
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy) or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Shaping LLY’s Upcoming Results
In the first quarter, like the past few quarters, the key drivers of Lilly’s top-line growth are likely to have been its popular GLP-1 drugs, diabetes drug Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound, driven by high demand trends, partially offset by lower pricing.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mounjaro and Zepbound is pegged at $7.32 billion and $4.02 billion, respectively.
In early April, Lilly gained the much-anticipated FDA approval for its once-daily oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo (orforglipron) for treating obesity. Foundayo shipments began soon after. Rival Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) had gained approval for an oral version of its obesity drug, Wegovy, in December 2025 and launched the pill in January 2026. Investors will be keen to know how NVO’s obesity pill affected LLY’s Zepbound market share in the first quarter, as the former enjoyed a first-to-market advantage. Though Foundayo will have no contribution to Lilly’s first-quarter sales, investors will look for updates on the pill’s script trends in the couple of weeks since launch on the first-quarter conference call. Lilly’s shares were down almost 3.7% on Friday as the early prescription numbers for Foundayo were reportedly lower than expected.
Beyond Mounjaro and Zepbound, higher demand and volume growth for Lilly’s key growth drugs like Olumiant and Taltz are likely to have provided top-line support in the first quarter. However, sales of Trulicity are likely to have declined due to competitive dynamics, including patient switches to Mounjaro and lower realized prices.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices (including U.S. Part D changes) are likely to have continued to hurt sales of most drugs, including Mounjaro and Zepbound.
In the fourth quarter, Verzenio sales are likely to have been hurt due to soft demand trends in the United States, partially offset by higher sales in outside United States markets. Emgality’s sales also declined in the past two quarters. It remains to be seen if its sales improved in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant and Emgality is $899.0 million, $760.0 million, $1.3 billion, $771.0 million, $237.0 million and $127.0 million, respectively.
Newer products like Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Kisunla and Omvoh are likely to have contributed significantly to sales growth. Sales of most of these drugs have been improving sequentially for the past couple of quarters.
Sales of most established drugs like Forteo, Humalog and Humulin are likely to have declined in the quarter.
Higher marketing, selling and administrative expenses to support the launch of new products and indications are likely to have hurt operating profits in the quarter. R&D expenses are also expected to have increased as the company expands its pipeline and plans to initiate more phase III studies in 2026.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Lilly’s stock.
LLY’s Price Performance and Valuation
Lilly’s stock has risen 0.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s increase of 9.6%
LLY Stock Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our Investment Thesis on LLY Stock
Lilly boasts a robust portfolio of treatments for diabetes and other cardiometabolic conditions, with its cardiometabolic division emerging as the company’s strongest segment. This success is largely attributed to strong sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Despite being on the market for slightly more than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. These therapies account for more than 50% of the company’s total revenues.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, newer drugs, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla are also contributing to Lilly’s revenue growth.
Lilly is also developing several next-generation, more powerful and more convenient GLP-1–based treatments, including oral options and multi-acting candidates.
Foundayo can prove to be a commercial game-changer for Lilly. In international markets, Lilly expects to launch orforglipron for obesity during 2027. For the type II diabetes indication, Lilly has filed a regulatory application in the EU and plans to file regulatory applications in the United States and other countries later in 2026.
The company is evaluating another key candidate, triple-acting incretin, retatrutide in type II diabetes and obesity, along with other indications like obstructive sleep apnea, knee osteoarthritis, and chronic low back pain, in late-stage studies. Retatrutide represents a new generation of “triple-action” therapy as it targets three biological pathways — GLP-1, GIP and glucagon — whereas existing medicines mostly act on one or two biological pathways.
In the past couple of years, Lilly upped its efforts to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced several M&A deals, the key being the acquisition of Adverum Biotechnologies in December 2025. So far in 2026, it has already announced four proposed acquisitions — Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA - Free Report) , Kelonia Therapeutics, Orna Therapeutics and Ventyx Biosciences — to expand beyond its GLP-1 franchise. These deals primarily strengthen its pipeline in oncology, neuroscience, immunology, and next-generation platforms like RNA and cell therapy.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products have been declining in the United States. Price is expected to continue to be a drag on top-line growth in the low to mid-teens percentage in 2026. Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is a key headwind. Also, sales of late-life cycle products like Trulicity, Taltz and Verzenio are expected to be flat to down in 2026.
Stay Invested in LLY’s Stock
Despite its expensive valuation, Lilly is a great stock to have in one’s portfolio, given its significant price appreciation, its product and pipeline portfolio in high-growth therapeutic areas like obesity, robust growth prospects and bullish analyst sentiment.
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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Lilly Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) will report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 30, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $17.78 billion and $7.26 per share, respectively. Earnings estimates for 2026 have declined from $34.37 per share to $33.59 per share over the past 30 days.
