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Par Pacific's 2026 Setup Hinges on Rockies Capture Rebound
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Key Takeaways
PARR's 2026 outlook hinges on restoring Rockies margin capture while throughput stays strong.
Montana Q4 capture fell to 72% from coker downtime, asphalt-heavy sales and higher-cost crude.
Each $1 WCS vs WTI move at 40 to 50 kbpd Rockies runs can add $15 to $16M annual EBITDA.
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR - Free Report) is a refining company where results often come down to “capture,” or how much of the available regional margin it retains after downtime and mix effects. The 2026 outlook centers on rebuilding capture in the Rockies while sustaining strong throughput across the system.
PARR’s Footprint and Segment Earnings Drivers
Par Pacific owns four refineries with a combined crude throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day: Kapolei, Hawaii; Newcastle, Wyoming; Tacoma, Washington; and Billings, Montana. The system serves Hawaii and markets from Washington through the Dakotas and Wyoming.
The company reports three segments. Refining sells finished products through wholesale, export, and retail channels. Retail includes fuel outlets and convenience stores, with Hele and licensed 76 brands in Hawaii and nomnom stores in the Pacific Northwest. Logistics provides terminals, pipelines, trucking, marine, storage, and distribution services supporting inter-island and West Coast flows.
Par Pacific’s 2025 Throughput Shows Resilience
In 2025, the system achieved a record annual throughput of about 188,000 barrels per day. Fourth-quarter throughput was 191 thousand barrels per day, led by Hawaii at 87 thousand barrels per day. Full-year system capture was 94%, and fourth-quarter capture was 93%.
Montana executed its largest-ever turnaround and subsequently demonstrated its potential with record throughput levels, reinforcing how reliability and run rates support capture.
Montana Capture Target and What Fell in Q4
Management targets 90% to 100% annual margin capture in Montana. Fourth-quarter 2025 capture slipped to 72%, which management viewed as transitory.
The shortfall was tied to coker downtime, elevated asphalt sales, and a lighter, higher-cost crude slate. If unit availability improves and mix normalizes, capture can move back toward the targeted range.
PARR’s WCS Differential Leverage in the Rockies
PARR has measurable leverage to the Western Canadian Select (WCS) differential versus WTI. At mid-cycle, Rockies runs of 40 to 50 thousand barrels per day, each $1 move in the differential equates to roughly $15 million to $16 million of annual EBITDA.
The company expects WCS to trend back toward mid-cycle levels as crude flows rebalance, which would benefit earnings alongside improved reliability and capture.
PARR Risks From Cracks, Outages, and Turnarounds
Margin signals can compress earnings. Management cited a quarter-to-date combined refining index of about $6.70 per barrel versus a $13.13 per barrel average in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Execution risk also matters. A regional power outage in Northern Wyoming reduced throughput and impacted margins, with lower diesel sales estimated at $4 million and maintenance adding $3 million to operating costs. A planned Hawaii refinery turnaround in 2026 could pressure capture and costs temporarily.
Peers like Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) also see earnings swing with crack spreads and unplanned downtime. The same push-and-pull applies to PARR, sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The 2026 question is whether the Rockies capture rebounds while operations stay steady, especially with a planned Hawaii turnaround.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Par Pacific's 2026 Setup Hinges on Rockies Capture Rebound
Key Takeaways
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR - Free Report) is a refining company where results often come down to “capture,” or how much of the available regional margin it retains after downtime and mix effects. The 2026 outlook centers on rebuilding capture in the Rockies while sustaining strong throughput across the system.
PARR’s Footprint and Segment Earnings Drivers
Par Pacific owns four refineries with a combined crude throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day: Kapolei, Hawaii; Newcastle, Wyoming; Tacoma, Washington; and Billings, Montana. The system serves Hawaii and markets from Washington through the Dakotas and Wyoming.
The company reports three segments. Refining sells finished products through wholesale, export, and retail channels. Retail includes fuel outlets and convenience stores, with Hele and licensed 76 brands in Hawaii and nomnom stores in the Pacific Northwest. Logistics provides terminals, pipelines, trucking, marine, storage, and distribution services supporting inter-island and West Coast flows.
Par Pacific’s 2025 Throughput Shows Resilience
In 2025, the system achieved a record annual throughput of about 188,000 barrels per day. Fourth-quarter throughput was 191 thousand barrels per day, led by Hawaii at 87 thousand barrels per day. Full-year system capture was 94%, and fourth-quarter capture was 93%.
Montana executed its largest-ever turnaround and subsequently demonstrated its potential with record throughput levels, reinforcing how reliability and run rates support capture.
Montana Capture Target and What Fell in Q4
Management targets 90% to 100% annual margin capture in Montana. Fourth-quarter 2025 capture slipped to 72%, which management viewed as transitory.
The shortfall was tied to coker downtime, elevated asphalt sales, and a lighter, higher-cost crude slate. If unit availability improves and mix normalizes, capture can move back toward the targeted range.
PARR’s WCS Differential Leverage in the Rockies
PARR has measurable leverage to the Western Canadian Select (WCS) differential versus WTI. At mid-cycle, Rockies runs of 40 to 50 thousand barrels per day, each $1 move in the differential equates to roughly $15 million to $16 million of annual EBITDA.
The company expects WCS to trend back toward mid-cycle levels as crude flows rebalance, which would benefit earnings alongside improved reliability and capture.
PARR Risks From Cracks, Outages, and Turnarounds
Margin signals can compress earnings. Management cited a quarter-to-date combined refining index of about $6.70 per barrel versus a $13.13 per barrel average in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Execution risk also matters. A regional power outage in Northern Wyoming reduced throughput and impacted margins, with lower diesel sales estimated at $4 million and maintenance adding $3 million to operating costs. A planned Hawaii refinery turnaround in 2026 could pressure capture and costs temporarily.
Peers like Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) also see earnings swing with crack spreads and unplanned downtime. The same push-and-pull applies to PARR, sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The 2026 question is whether the Rockies capture rebounds while operations stay steady, especially with a planned Hawaii turnaround.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.