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JPM Off to a Solid 2026 Start: Should Investors Buy the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • JPMorgan beat Q1 2026 estimates as Markets revenue jumped 20% and IB fees rose 38%.
  • JPMorgan trimmed its 2026 NII outlook to about $103B, signaling potential moderation later.
  • JPMorgan expects $105B in 2026 expenses, with higher tech, comp, branches and card costs.

JPMorgan’s (JPM - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 results, announced on April 14, were impressive. The company’s top and bottom-line numbers outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate, aided by a record Markets performance, robust IB business and higher net interest income (NII).

In the Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB) segment, Markets revenues rose 20% year over year to $11.6 billion, supported by gains in both Fixed Income Markets and Equity Markets. Investment banking (IB) revenues in the CIB segment rose 38% to $3.14 billion, driven by higher advisory and equity underwriting fees, partly offset by lower debt underwriting fees. Likewise, NII was up 9% to $25.37 billion on a reported basis, driven by higher deposit balances and higher revolving balances in Card Services, partly offset by the impact of lower rates.

Against such a robust performance, JPMorgan stock currently trades at a discount to the industry. The stock is trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 3.03X, below the industry’s 3.15X.

JPM’s P/TB
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

If we compare JPMorgan’s current valuation with two of its closest peers – Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup (C - Free Report) – it appears expensive. At present, Bank of America has a P/TB of 1.89X, while Citigroup is trading at a P/TB of 1.35X.

Despite being a prominent name in the U.S. banking sector, JPM’s not-so-favorable valuation compared with its peers may compel investors to stay away from the stock despite its robust quarterly performance. Similar to JPMorgan, the quarterly performance of Bank of America and Citigroup was strong. Both recorded an increase in earnings and revenues on a year-over-year basis and outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate on the back of higher NII and a solid capital markets business.

Coming back to JPM, should investors buy the stock solely because of its inexpensive valuation? Not necessarily. While valuation is an important consideration, it cannot be the only factor driving an investment decision. Investors must also assess the underlying fundamentals, earnings potential and long-term prospects before deciding whether the stock deserves a place in their portfolio.

Beyond Robust Q1 2026: Other Factors at Play for JPMorgan

NII Trajectory: Last year, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 75 basis points (bps), following a 50-bp cut in 2024. Although lower rates remain a headwind for JPMorgan’s asset-sensitive balance sheet, balance sheet growth and higher revolving card balances are still expected to support continued NII expansion. This dynamic was evident in first-quarter 2026 results too.

Building on this, JPMorgan now expects NII for 2026 to be approximately $103 billion, or up more than 7% year over year. Previously, the company targeted NII to be $104.5 billion. NII excluding Markets is expected to be almost $95 billion (unchanged from the prior guidance). This implies that Markets NII are likely to witness weakness later this year after a robust performance in the first quarter.

Unlike JPM, Bank of America expects its 2026 NII to increase 6-8% year over year, higher than its prior outlook of 5-7%, supported by deposit stability, modest loan growth and a more favorable rate backdrop. Meanwhile, Citigroup continues to guide 5-6% NII growth this year, after delivering 11% year-over-year growth in 2025. The bank’s outlook is underpinned by a steadier rate environment and constructive balance sheet trends.

Fee Income to Witness More Upside: Easier monetary policy will lift client activity, deal flow and asset values, supporting a broad rebound in JPMorgan’s non-interest income. Lower borrowing costs are expected to encourage corporate financing, including debt issuance, M&As and equity offerings, extending the recovery in capital markets after a subdued 2022-2023. JPMorgan’s leading investment banking (IB) franchise (ranked #1 globally with a 9.8% wallet share in the first quarter of 2026) positions it to capture a larger share of advisory and underwriting fees as conditions become more supportive, though macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk.

Rate transitions have heightened volatility in fixed income, currencies and commodities, thus boosting client hedging and trading activity. With a top-tier trading platform, JPMorgan is positioned to benefit from stronger FICC and equities volumes as investors reposition for a lower-rate environment, even as trading activity normalizes over time.

In wealth and asset management, declining yields often shift investor preferences toward equities and alternatives, helping drive market appreciation, inflows and higher fees. Improved sentiment should support growth in assets under management and fee revenues across JPMorgan’s private banking and wealth platforms.

Branch Openings & Opportunistic Acquisitions: With 5,095 branches as of March 31, 2026, more than any other U.S. bank and a presence in all 48 contiguous states, JPM continues to invest in brick-and-mortar to strengthen its competitive edge in relationship banking, despite the digital shift. JPMorgan plans to open 500 more by 2027. These efforts will deepen relationships and boost cross-selling across mortgages, loans, investments and credit cards.