LLY’s Earnings Surprise History
The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while missing in one. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.96%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 7.87%, as seen in the chart below.
What Does Our Model Say for Lilly?
Lilly has an Earnings ESP of -4.83% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy) or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Shaping LLY’s Upcoming Results
In the first quarter, like the past few quarters, the key drivers of Lilly’s top-line growth are likely to have been its popular GLP-1 drugs, diabetes drug Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound, driven by high demand trends, partially offset by lower pricing.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mounjaro and Zepbound is pegged at $7.32 billion and $4.02 billion, respectively.
In early April, Lilly gained the much-anticipated FDA approval for its once-daily oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo (orforglipron) for treating obesity. Foundayo shipments began soon after. Rival Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) had gained approval for an oral version of its obesity drug, Wegovy, in December 2025 and launched the pill in January 2026. Investors will be keen to know how NVO’s obesity pill affected LLY’s Zepbound market share in the first quarter, as the former enjoyed a first-to-market advantage. Though Foundayo will have no contribution to Lilly’s first-quarter sales, investors will look for updates on the pill’s script trends in the couple of weeks since launch on the first-quarter conference call. Lilly’s shares were down almost 3.7% on Friday as the early prescription numbers for Foundayo were reportedly lower than expected.
Beyond Mounjaro and Zepbound, higher demand and volume growth for Lilly’s key growth drugs like Olumiant and Taltz are likely to have provided top-line support in the first quarter. However, sales of Trulicity are likely to have declined due to competitive dynamics, including patient switches to Mounjaro and lower realized prices.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices (including U.S. Part D changes) are likely to have continued to hurt sales of most drugs, including Mounjaro and Zepbound.
In the fourth quarter, Verzenio sales are likely to have been hurt due to soft demand trends in the United States, partially offset by higher sales in outside United States markets. Emgality’s sales also declined in the past two quarters. It remains to be seen if its sales improved in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant and Emgality is $899.0 million, $760.0 million, $1.3 billion, $771.0 million, $237.0 million and $127.0 million, respectively.
Newer products like Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Kisunla and Omvoh are likely to have contributed significantly to sales growth. Sales of most of these drugs have been improving sequentially for the past couple of quarters.
Sales of most established drugs like Forteo, Humalog and Humulin are likely to have declined in the quarter.
Higher marketing, selling and administrative expenses to support the launch of new products and indications are likely to have hurt operating profits in the quarter. R&D expenses are also expected to have increased as the company expands its pipeline and plans to initiate more phase III studies in 2026.
Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Lilly’s stock.
LLY’s Price Performance and Valuation
Lilly’s stock has risen 0.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s increase of 9.6%
LLY Stock Performance
The stock is trading at a premium to the industry, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Valuation
Our Investment Thesis on LLY Stock
Lilly boasts a robust portfolio of treatments for diabetes and other cardiometabolic conditions, with its cardiometabolic division emerging as the company’s strongest segment. This success is largely attributed to strong sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Despite being on the market for slightly more than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. These therapies account for more than 50% of the company’s total revenues.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, newer drugs, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla are also contributing to Lilly’s revenue growth.
Lilly is also developing several next-generation, more powerful and more convenient GLP-1–based treatments, including oral options and multi-acting candidates.
Foundayo can prove to be a commercial game-changer for Lilly. In international markets, Lilly expects to launch orforglipron for obesity during 2027. For the type II diabetes indication, Lilly has filed a regulatory application in the EU and plans to file regulatory applications in the United States and other countries later in 2026.
The company is evaluating another key candidate, triple-acting incretin, retatrutide in type II diabetes and obesity, along with other indications like obstructive sleep apnea, knee osteoarthritis, and chronic low back pain, in late-stage studies. Retatrutide represents a new generation of “triple-action” therapy as it targets three biological pathways — GLP-1, GIP and glucagon — whereas existing medicines mostly act on one or two biological pathways.
In the past couple of years, Lilly upped its efforts to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced several M&A deals, the key being the acquisition of Adverum Biotechnologies in December 2025. So far in 2026, it has already announced four proposed acquisitions — Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA - Free Report) , Kelonia Therapeutics, Orna Therapeutics and Ventyx Biosciences — to expand beyond its GLP-1 franchise. These deals primarily strengthen its pipeline in oncology, neuroscience, immunology, and next-generation platforms like RNA and cell therapy.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products have been declining in the United States. Price is expected to continue to be a drag on top-line growth in the low to mid-teens percentage in 2026. Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is a key headwind. Also, sales of late-life cycle products like Trulicity, Taltz and Verzenio are expected to be flat to down in 2026.
Stay Invested in LLY’s Stock
Despite its expensive valuation, Lilly is a great stock to have in one’s portfolio, given its significant price appreciation, its product and pipeline portfolio in high-growth therapeutic areas like obesity, robust growth prospects and bullish analyst sentiment.