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ON Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • ON Semiconductor to report Q1 2026 on May 4, guiding revenues $1.435-$1.535B and EPS 56-66 cents.
  • ON benefits from auto & industrial stabilization, along with AI data center and Treo gains.
  • ON faced macro weakness, seasonal softness and ~700 bps gross margin headwind from underutilization.

On Semiconductor (ON - Free Report) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 4.

For the to-be-reported quarter, ON expects revenues between $1.435 billion and $1.535 billion. Earnings are expected to be in the range of 56-66 cents per share.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $1.49 billion, suggesting an increase of 2.86% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at 62 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, and indicates an increase of 12.73% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

On Semiconductor’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once in the remaining, with the average surprise being 3.56%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors Likely to Influence ON’s Q1 Performance

ON’s first-quarter 2026 performance is expected to have benefited from stabilization in its core segments, automotive and industrial. This follows modest sequential growth of approximately 1% in automotive revenues, reflecting stabilization after inventory correction. Industrial revenues grew approximately 4%, supported by factory automation and traditional industrial demand in the fourth quarter of 2025. This stabilization is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

In the AI data-center market, ON Semiconductor is likely to have benefited from its broad power semiconductor portfolio (Si, SiC, GaN), ability to deliver high efficiency across the entire power tree, leadership in high-voltage solutions and growing adoption of advanced architectures. These factors are expected to have driven revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. 

AI data center revenues rose sharply from near-negligible levels in 2024 to more than $250 million in 2025. The company expects this momentum to continue into 2026, with high-teens sequential growth in the first quarter. It also anticipates sustained strong year-over-year expansion. On Semiconductor’s design wins in both automotive and industrial markets reflect a broad global engagement.

Ongoing momentum in the Treo platform is expected to have continued in the first quarter of 2026. Treo’s differentiated technology was a key growth driver in the fourth quarter of 2025, with product sampling doubling year over year and a design funnel exceeding $1 billion, supporting a shift toward higher-margin products across automotive and industrial applications. This trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the fourth quarter of 2025 was negatively impacted by a weak macro demand environment, seasonal softness, declines in non-AI “other” revenues and ongoing exits of non-core businesses, along with lower manufacturing utilization.

What Our Model Says About ON

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ON Semiconductor this time around. Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

ON currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:

Arista Networks (ANET - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.79% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Arista Networks shares have gained 26.2% in the year-to-date period. Arista Networks is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 5.

Audioeye (AEYE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.62% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Audioeye shares have declined 28.4% in the year-to-date period. Audioeye is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 13.

CDW (CDW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.90% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

CDW shares have lost 2.4% in the year-to-date period. CDW is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 6.

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