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Factors You Need to Know Ahead of Magnolia's Q1 Earnings Release
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Key Takeaways
Magnolia Oil & Gas will report Q1 earnings May 6, with EPS projected at 49 cents and revenues at $335M.
MGY may benefit from higher oil prices, unhedged exposure and rising production volumes.
MGY faces revenue declines and higher operating costs, including rising expenses across key segments.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 49 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $335.12 million.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MGY’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of MGY’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last quarter, the Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported net profit of 37 cents per share, which marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents. This was primarily driven by record quarterly production volumes attributed to strong well productivity in the company’s Giddings asset. The company’s total revenues were $318 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $312 million, driven by higher revenues from natural gas. MGY’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 3.51%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged, with a downward revision recorded in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 10.91% year-over-year decrease. Additionally, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a decline of 4.33% from the year-ago period’s level.
Factors to Consider Ahead of MGY’s Q1 Release
MGY makes revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas. The company explores these properties, drills wells to extract the oil and gas and sells the resources to other energy companies. By focusing on areas such as the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk, MGY profits from the difference between the costs of drilling and production and the income from selling the extracted oil and gas.
The company is likely to have benefited from stronger oil prices toward the end of the to-be-reported quarter, as the month of March witnessed a sharp rally driven by geopolitical disruptions, which is expected to have lifted average realized prices sequentially.
Magnolia's largely unhedged position is expected to have allowed it to fully capture the upside in commodity prices, supporting higher revenues, margins and operating cash flows. Steady production growth is likely to have provided incremental volume support, which, combined with improved pricing, might have driven earnings expansion on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. As per our model, we expect MGY to report higher daily production volumes.
Oil production, in thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), is projected to increase 3.7% year over year, while natural gas liquids production, in MBbls/d, is expected to rise 8.9%. Gas production, in million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d), is anticipated to grow 5.2% year over year. Additionally, Magnolia’s disciplined capital spending strategy is expected to have enhanced operating efficiency and free cash flow generation, particularly in a higher price environment.
On the bearish side, MGY’s revenues are likely to have come under pressure in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is expected to be down from the year-ago quarter’s $350 million. According to our model, we expect the company’s oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas revenues to decrease 17.6%, 2.3% and 6.4%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter. Additionally. The appreciation in MGY’s costs is expected to have dented its bottom line.
To begin with, MGY’s total operating expenses are expected to reach $218.9 million in the first quarter, which is 2.1% up from last quarter’s level of $214.5 million. According to our model, the company’s lease operating expenses, gathering, transportation and processing costs, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses are expected to increase 9.8%, 3.9% and 9%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter.
What Does Our Model Say About MGY Stock?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Magnolia this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. This is exactly the case here.
MGY’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +5.38%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MGY’s Zacks Rank: Magnolia currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHEL’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 52.38% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $248.04 billion, SHEL’s shares have risen 37.9% in a year.
Ovintiv (OVV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 11.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ovintiv’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 32.64% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $16.56 billion, Ovintiv’s shares have risen 81.9% in a year.
Venture Global, Inc. (VG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.36% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 12.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Venture Global’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 25% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $29.88 billion, Venture Global’s shares have risen 56.9% in a year.
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Factors You Need to Know Ahead of Magnolia's Q1 Earnings Release
Key Takeaways
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 49 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $335.12 million.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MGY’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of MGY’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last quarter, the Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported net profit of 37 cents per share, which marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents. This was primarily driven by record quarterly production volumes attributed to strong well productivity in the company’s Giddings asset. The company’s total revenues were $318 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $312 million, driven by higher revenues from natural gas. MGY’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 3.51%.
This is depicted in the graph below:
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Price and EPS Surprise
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp price-eps-surprise | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Quote
Trend in MGY’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged, with a downward revision recorded in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 10.91% year-over-year decrease. Additionally, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a decline of 4.33% from the year-ago period’s level.
Factors to Consider Ahead of MGY’s Q1 Release
MGY makes revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas. The company explores these properties, drills wells to extract the oil and gas and sells the resources to other energy companies. By focusing on areas such as the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk, MGY profits from the difference between the costs of drilling and production and the income from selling the extracted oil and gas.
The company is likely to have benefited from stronger oil prices toward the end of the to-be-reported quarter, as the month of March witnessed a sharp rally driven by geopolitical disruptions, which is expected to have lifted average realized prices sequentially.
Magnolia's largely unhedged position is expected to have allowed it to fully capture the upside in commodity prices, supporting higher revenues, margins and operating cash flows. Steady production growth is likely to have provided incremental volume support, which, combined with improved pricing, might have driven earnings expansion on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. As per our model, we expect MGY to report higher daily production volumes.
Oil production, in thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), is projected to increase 3.7% year over year, while natural gas liquids production, in MBbls/d, is expected to rise 8.9%. Gas production, in million cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d), is anticipated to grow 5.2% year over year. Additionally, Magnolia’s disciplined capital spending strategy is expected to have enhanced operating efficiency and free cash flow generation, particularly in a higher price environment.
On the bearish side, MGY’s revenues are likely to have come under pressure in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is expected to be down from the year-ago quarter’s $350 million. According to our model, we expect the company’s oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas revenues to decrease 17.6%, 2.3% and 6.4%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter. Additionally. The appreciation in MGY’s costs is expected to have dented its bottom line.
To begin with, MGY’s total operating expenses are expected to reach $218.9 million in the first quarter, which is 2.1% up from last quarter’s level of $214.5 million. According to our model, the company’s lease operating expenses, gathering, transportation and processing costs, and depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses are expected to increase 9.8%, 3.9% and 9%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter.
What Does Our Model Say About MGY Stock?
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Magnolia this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. This is exactly the case here.
MGY’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +5.38%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MGY’s Zacks Rank: Magnolia currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Shell (SHEL - Free Report) is scheduled to release earnings on May 7. The firm has an Earnings ESP of +3.56% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SHEL’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 52.38% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $248.04 billion, SHEL’s shares have risen 37.9% in a year.
Ovintiv (OVV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 11.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ovintiv’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 32.64% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $16.56 billion, Ovintiv’s shares have risen 81.9% in a year.
Venture Global, Inc. (VG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.36% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 12.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Venture Global’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 25% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $29.88 billion, Venture Global’s shares have risen 56.9% in a year.