JPMorgan isn’t alone in branch expansion. Bank of America is growing its financial center network, with plans to open 150 more centers by 2027, despite most interactions being digital.

JPMorgan has expanded through strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank, partnerships with Cleareye.ai and Aumni, and the 2023 purchase of First Republic Bank. These moves boosted profits and supported its strategy to diversify revenues and grow digital and fee-based offerings.

Tech Spendings: JPMorgan continues to view technology as a long-term growth driver rather than a discretionary expense. For 2026, management expects technology spending of about $19.8 billion, up 10% year over year, driven by business growth, demand for new capabilities, and higher infrastructure, software and hardware costs. While the bank is past peak infrastructure modernization, investment is now shifting toward modernizing applications and data to better capture AI-driven opportunities.

AI remains central to this strategy. JPM has expanded AI use cases across customer service, personalized insights and software development, helping improve efficiency and business outcomes. Its internal GenAI tools are also moving employees from experimentation to secure integration across workflows and applications.

Beyond AI, the bank is investing in blockchain, tokenization and broader platform innovation to strengthen payments, custody and client solutions, supporting long-term business growth.

Fortress Balance Sheet and Solid Liquidity: As of March 31, 2026, the company had total debt of $516.8 billion (the majority of this is long-term in nature). The company's cash and due from banks and deposits with banks were $312.1 billion on the same date. The company maintains long-term issuer ratings A-/AA-/A1 from Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively.

Hence, JPMorgan continues to reward shareholders handsomely. It cleared the 2025 stress test impressively and announced an increase in its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share, as well as authorized a new share repurchase program worth $50 billion. As of March 31, 2026, almost $25.7 billion in authorization remained available.

Similar to JPM, Bank of America and Citigroup cleared the 2025 stress test. Following this, Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 8% to 28 cents per share and authorized a new $40 billion share repurchase program. Citigroup also announced a dividend hike of 7% to 60 cents per share. It is continuing with the previously announced buyback plan, which had $0.5 billion worth of authorization remaining as of March 31, 2026.

Asset Quality: Lower rates will likely support JPMorgan's asset quality, as lower rates will ease debt-service burdens and improve borrower solvency. The overall effect is expected to be moderate and vary by loan segment and macro conditions. Variable-rate consumer and leveraged corporate portfolios might see the most direct benefit, reflecting the lower risk of near-term credit losses as rates fall.

JPMorgan expects that lower rates will help stabilize or even modestly improve overall credit performance, especially in consumer and corporate loan books, as long as the U.S. economy remains resilient. Hence, JPMorgan expects the card service NCO rate to be roughly 3.4%.

However, the ongoing Middle East conflict is likely to hurt JPMorgan’s asset quality at least in the near-term as it builds reserves to counter the fallout of rising prices.

How to Approach the JPMorgan Stock Now?

Since the start of the year, U.S. markets have remained subdued as shifting AI expectations, sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions (including the Middle East conflict) weighed on sentiment. JPMorgan has not been immune to these pressures.

This year, shares of JPMorgan have lost 3.3% against a 4.8% rise for the S&P 500 Index. Likewise, Bank of America has declined 4.4%, while Citigroup shares have gained 10.6%, in the same time frame.

YTD Price Performance
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Analysts are bullish on JPMorgan’s prospects, with earnings estimates for 2026 revised upward over the past month, while those for 2027 have been moved down marginally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a 9.9% and 5.3% year-over-year increase, respectively.

Earnings Estimates
 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

JPMorgan continues to project non-interest expenses of $105 billion this year, up more than 9% from 2025. Apart from 10% increase in tech spending, primary reasons for higher expenses include an increase in growth and volume-related spending (like compensation costs, costs for branching/expansion and costs related to credit card business growth), structural inflation-related costs and general operating overhead expenses.

JPM benefited from strong Markets revenues, higher IB fees and a 9% rise in NII, underscoring the strength of its diversified franchise. However, the stock’s valuation is not compelling when compared with key peers. While JPM trades below the industry on a price-to-tangible book basis, it remains more expensive than Bank of America and Citigroup, both of which also delivered strong quarterly results.

Further, JPMorgan lowered its 2026 NII outlook to nearly $103 billion from the prior $104.5 billion view, indicating some moderation ahead. Elevated expenses, including higher technology, compensation, branch expansion and credit card-related costs, may also weigh on profitability. Given near-term macro, geopolitical and valuation concerns, investors should wait for a better entry point before adding JPMorgan shares to their portfolio.

At present, JPMorgan carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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